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Wednesday September 4, 2013 - 10:07:21 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: PMI Services data easing concerns over global slowdown

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: PMI Services data easing concerns over global slowdown
Wed, 04 Sep 2013 5:36 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US Senate Foreign Relations committee announces resolution draft on Syria; Action to be limited to 60-days with a possible 30-day extension; Opposes any use of US forces on ground.
-China: Aug HSBC PMI Services rises to 52.8 from 51.3 prior; five-month high; other BRICS mixed with Russia returning to growth while India contracts for a 2nd month
- Australia Q2 GDP slightly better than expectations with QoQ at +0.6% vs. +0.5%e
- European PMI Services continue to hint worst might be behind for Europe; UK continues to outperform expectations
- G20 begins on Thursday in Russia. Market looking for signs of policy co-ordination to provide support for EM (expectations is not high))
- German 5-year BOBL auction yield of 1.00% the highest since Dec 2011


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Aug HSBC/Markit Services PMI: 47.6 v 47.9 prior; second straight contraction and lowest reading since April 2009
- (RU) Russia Aug Services PMI: 51.8 v 49.5e; first growth in 3 months

- (IE) Ireland Aug Investec Services PMI: 61.6 v 57.6 prior; 6-year high, 13th consecutive month of expansion
- (SE) Sweden Aug PMI Services: 53.7 v 54.2e; second month of growth
- (FR) France July PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.3% v -0.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5% prelim
- (CZ) Czech July Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.0% v 2.7%e
- (RO) Romania Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary July Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.5%e
- (EU) ECB 140M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 121M prior; 86.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 80.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Aug Services PMI: 50.4 v 49.5e; (1st growth since Jun 2011 after 25 contractions)
- (IT) Italy Aug PMI Services: 48.8 v 49.9e; 27th straight month of contraction
- (FR) France Aug Final PMI Services: 48.9 v 47.7e; confirms 12th straight monthly contraction
- (DE) Germany Aug Final PMI Services: 52.8 v 52.4e; confirms 4th straight month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Final PMI Services: 50.7 v 51.0e; PMI Composite: 51.5 v 51.7e

- (CZ) Czech Q2 Current Account Balance (CZK): -106.8M v +112.2Be
- (BR) Brazil Aug FIPE CPI: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (UK) Aug PMI Services: 60.5 v 59.7e; highest since Dec 2006
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.7%e
- 05:00 (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Preliminary Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Gross Fix Capital Q/Q: +0.4% v -0.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone July Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.3%e

Fixed income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 1.5% 2023 bond; Yield: 2.5876% v 2.3914% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 0 (nil) in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $0.0 prior; 10th straight week of no allotment
- (DE) Germany sold 4.039B in 0.25% 2018 BOBL; Avg Yield: 1.00% (highest since Dec 2011) v 0.64% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.50%, FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,437, DAX -0.40% at 8,148, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,948, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 8,398, FTSE MIB -1.6% at 16,677, SMI -0.20% at 7,848, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,637]

- Market Focal Points: Spain Aug Services PMI shows first expansion since mid-2011, UK services PMI highest since late 2006, Equity markets largely ignore PMI data, Italy's FTSE MIB lags amid weakness in banking sector and wider debt spreads, Ryanair profit warning weighs on airlines, Upcoming US data (Fed Beige Book)

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Ryanair RYA.UK -14% (profit warning), EasyJet EZJ.UK -7% (tracking losses in Ryanair), Ashtead AHT.UK -5% (profit-taking after earnings), ProsiebenSat PSM.DE -5% (share placement); SAS SAS.SE +8% (Q3 profits rose y/y)]
- Consumer Staples [Delhaize DELB.BE -7% (CEO change)]
- Financials [Hargreaves Lansdown HL.UK -2.5% (profit taking after earnings)]
- Technology [Wirecard WDI.DE +4.5% (broker commentary)]
- Telecom [Iliad ILD.FR -3% (share prices)]
- Healthcare [Transgene TNG.FR (Phase II study missed primary endpoint)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Financials -0.60%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.60%, Consumer Cyclical -0.60%, Energy -0.30%, Utilities -0.30%, Telecom -0.30%, Basic Materials -0.10%; Industrials +0.10%]

Speakers:
- Troika said to be objecting to the plans of the Greek govt to overhaul state companies.
Troika looking for a more decisive solution that could include lay-offs without compensation and/or bankruptcy
- Portugal said seek discussion on precautionary credit line with Troika as the country defines its planned exit from the bailout program
- IMF paper for G20 noted that near term growth projections for Emerging economies was being revised downward and the greatest worry was a prolonged period of slow global growth. EM economies should allow currencies to respond to fundamentals but intervention may be necessary to prevent excessive volatility
- China Fin Min Lou Jiwei stated that he expected fiscal revenue to 'gradually' accelerate until the end of 2013. China to regulate local govt bond issuance to reduce debt risk and hoped to finish VAT reform by 2015
- EU's Van Rompuy: No military solution seen for Syria and urged parties to negotiate a resoluton; There can be no impunity for chemical-arms used in Syria

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was steady in the session despite an improvement in Euro Zone PMI Services. President Obama was likely to gain support for military action against Syria weighed on risk appetite.
- The GBP continued to benefit from economic data releases. The PMI Services came in at its beat reading since late 2006. ING analyst noted that the BoE might start tightening before H1 2015 due to stronger data well ahead of the Q3 2016 suggested by the Central Bank
- AUD/USD rebounded during Asia aided by short covering activity after Australia Q2 GDP slightly beat expectations. Aussy also benefited from China HSBC services PMI hitting a five month high of 52.8. Swaps markets now see odds-on of RBA cash target rate remaining unchanged through the end of 2013.
- INR currency (Rupee) opened weaker in early trade around INR68.60 before coming off the lows on suspected intervention just ahead of fresh record levels
- IMF made some pre-G20 comments ahead of the meeting that kicks off from Russia on Thursday. IMF noted that advanced economies led by the United States would increasingly drive global growth, with emerging countries at risk of slowing due to tighter US monetary policy

Political/In the Papers:
-(GR) ESM's Regling: Cannot yet say whether or not Greece will require a 3rd bailout, Greece has made a lot of progress but perhaps not enough; Notes there has been no formal talks or requests for a Ireland credit line
- (GR) Germany's Deputy Fin Min Kampeter said Greece will have a financing gap of 6.5B in 2015 - German Press; Says Greece could need more assistance from 2017-2022
- (ES) Troika inspectors to return to Spain on Sep 23rd to examine the banking situation and insure Spain is meeting its bailout requirements
- (SY) US Sen Menendez: Possible that the US Senate may vote on the resolution for Congressional approval of Syria action as early as tomorrow - press
-(SY) US Senate Majority leader Reid indicates that the Senate could overcome a filibuster should it arise, and will pass a resolution on Syria
- (SY) US Senate Foreign Relations committee announces resolution draft on Syria; Action to be limited to 60-days with a possible 30-day extension - press; Opposes any use of US forces on ground.
- (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) Will support President Obama's call for action in Syria, use of chemical weapons in Syria must be responded to and only the US is capable of responding - comments post meeting with Obama
- (JP) BOJ said to be considering additional easing if sales tax is raised - Japanese press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe to announce his decision on the proposed sales tax increase on Oct 2 - Japan press
- (JP) Former Japan Fin Min official Sakakibara ('Mr Yen'): Sees no chance for yen to suddenly weaken to 105-110 - financial press interview

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EEAS Annual Conference for EU Heads of Delegations
- (SE) President Obama in Sweden
- (US) Congressional hearings on Syria
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to present pension overall plan
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 3.75% 2020 Bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -3.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 13.5% prior; Live Register Level: No est v 419.2 prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 30th: no est v -2.5% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB13/6B in May 2016 bond (prior yield 6.32% on Aug 21st)
- 07:30 (US) Aug Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 37.7K prior; Y/Y: no est v 2.3% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (IN) Incoming RBI Gov Rajan statement
- 08:30 (US) July Trade Balance: -$38.6Be v -$34.2B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$250Me v -C$470M prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Aug PMI Services: No est v 50.3 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 97.4e v 98.0 prior
- 09:45 (US) Aug ISM New York: no est v 67.8 prior
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:00 (US) Sept IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.0e v45.1 prior
- 11:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Hanover
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in in Trier
- 11:00 (UK) BOE's Haldane in London
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $50B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho in Parliament
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedibanki) Minutes
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Williams in OR
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Gieen
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Beige Book
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Nordheide
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Aug PPI M/M: no est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 17:00 (US) Aug Total Vehicle Sales: No est v 15.60M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: No est v 12.09M prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.15e v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.3% prelim

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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