Thursday September 5, 2013 - 03:30:25 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 05-Sep-2013 -0327 GMT
Equities are up globally.
The Dow (14930.87, +0.65%) has risen sharply after registering a low of 14799.01 It needs to break the mid term resistance at 15100 else it could still be vulnerable to a decline towards 14000 in the coming weeks. The DAX (8195.92) bounced from 8100 yesterday but could dip to test strong long-term Support at 8000 next week.
Nikkei (14065.96, +0.09) is facing Resistance near 14140. If this holds, it can push the Nikkei back down towards 13600. Shanghai (2118.58, -0.42) has dipped slightly but remains in an overall uptrend. We still expect a rally towards 2150.
Nifty (5488.10) had risen sharply yesterday. It is trading in a range of 5300-5500 for now, but remains vulnerable to a fall below 5250. in the medium term
Commodities are down overall.
Gold (1392.10) is down but has Support at 1375.If the support holds the prices may bounce back to 1400-1425. Silver (23.4750) has come down from the resistance at 25 and may see a further drop to 22.
Copper (3.2405) has fallen sharply below 3.25. This is upsets our view as we were expecting it to rise further towards 3.40. It is consolidating for now between 3.30 or 3.20.
Brent (115.12) has come down. It is now trading just above the support at 115. It can still move up to 116-117 while above 115. Nymext WTI (107.45) is trading mixed above crucial Support at 106, in an overall uptrend.
The Euro (1.3190) has been trading in a narrow 1.3138-3218 range this week. Looks indecisive and ranged sideways overall. The Pound (1.5611) is doing much better, bouncing off the low of 1.5427 last week. It now shows potential to rise towards 1.58. That the EURGBP (0.8448) has broken below the 200-day MA (0.8483) a couple of days ago is significant. A test of 0.84 is likely on the downside now.
The BOE and ECB meetings are due today.
Dollar-Yen maintains its gains and is close to testing 100. With Support at 99 now, there are chances of further rise towards 102 as well. The Euro-Yen (131.55) has crucial Resistance at 131.99. Crossplay suggests that the Euro could be the weakest in the G3 currencies. Dollar-Swiss (0.9371) is stuck in an extended sideways range of 0.90-95 in the long term, unless there's a large selloff from 0.9400, which looks unlikely.
The Aussie (0.9157) has surprised by moving up sharply on short-covering. It seems to have built credible Support above 0.89, which is also the 100-mth MA. It may try to move higher towards 0.9270 if it manages to remain above 0.9100.
The Real (2.3605) and Rand (10.2363) are consolidating against the Dollar and have some chances of strengthening in the coming days. There's some chance that the weakening phase is over. Dollar-Rupee came off to 67.07 and can move down towards 66.25 today.
US 10-Yr (2.8967%) is up, trading below the long term crucial resistance at 2.90%. The Japan 10-Yr (0.7763%) is up there is support at 0.65%-0.67% which may help it to rise further. The India 10-Yr GOI (8.43%) is down and the Indo-US 10-Yr spread (5.56) is also down.
1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST Australia Trade Balance
...Expected 0.11 $Bln ... Previous 0.60 $Bln
5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Previous - <0.10 %
11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ... Previous 0.50 %
11:45 GMT or 17:15 IST ECB Meeting
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %
12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 181 K ...Previous 200 K
...Actual 0.59 % ...Previous 0.53 %
... Actual 0.30 % ...Previous -0.20 %
EU Retail Sales
...Actual 0.21 % ...Previous -0.72 %
US Trade Balance
...Actual -39.15 $ Bln ...Previous -34.54 $ Bln
...Actual 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %
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