Wednesday July 27, 2005 - 20:51:33 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: NZD regains 0.6800 ahead of OCR review
The NZD continued to trade with a heavy tone during the domestic session yesterday. From early intraday highs of 0.6830, the NZD drew little support from an improved NBNZ Business Confidence reading and weakened in line with broad based USD gains. The release of a larger than expected trade deficit, totalling NZ$522m, also pressured the currency causing the market to briefly dip to a local session low of 0.6797. USD strength initially persisted during the offshore session, with the NZD marked lower to 0.6775. However, with this morning's OCR review keenly anticipated, the NZD subsequently recovered from these overnight to lows, again establishing itself above 0.6800.
Australian Dollar: AUD remains under pressure after CPI data
With the USD continuing to strengthen on all fronts, the AUD remained pressured during the local session yesterday. The market failed to hold 0.7600 throughout the day, reacting negatively to the release of a 0.6% CPI reading for Q2, below market expectations of 0.8% and established an intraday low of 0.7548 locally. The market remained soft during the offshore session, deteriorating further into 0.7529 before recovering to 0.7560.
Major Currencies: USD falls despite strong data
The USD fell during Wednesday's offshore session against major currencies after it failed to break a key technical level against the euro. Despite strong US data, including a 1.4% increase in durable goods orders and a 4.0% increase in new home sales, the USD failed to break EUR
1.1950 sparking a euro rally. The euro dropped to a 1.1965 low against the USD following the US data but was then bought back as traders looked to pick up anything below 1.1980 taking the euro up to a 1.2085 high. The USD/JPY
eased off its overnight high of 112.65, trading a 50bps range and opens this morning around 112.35.
US new home sales jump 4.0% in June.
We yet again use the word "booming" to describe the US housing market! New home sales surged to a new record high, on top of upward revisions which lifted both March and May to sales levels higher than the previous record high in Oct last year. This report follows Monday's news that existing home sales hit a new record. With new home sales so strong, it follows that construction spending in June will recover after three monthly declines, underpinning our view that housing will make a solid contribution to Q2 GDP growth.
Non-alarming Beige Book.
The Fed's regional summary of activity indicates the economy continued to expand. Consumer spending remained solid despite higher oil prices, with car sales robust. The housing market was still strong, though with signs that some of spring's heat had dissipated. Wage pressures remained moderate despite a tighter labour market and some reported skill shortages, so as yet the Fed's greater focus on labour costs will not yield anything of great concern. Inflation pressures were also mild despite the increases in energy prices. All up, signs of continued economic expansion yet contained inflation mean the Fed can continue with its measured increases, with no need for a faster pace.
Mortgage lending data from the British banks
was stronger again in June, pointing to a further increase in the official mortgage data from the Bank of England, to be published late this week.Australian Dolla
US durable goods orders rise 1.4% in June.
The durable goods orders headline posted a solid further gain on top of May's 6.4% surge. The detail in the report was mostly encouraging. Whereas civilian aircraft orders accounted for almost all of the May rise, in June they fell back 24% (still very strong following their 167% surge in May, and broadly consistent with publicly available Boeing orders figures). The overall durables rise reflected healthy gains for computers, machinery, fabricated metals and defence; core capital goods orders in June posted their strongest gain since Jan, and were revised up from -2.3% to -0.6% in May. That bodes well for Q3 business investment, although the lacklustre shipments in June could be a bit of a drag on Q2 GDP.
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ RBNZ OCR Review 6.75% 6.75%
Jun Dwelling Consents 11.4% 10.0%
US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 23/7 303k 310k
Jun Help Wanted Index 37 39
Jpn Jun Retail Trade %yr 2.7% 3.0%
Eur Jun Money Supply M3 %yr 7.3% n/f
Ger Jul Unemployment ch '000 -23 n/f
Latest Research papers/Publication
• A question of capacity (25 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 July)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (25 July)
• RBNZ July OCR Preview (22 July)
• Migration and the RBNZ (21 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 July)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (18 July)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
(Previous day’s closing rates)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may
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