Friday September 6, 2013 - 03:35:21 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 06-Sep-2013 -0333 GMT
Equities are up overall. The Dow (14937.48, +0.04%) has risen marginally but has been unable to break important Resistance at 15000-15100. It needs to rise past 15100 to avoid the danger of a fall towards 14000. A 181K increase in US NFP is expected today. A larger number may be needed to actually take the Dow higher.
Nikkei (13898.39, -0.94%) has fallen as the Resistance near 14140 holds well for now. It may fall a little more towards 13600 before rising again. Shanghai (2125.22, +0.13) has risen a bit and remains in an overall uptrend. We can expect a move towards near term resistance at 2150 which if holds may push it back down to 2100.
Nifty (5592.95) had risen sharply yesterday on Rupee strength. It is trading high for now but needs to rise past 5750 to avoid further fall towards 5250.
Gold (1371) has fallen below the support at 1375. We now see an immediate support at 1350. This needs to hold if Gold wants to move back up again. With the Dollar looking stronger, Gold may need to do hard work in order to move higher
Silver (23.30) is down a little more and looks vulnerable to a further drop to 22 if it does not bounce back.
Copper (3.2495) is consolidating now in between 3.30-3.20. A support at 3.18-3.20 can be seen which may push the prices back up towards 3.30-3.35.
Brent (115.25) is up and may rise up to 118-120 if the U.S. and allies begin military action against Syria.
Nymex WTI (108.36) is up. It can move up to 110 while above 106.
The Euro (1.3128) fell sharply overnight breaking below the 200-day MA 1.3150. The Euro is tracking the 2-Yr German-US Yield Spread (-0.23%) which is headed towards Support at -0.3%. The Euro is likely to move down towards 1.3000. The Pound (1.5615) found Resistance at 1.5667 yesterday but has Support at 1.5570 today. It is finding it easier to gain against the Euro (EURGBP 0.8414) than against the Dollar.
Dollar-Yen (99.82) has corrected a bit from the high near 100.22 yesterday. We see good chances of further rise towards 102 in the coming weeks. The Dollar Index (82.50) looks bullish, with chances of 84 in the coming months. The Aussie (0.9139) is likely to dip towards 0.9085 today within a long sideways range of 0.89-92. A high near 0.9188 was seen yesterday.
The Ringgitt (3.3125) has weakened again over the last 2-3 days and could weaken some more. The Rand (10.2124) has strengthened but the USDZAR has Support at the 21-day MA at 10.18 for today. The Real (2.3235) saw significant gains yesterday and could strengthen further towards 2.28 next week.
Dollar-Rupee dipped to 66.01 at the closed yesterday after ranging between 65.53-66.49 yesterday. Crucial Support seen at 65.50 today. The Dollar is Oversold on the near-term charts and could move higher during the day.
BOJ, BOE and ECB kept rates unchanged. The German yields have been rising with the German 10-Yr (2.04%) above 2.0% now. The trend points to higher rates ahead. The UK 10-Yr (2.83%) has broken above earlier resistance near 2.75% and could see higher levels ahead.
The US 10-Yr (2.99%) has moved up to almost 3.0%. Strong, long-term Resistance seen at 3.10%. Test thereof will fully price in the QE Taper slated for 18th Sept. Expect yields to come off from there. The US-Japan 10-Yr Spread (2.20%) continues to rise sharply.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -8.20 £ (Bln)...Previous -8.08 £ (Bln)
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Previous - 16.90 Mln
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US NFP
...Expected 181 % ...Previous 162 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.40 % ...Previous 7.40 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Labour Force
...Expected 30.20 K ... Previous -39.40 K
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST CA PMI
...Expected 55.10 ...Previous 48.40
Australia Trade Balance
...Actual -0.77 $Bln ... Previous 0.24 $Bln
...Actual <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %
...Actual 0.50 % ... Previous 0.50 %
...Actual 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %
US ADP Emp
...Actual 176 K ...Previous 198 K
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