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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Global bond yields consolidate from overnight highs ahead of US jobs data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Global bond yields consolidate from overnight highs ahead of US jobs data
Fri, 06 Sep 2013 5:42 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Bond yields rising and starting to show the limits of what forward guidance can achieve
- Moody's raises outlook on German banks to stable from negative
- Iran said to have made plans to attack US interests in Iraq in the event of military action against Syria
- Greece Q2 Final GDP revised better to -3.8% from -4.6% prelim (in line with recent Periphery trend)
- UK Trade deficit widen more than expected as exports to non-EU countries slump almost 16%

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Sept 2nd: (RUB) 7.80T v 7.91T prior
- (MY) Malaysia July Trade Balance (MYR): 2.9B v 3.9Be; Exports Y/Y: +4.5% v +0.3%e; Imports Y/Y: +6.2% v -0.2%e
- (JP) Japan July Preliminary Leading Index CI: 107.9e v 107.2 prior; Coincident Index: 106.9e v 105.5 prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Aug 30th (y/y): +3.3% v +6.6% prior
- (DE) Germany Q2 Labor Costs Q/Q: 0.0% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 3.7% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Gross Reserves: $48.0B v $47.7Be; Net Reserves: $45.6B v $45.6Be
- (DE) Germany July Current Account Balance: 14.3B v 14.0Be; Trade Balance: 16.1B v 16.5Be ; Exports M/M: -1.1% v +0.7%e; Imports M/M: 0.5% v +0.7%e
- (AU) Australia Aug Foreign Reserves: A$55.7B v A$55.5B prior
- (FR) France July Trade Balance: -5.1B v -4.8Be
- (FR) France July YTD Budget Balance: -80.8B v -59.3B prior
- (FR) France Aug Consumer Confidence: 84 v 83e
- (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: v 455.0Me
- (UK) Aug Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.8%e; 3M/Y: 2.5% v 5.6%e
- (CH) Swiss Aug Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 434.2B v B v 433.2Be
- (ES) Spain July Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.3%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: +0.4% v -4.6% prior

- (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2%e
- (CZ) Czech July Industrial Output Y/Y: 2.1% v +2.0-%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 0.2% v -11.6% prior
- (CZ) Czech Q2 Average Real Monthly Wage Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.5%e
- (DK) Denmark July Industrial Production M/M: 2.9% v +0.6%e
- (EU) ECB 1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 57M prior; 78.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 86.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Aug CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Q2 Industrial Output Y/Y: -1.1% v +1.5%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Budget Balance (SEK): -0.6B v -8.9B prior
- (AT) Austria Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.1 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.6% v -0.6% prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 151.7K v 156.6K tons prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug International Reserves: No est v $44.5B prior
- (NO) Norway July Industrial Production M/M: 3.0% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: +2.8% v -5.5% prior
- (NO) Norway July Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.1% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 6.1% prior
- (IT) Italy July Non-EU Trade Balance: +1.9B v +2.5B prior
- (UK) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.7%e
- (UK) July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.7%e
- (UK) July Visible Trade Balance: -9.9B v -8.2Be; Total Trade Balance: -3.1B v -1.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: 4.5B-3.0Be

- (UK) AUG BOE/Gfk Inflation expectations next 12-months: 3.2% v 3.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Q2 Final GDP Y/Y: -3.8-4.6%e
- (IS) Iceland Q2 GDP Q/Q: -6.5% v +4.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 0.3% prior
- (CY) Cyprus Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: -1.8% v -1.4% prelim; Y/Y: -5.9% v -5.4% prelim
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Aug Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to Italian banks at 241.5B v 247.7B prior

Fixed income:
- (IN) India sold an undisclosed amount vs. INR100B indicated in 2020 and 2027 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,529,
DAX -0.20% at 8,220, CAC-40 flat at 4,005, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,571, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,830, SMI -0.10% at 7,923, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,653]

- Market Focal Points: Trading cautious and tight ranges seen ahead of US monthly payrolls data, Utilities outperform, Greek banks outperform as Q2 GDP revised higher

By Sector
- Utilities
[Utilities are sharply higher following reports that Russia is seeking to freeze utility tariffs in 2014 (RWE RWE.DE +6.5%, E.ON EOAN.DE +4%)]
- Technology [Gemalto GTO.FR -1% (issued strategy update)]
- Telecom [Ziggo ZIGGO.NL +1.5% (added to AEX-index)]
- Industrials [Peugeot UG.FR +2% (mulling additional cuts in salary costs); Deutz DEZ.DE -9% (share placement), Michelin -2% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air France AF.FR +1% (Aug passenger traffic +4.9%); Sthree STHR.UK -2% (Q3 gross profit declined y/y), ProsiebenSat PSM.DE -1% (share placement), Kingfisher KGF.UK -0.70% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE -1% (Belarus removed export duties on potash)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +3.5%, Industrial +0.20%; Energy -0.70%, Technology -0.50%, Telecom -0.20%, Consumer Cyclical -0.10%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.40%, Financials -0.30%, Basic Materials -0.10%]

Speakers:
- Russia Fin Ministry: G20 communique to reflect the improvements in the global economy,
but too early to give the 'all clear' signal on the crisis. The communiquwill refer to slowing growth in emerging markets
- Moody's raises outlook on Germany's banking sector to stable from negative
- BoJ's Kuroda: Reiterates view that room for both govt and central bank to act if tax rate increase impacts the domestic recovery
- Goldman Sachs sees ECB issuing a new LTRO with a fixed interest-rate duration to support Eonia before year-end

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX market awaited the Sept US payroll data which could confirm that the Fed would begin to taper its QE program. Market participants pondered the impact potential tightening of financial conditions on the fragile global growth outlook. There had been a broad based rise in government bond yields ahead of the US jobs report and the US 10-year Treasury yield did breach the 3% threshold overnight, Draghi's comments on Thursday starting to show the limits of what forward guidance can achieve
- The GBP softened after its industrial production and Trade data came in below expectations. The GBP/USD fell below 1.5600 as UK July exports to non-EU countries -15.8% m/m, biggest drop since Jan 2009.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Will be necessary to change relatively loose monetary policy slowly without disrupting the economy - comment from G-20; Global tightening of monetary policy is needed
- (GR) Greece coalition remains on rocky ground after some members of New Democracy took exception to criticism of former Premier Karamanlis from the PASOK - Greek press
- (CY) Cyprus lawmakers said to have approved legislation needed for bailout loan - financial press
- (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Sees 10B precautionary credit line for Ireland from Troika
- (PT) Portugal and the Troika already have a working agreement for a precautionary program post-bailout exit - Economico
Spain
- (ES) Catalonia Pres Artur Mas may call for a regional vote on Catalan independence in 2016 if the Spanish govt blocks plans for a referendum on the issue in 2014 - financial press
- (US) As many as 6 of the 12 voting members of the Fed's FOMC committee could leave in 2014 - Washington Post
- (US) At least three Senate Banking Panel Democrats are expected to oppose to Larry Summers ' nomination as next Fed Chairman - financial press
- (SY) Syria resolution will most likely fail in the US House of Representatives - press
- (SY) President Obama said to have requested that the Pentagon expand list of potential targets in Syria - NYT
- (SY) Iran said to have made plans to attack US interests in Iraq in the event of military action against Syria - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) G20 Leaders' Summit in St. Petersburg, Russia
- (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold Meeting in Lithuania
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck at campaign event
- (CO) Colombia Aug CPI Core M/M: No est v % prior
- 06:00 (DE) German July Industrial Production M/M: -0.5%e v +2.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 2.0% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal July Trade Balance: No est v -655M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -2.0% prelim
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Industrial Production M/M: No est v 8.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to Sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 30th: No est v $277.7B prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Evans in SC
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Official Reserves: no est v $110.1B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.2% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 6.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +180Ke v +162K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +180Ke v +161K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +5Ke v +6K prior; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision: Aug
- 08:30 (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.4%e v 7.4% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 14.0% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +227K prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Average Hourly Earnings M/M: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.9% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4prior

- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Aug Net Change in Employment: +20.0Ke v -39.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -18.3K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -21.2K prior; Participation Rate: 66.5%e v 66.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q2 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 0.3%e v % prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Gross Fixed Investment: -4.0%e v -0.7% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banamex) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.00%
- 10:00 (UK) Aug NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (CA) Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 53.0e v 48.4 prior; PMI unadj: No est v 45.7 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 13:30 (US) Fed's George
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Exports FOB: $5.1Be v $4.8B prior

Weekend:
- (AU) Australian Federal Election

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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