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Friday September 6, 2013 - 14:24:52 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - WILL SYRIA WEIGH ON RATE MARKET SENTIMENT

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 6 September 2013

 

 

WILL SYRIA WEIGH ON RATE MARKET SENTIMENT?

 

• Developments in Syrian crisis have potential to dent markets’ growing optimism

• UK labour market to fuel expectations of policy tightening before 2016

• Chinese economic releases point to modest improvement, but understate domestic stabilization

 

Interest rate markets price ‘normalisation’ ... Financial markets continue to react to improving economic activity indicators in advanced economies. While equity markets remain off recent highs, interest rate markets suggest signs of recovery in advanced economies justify beginning to price for monetary policy ‘normalisation’. Over the coming week, concerns over Syria may check some of this move as a Congressional vote on US military action looms. However, other releases, including UK labour market statistics and Chinese updates, look set to continue to add to febrile rate sentiment.

 

Syrian crisis to unsettle optimism? ... The unfolding crisis in Syria has the potential to curtail some growth optimism in the short term. Nothing from the G20 leaders’ summit suggests that a more co-ordinated international approach is likely. Indeed, concerns expressed by China and the EU indicate the contrary. Nevertheless, Congress will vote on military action, perhaps as soon as the coming week, with Republicans suggesting support. Financial markets are already wary - equities have retraced over the past few weeksand oil prices risen. Admittedly, significant market reaction is only likely to follow should the crisis spill beyond Syrian borders. However, a US military  strike may be seen as increasing that possibility and could dampen sentiment further.

 

UK jobs to boost early rate hike outlook ... Domestically higher medium-term rates have been accompanied by a shortening in the expected time until policy tightening. This is despite the Bank of England’s forward guidance, committing not to tighten policy before the unemployment rate drops below 7%. This largely reflects signs of a more robust recovery suggesting this could happen more quickly than the BoE projects. The coming week’s releases are likely to add to this sentiment. Claimant count unemployment looks likely to fall sharply again in August and we forecast the ILO unemployment rate slipping to 7.7%. Less high profile, the RICS housing survey and official construction output look likely to point to further housing market revival - also bolstering tightening expectations.

 

Staging post for Fed announcement ... After today’s payrolls release, the countdown continues to the following week’s Fed announcement when we expect it to begin to taper QE. The coming week sees relatively little to add to that broader debate. However, we will watch August retail sales,  where we think evidence of firmer auto sales could result in an above consensus pick up. We will also watch the NFIB small business survey. Weaker small businesses in 2011 held back a revival in broader GDP despite a rebound in large business activity. Constraints on small businesses appear to have eased and we will look for a rise in the NFIB survey to herald the 3% growth rate we expect for 2014.

 

China to add to growth optimism? ... Our globalteam looks for modest acceleration in the coming week’s industrial output and retail sales releases for August. The trade balance should be broadly unchanged, but this looks likely to mask a rise inboth exports and imports. The latter was suggested in the latest official PMI and points to improvement in the domestic economy. Our global team forecasts growth of 7.5% for 2013 as a whole and considers the recent slowdown has passed.

 

Euro area concerns are for the future ... There are few economic releases across the euro area. Interest will surround the Finance Ministers meeting on Friday, particularly for discussions over Ireland ’s prospective exit from the bailout programme. Risks remain for the euro area, but these are more likely to emerge in Q4 and should not concern markets in the near term.

 

 

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This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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