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Monday September 9, 2013 - 10:19:02 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro zone sentiment turns positive for first time in over two years

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro zone sentiment turns positive for first time in over two years
Mon, 09 Sep 2013 5:54 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia elects Coalition leader Tony Abbott as its new PM
- Tokyo secures the 2020 Olympics; Nikkei ends session +2.5% to 1-month high

- Japan Q2 Final GDP vastly improved from the preliminary levels but still shy of estimates (Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 3.8% v 2.6% prelim
- Plethora of Chinese data aids risk appetite; Shanghai Composite +3%
- China Aug Trade Balance hits 7-month high as Exports post second consecutive increase
(Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.0%e); Imports miss estimates and below month-ago levelsShanghai ends session +3.4% at 2,212 (3-month high)
- China Aug CPI in line with forecasts at 2.6% and hits 3-month lows
- Italy PM Letta warns of fresh turmoil ahead of Berlusconi expulsion decision. New elections are possible. (**Note: Senate committee hearings on Berlusconi start today)
- Euro zone sentiment turns positive for first time in over two years
- German borrowing costs rise at 6-month Bubill auction (Yield: 0.461% v 0.218% prior
- President Obama to give taped interviews with 6 TV news anchors as he begins full court press on Syria issue
- Sec of State: End of Syrian conflict needs a political solution, there is no military solution; US is not going to war
- US Congress returns from recess

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Aug Bankruptcies Y/Y: -15.3% v -0.1% prior
- (JP) Japan Aug Consumer Confidence: 43.0 v 44.0e
- (CH) Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland July Preliminary Trade Balance: -280M v +177M prior
- (JP) Japan Aug Eco Watchers Current Survey: 51.2 v 53.5e; Outlook Survey: 51.2 v 53.6 prior
- (FR) Bank of France Aug Business Sentiment: 97 v 97e
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Sept 6th (CHF): 318.1B v 320.9B prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (DK) Denmark July Current Account (DKK): 13.0BB v 12.5Be; Trade Balance (Ex-Shipping) 6.9BB v 8.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e
- (TR) Turkey July Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (EU) ECB 2.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.5B prior; 79.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 78.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss July Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.8% v 2.3% prior
- (NL) Netherlands July Industrial Production M/M: +0.7 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -1.0% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: +2.6% v -0.6% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Aug Trade Balance: $4.6B v $3.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.0%e; Imports Y/Y: -1.2% v +2.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Sentix Investor Confidence: +6.5 v v -3.5e ; first positive reading since July 2011
- (GR) Greece July Industrial Production Y/Y: -8.1% v +0.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Aug CPI Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.7% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.5% prior
- (SG) Singapore Aug Foreign Reserves: $261.9B v $261.1B prior

Fixed Income:
- Russia opened books for benchmark 5-year, 10-year and 30-year USD denominated and 7-year and 12-year euro-denominated bonds
- (DE) Germany sold 2.685B in 6-month BuBills; Avg Yield: 0.0461% v 0.218% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 1.2x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,524, DAX -0.1% at 8,270, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,032, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 8,602, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 17,102, SMI -0.5% at 7,909, S&P 500 Futures +3.4 point at 1,657]

- Market Focal Points: Gains in Asia lead by positive export data and rumors of China preferred share sales, Insurers lead gainers on increased demand, Gold miners up on possible South Africa strike solution, Energy companies down after BG guides output lower

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Informa INF.UK -0.2% (broker downgrade), Vivendi VIV.FR +2.1% (looking for new CEO)]
- Consumer Staples [Associated British Foods ABF.UK -2.0% (trading update)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Anglo American AAL.UK +1.2% (South African strikers settling)]
- Industrials [Vallourec VK.FR +2.0% (broker upgrade)]
- Telecom [Kabel Deutschland KD8.DE -0.9% (no amended terms on Vodafone)]
- Insurers [Munich Re MUV2.DE +2.1% (broker upgrade), Swiss Re RUKN.CH +1.5% (increased demand for catastrophic reinsurance)]
- Financials [Banca Monte Paschi BMPS.IT -2.9% (capital raise]
- Energy [BG Group BG.UK -4.8% (delays in Egypt and Norway to reduce output)]
- Healthcare [Evolva EVE.CH +5.3% (JV ahead of schedule), Cytos CYTN.CH +6.2% (positive study results), Bayer BAYN.DE +0.6% (side-effects to Xarelto), Glaxo GSK.UK -0.5% (to sell Lucozade, Ribena to Suntory)]

Speakers:
- US Sec of State Kerry: End of Syrian conflict needs a political solution, there is no military solution

- UK Foreign Sec Hague: UK and US efforts on Syria are still closely aligned. The international community must deter further attacks
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov stated that Syria was committed to Geneva 1 and 2 and the regime was still ready for peace talks. He reiterated warning that strikes on Syria would cause outbursts of terrorism
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras stated that he expected difficult talks with troika in the future
- Japan Tax panel chief Noda of LDP party: There were no cautious voices on the sales tax increase. Reconstruction would become impossible if interest rates keep rising Weak JPY currency (yen) under Abenomics runs the risk of causing bad inflation
- Japan Ruling Party Tax Panel member: Miyazawa: Corporate tax not discussion topic this autumn. No one on panel urged a rethink on planned sales tax increase
- India Oil Minister: Will not reduce oil imports as INR currency (rupee) declines and will not ask oil refineries to slow down. Looking to increase domestic exploration for oil and gas
- South Korea Fin Min Hyun: US was moving towards unwinding stimulus. G20 impression was that the Fed tapering was very close
- Canadian Rating Agency DBRS chief McCormick: Spain sovereign rating under pressure amid doubts

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Potential US military action in Syria is likely to remain in focus this week as US Congress reconvenes
- Rising risk appetite weighed upon the USD in the session. The EUR/USD probed the 1.32 level aided that Euro zone sentiment turned positive for first time in over two years. Bank of France raised its Q3 growth forecast slightly to +0.2%
- The GBP was firmer and again benefiting from M&A flows after Glaxo confirmed it had reached agreement to sell Lucozade, Ribena to Suntory for $1.35B
- The JPY was off its worst levels after USD/JPY tested above parity during Asia after Tokyo was awarded the 2929 Olympic games. The pair was at 99.50 just ahead of the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Greek economy will contract less than previously expected. He now sees 2013 GDP at -3.8% vs. -4.2% official view. 'Grexit' to be replaced by 'Grecovery', Greece to return to growth in 2014
- (GR) Greece govt is increase efforts to attract foreign investment including making it easier to do business and bring funds into the country
- Italy PM Letta warned political crisis in Italy could have severe costs (**Note: Senate committee hearings on Berlusconi start today)
- (IT) Italy Econ Min Saccomanni: Confident a political crisis can be avoided despite tensions ahead of the vote to expel Berlusconi from Parliament; Confident economy will stabilize in Q3
- (IT) Italy govt to present asset plan sales in Sept
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Recent GDP data confirms policies are taking effect. PM Abe will decide on sales-tax increase on Oct 1st. If tax is increased, more stimuli would be expected (at least 2T)
- (SY) Spain is prohibited under a 2005 law in joining any unilateral effort against Syria that is not backed by either the UN Security Council, the EU, or NATO

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Congress returns from Summer Recess
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Berlin
- (CH) Swiss parliament lower house discusses US tax row, data swap
- 06:00 (EU) OECD July Leading Indicators: No est v 100.6 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2018 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON1.0B in Bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Building Permits M/M: +3.5%e v -10.3% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Aug Trade Balance: -$612.5Me v -$254.00 prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.7B prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.5B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.4B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.4B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (IT) Italy Senate begins meetings considering the fate of Berlusconi
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug CPI M/M: +0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Aug YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -851.2B prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil July CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.2% prior
- 11:00 German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Wrzburg
- 11:00 (US) Fed's Williams to speak at NABE in San Francisco
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta speaks at Bruegel in Brussels
- 14:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel answers Voter Questions at Town Hall Event on ARD TV
- 15:00 (US) July Consumer Credit: $12.7Be v $13.8B prior
- 19:50 J(JP) Bank of Japan August 7-8 meeting minutes

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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