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Tuesday September 10, 2013 - 09:58:25 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite continues to find traction aided by more Chinese data and easing of any imminent attack on Syria

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite continues to find traction aided by more Chinese data and easing of any imminent attack on Syria
Tue, 10 Sep 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Syria strike risks ease after Russia proposed Syria put its chemical weapons under international control or destroy them in order to avert western military action; Proposal welcomed by Iran, Chinabut Syrian rebel opposition dissents and all it a political maneuver
- (CH) China Aug Industrial Production beats expectations and hits 16-month hish (Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.9%e) (16-month high); Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.5% v 9.4%e
- (CH) China Aug Retail Sales beats expectations and hits 7-month high (Y/Y: 13.4% v 13.3%e)
- Tokyo hosting of 2020 Olympics labeled the 4th arrow for Abe govt
- The 10-year Italy/Spanish Gov't bond spread narrowed to zero basis points for the first time since March 2012

***Economic Data***
- (CH) China Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.9%e (16-month high); Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 9.5% v 9.4%e
- (CH) China Aug Urban Fixed Assets Y/Y: 20.3% v 20.2%e
- (CH) China Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.4% v 13.3%e (7-month high); Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.8% v 12.9%e

- (FI) Finland July Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -5.4%e
- (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -1.8% v -12.2% prior
- (FR) France July Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.5%e
- (FR) France July Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.7% v +0.7%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -0.5%e

- (AT) Austria Q2 Final WIFO GDP Q/Q: +0.1% v +0.2% prelim
- (DK) Denmark Aug CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (DK) Denmark Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (TR) Turkey Q2 GDP WDA Q/Q: 2.1% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.6% prior; GDP Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.5%e
- (EU) ECB 1.7B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 2.2B prior; 71.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 79.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden July Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -5.2% v -3.6%e
- (SE) Sweden July Industrial Orders M/M: 0.3% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v -5.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.0%e (confirms eighth straight quarterly contraction)
- (ZA) South Africa Q2 Current Account Balance (ZAR): -216.2BB v -195.5B; Current Account to GDP Ratio: -6.5% v -6.2%e
- (NO) Norway Aug CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e
- (NO) Norway Aug CPI Underlying M/M: -0.1% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.9%e
- (NO) Norway PPI (including oil) M/M: 1.0% v 2.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 3.0% prior
- (CN) China Aug New Yuan Loans (CNY) M/M: 711.3B v 730.0Be
- (CN) China M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 14.7% v 14.6%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.9% v 9.6%e v 9.7% prior; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.4%e

- (CY) Cyprus Aug CPI Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.7% prior
- (IN) India Aug Trade Balance: -$10.9B v -$12.3B prior; Imports Y/Y: -0.7% v -6.2% prior; Exports Y/Y: 13.0% v 11.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency
to sell Jun 2045 OLO bond in benchmark size via syndicate; guidance seen +115bps over mid-swaps
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.0B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 1.75% 2023 DSL Bond ; Avg Yield: 2.412% v 2.061% prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF622.1M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.075% v -0.059% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 97.2B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 95Be
- (EU) ECB allotted 3.4B in 1-month Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 4.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF65B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.71% v 3.75% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.25x v 1.55x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 910M 0.1% I/L Apr 2023 Bunds; Real Yield: +0.36% v +0.06% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.6x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 2.75B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.743% v 3.553% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.46x v 1.65x prior; Tails: 0.4bps v 0.4bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.2%
, FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,582, DAX +1.5% at 8,400, CAC-40 +1.1% at 4,085, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 8,741, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 17,341, SMI +1.1% at 8,023, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,677]

- Market Focal Points: Equity markets gain on strength in auto sector, China industrial production and Russia's proposal for Syria; Corporates continue to tap bond market ahead of next week's Fed meeting, Spanish equities outperform Italian stocks amid concerns related to growth and Berlusconi, SocGen and RBS lead gains in the banking sector as Tobin tax may violate EU Treaties

By Sector
- Financials
[Ashmore ASHM.UK +6% (sharp rise in FY inflows), Sabadell SAB.ES +0.25% (launched capital raise); Partners Group PGHN.CH -5.5% (H1 results below ests)]
- Energy [Neste Oil NES1V.FI +13.5% (raised FY outlook), Repsol REP.ES +1% (mull options related to Gas Natural stake)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Glencore Xstrata GLEN.UK +3.5% (raised synergy est for Xstrata merger)]
- Industrials [Peugeot UG.FR +7% (upbeat commentary at Frankfurt auto show) Volkswagen VOW3.DE +2% (FY sales guidance); Eiffage FGR.FR -3.5% (share placement), Fiat Industrial FI.IT -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Abcam ABC.UK +4% (FY profits rose y/y)]
- Consumer Discretionary [TF1 TFI.FR +8% (broker commentary), SABMiller SAB.UK +1.5% (broker commentary); Whitbread WTB.UK -2.5% (profit taking following quarterly statement)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +1.9%, Utilities +1.2%, Basic Materials +1.2%, Industrials +0.9%, Consumer Non Cyclical +0.6%Telecom +0.4%, Technology +0.3%, Energy +0.2%]

Speakers:
- France Fin Min Moscovici:
2013 public deficit will be slightly above 3.7%
- IMF Chief Lagarde: European banking union still has a far way to go; needs to be completed, speed is of the essence
- EU Commission Draft Doc: The planned financial transaction (Tobin) tax in 11 EU states is not compatible with EU Treaty
- Ireland Deputy PM Gilmore: Budget adjustments won't be more than are needed and could be less than 3.1B
- Japan Econ Min Amari: PM Abe ordered formulation of an economic package by the end of Sept; need sufficient measures to counter sales tax increase
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Says PM Abe stated that an economic package would be necessary if govt goes ahead with planned sales-tax increase
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Syria weapons plan not really a Russian proposal; nurtured out of discussion with US
- France Foreign Ministry: Proposes Chapter 7 resolution regarding Syria to the UN Security Council with those responsible for the Aug 21st chemical attacks be tried. It welcomed the proposal of dismantling of Syria's chemical weapon stockpile and would set consequences if UN inspection were not respected
- German Foreign Min Westerwelle: Chance for a political solution on Syria is rising
- Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson: Supports Russian offer to work with Syria to put chemical weapons under international control
- IEA Head Van Der Hoeven: Reiterates oil market is sufficiently supplied

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite continued to build some momentum as the Chinese data continued to point towards stabilization and any imminent military strike against Syria seemed less likely. The USD maintained a soft tone against the major European and commodity-related pairs. The greenback woes stemming from last week's disappointing Non-farm payroll data with uncertainty about when the Fed might begin to taper its stimulus
- The AUD currency gained as a result of the Chinese data with AUD/USD at 0.9270 ahead of the NY morning.
- The JPY also maintained a soft tone as numerous Japanese officials noted that PM Abe ordered the formulation of an economic package by the end of Sept to counter the planned sales tax hike. Tokyo's hosting of the 2020 Olympics seen as the 4th arrow for Japan. The USD/JPY pair was back at parity just ahead of the NY morning.
- The 10-year Italy/Spanish Gov't bond spread narrowed to zero basis points for the first time since March 2012

Political/In the Papers:
- (SY) Syria Foreign Min Muallem: Syria welcomes Russia's proposal to transfer chemical weapons to international control
- (SY) US State Dept Spokesperson: US is very skeptical of Russia proposals for Syria chemical weapons, will closely examine Russia's proposals
- (SY) US Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): backs off plans to schedule a Senate vote on Wed regarding military action against Syria; vote still likely later this week; To await the national address by Pres Obama.
-(EU) European Parliament vote on banking union scheduled for today delayed until Thu Sep 12th - German press
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Going into next week's meeting with an open mind regarding QE3; agree with Bernanke's timeline on bond buying schedule; Scaling of purchases may last 9-10 months and depend what is needed in the US e

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PE) Peru July Trade Balance: -$400Me v -$78M prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (EU) EFSF to sell 1.0B in 1.625% 2020 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 OPEC Monthly Report
- 07:00 (SE) Sweden Central bank Gov Ingves speaks on financial stability
- 07:00 (PL) Poland Fin Min Rostowski speaks at Bruegel in Brussels
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior
- 07:30 (US) Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.0e v 94.1 prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Aug Housing Starts: 190.0Ke v 192.8K prior (revised from 192.9K)
- 08:30 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) speaks at Bruegel in Brussels
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 211.8B v 211.5B prior
- 10::00 (US) Defense Sec Hagel testifies on Syria
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) July JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 3.936M prior
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Rust
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announces size of 1.25% 2018 Gilt for its Sept 19th auction
- 11:00 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Ulm
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $50B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Villingen
- 13:00 (US) Apple iPhone announcement
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Saarbrcken
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $31B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Rottweil
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 21:00 (US) President Obama speaks

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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