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Tuesday September 10, 2013 - 15:16:28 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: China Data Help Drown Out the Drums of War US Market Update: China Data Help Drown Out the Drums of War
Tue, 10 Sep 2013 11:00 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Sept Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 1.0% v 0.7%e
- (US) Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism: 94.0 v 95.0e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Sept 6th: w/w +1.5%; Y/Y: +2.3% - 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- (CA) Canada Aug Housing Starts: 180.3K v 190.0Ke
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Sept 6th: +4.6% y/y, Sept MTD: +0.3% m/m
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 212.1B v 211.8B prior
- (US) July JOLTs Job Openings: 3.69 v 3.90Me

- European and US markets are at their highs this morning following another round of strong Chinese economic data. Meanwhile, the drums of war are getting quieter as the western powers debate Russia President Putin's Syria proposals. As of writing, DJIA is +0.76%, the S&P500 is up 0.69% and the Nasdaq is up 0.56%.

- The Obama Administration appears to have embraced Vladimir Putin's offer to broker a solution to the Syrian chemical weapons issue, with some hesitation. A Congressional aide reportedly said that the Senate may not vote on authorizing a Syria attack at all this week, while the White House has reportedly told House Democrats that diplomacy rather than military action is the priority at the moment regarding Syria. WTI crude is at its lowest level in five sessions, trading around $107.

- Dow Jones is making its first change to the DJIA in a year and some long-standing members are getting dropped. Alcoa is leaving the index after 54 years, in addition Bank of America and Hewlett-Packard. In their place, Goldman Sachs, Nike and Visa are being added to the DJIA. Analysts point out that the swap of Goldman for BoA will have an outsized impact on the index: at $169 a share, a 1% move in GS would add approx 12 points to the DJIA, whereas a 1% move in BAC, priced at $14.50, only adds 1 point to the index. The changes are effective Sept 23rd.

- Shares of Apple are down slightly this morning ahead of the iPhone 5S/5C launch event. The Apple store on the company's website is currently down ahead of the launch. Traders will be eagerly waiting for any color on China Mobile and its 700M. Note that recent press speculation suggests there will not be another Apple TV device launched today. Also, watch for the rollout of iOS 7 with the new devices. Apple's event is scheduled to begin after 13:00ET.

- Christopher & Banks is up more than 7% after modestly topping expectations and delivering a solid 7.7% comp sales gain in its Q2. Crocs lost more than 6% in the premarket on weak Q3 guidance and very cautious comments on the retail situation. Apparel giant PVH is at its lows, down 5%, after the firm's Q3 guidance disappointment overshadowed decent Q2 results.

- Shares of McDonalds are back to unchanged after a brief 1% pop on better-than-expected August comps. Comps in Europe were very good, up 3.3% versus expectations of a +0.1% gain.

- Shares and ADRs of global automakers are up 2% or more this morning as the Frankfurt Auto Show gets under way. The only good news out of Europe is that sales have found a floor, while the outlook for the US and China is universally positive from major players. A Renault executive even forecasted that the Europe market could return to growth in 2014.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Apple iPhone announcement
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Saarbrcken
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $31B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Rottweil
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 21:00 (US) President Obama speaks




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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release

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