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Wednesday September 11, 2013 - 10:25:53 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK jobless claims decline for the 10th straight month

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK jobless claims decline for the 10th straight month
Wed, 11 Sep 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- President Obama skeptical on Syria but moves away from military action. orders delay to Congressional vote, allowing US to work with Russia on its proposal for a diplomatic solution through surrender of chemical weapon stockpiles by Assad
- France follows Obama address with a draft to the UN Security Council, giving Syria 15 days to declare its chemical arms program and allow UN inspectors into disclosed sites
- Australia's August consumer confidence showed its highest reading since 2010
- Japan's 3Q business confidence increased to a four-year high
- Italy Senate committee again adjourns debate on former PM Berlusconi until Thursday Sept 12th
- UK Aug Jobless Claims Change continues string of good economic data; falls for the 10th straight month (-32.6K v -21.0Ke)
- German 10-year Bund Yield hit highest level in almost two years at auction


***Economic Data***
- (MY) Malaysia July Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.6% v 4.9%e; Manufacturing Sales Value Y/Y: 3.8% v -2.2% prior
- (FR) France Q2 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e
- (DE) Germany Aug Final CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (DE) Germany Aug Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug PES Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.8%e
- (FR) France Current Account Balance: -3.2B v -1.4B prior
- (ES) Spain July House transactions Y/Y: -5.0% v -5.5% prior
- (HU) Hungary Aug CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (EU) ECB 1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.7B prior; 86.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 71.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands July Trade Balance: 3.4B v 3.5B prior
- (CZ) Czech July Current Account (CZK): +4.1B v -7.0Be
- (UK) Aug Jobless Claims Change: -32.6K v -21.0Ke (10th straight decline); Claimant Count Rate: 4.2% v 4.3%e
- (UK) July Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e; Weekly Earnings Ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (UK) July ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 7.7% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +80K v +55Ke

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $75M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior (1st allomtment in 11 weeks)
- (EU) ECB allotted $28M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.58% vs. $131M prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 11.5B vs. 11.5B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills

- Sold 3.0B vs. 3.0B indicated in 3-month Flexible Bills; Avg Yield: 0.509% v 0.599% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.29x v 1.81x prior
- Sold 8.5B vs. 8.5B indicated in12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.34% v 1.053% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.49x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK15B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (CH) Switzerland sold total CHF784.5M in 2021 and 2036 bonds
- (RU) Russia sold RUB11.6B vs. RUB11.6B indicated in 2023 OFZ bonds; Yield: 7.61% vs. guidance of 7.63-7.68%
- (DE) Germany sold 4.076B in new 2.0% 2023 Bunds; Avg Yield: 2.06% v 1.80% prior (highest since Oct 2011); Bid-to-cover: 1.29x v 1.33x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.20%, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,577, DAX +0.40% at 8,479, CAC-40 -0.10% at 4,113, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,817, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 17,450, SMI flat at 8,040, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,682]

Market Focal Points: Italy FTSE MIB outperforms on brokerage commentary related to banks, Apple suppliers in focus, Obama Syria Speech, UK Aug Unemployment Data

By Sector
- Technology
[Arm Holdings ARM.UK +4% (Apple's product announcement); Dialog Semi DLG.DE -5.5% (Apple's product announcement), Gemalto GTO.FR -3.5% (Apple's product announcement)]
- Financials [CaixaBank CABK.ES +3% (broker commentary), Unicredit UCG.IT +2% (broker commentary), Intesa ISP.IT +1% (broker commentary); Lloyds LLOY.UK -2% (renewed stake sale speculation), HSBC HSBA.UK -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Orpea ORP.FR (Reaffirmed FY forecast); Kingfisher KGF.UK -2% (H1 profits below ests), Vivendi VIV.FR -1.5% (speculation related to CEO position), British Sky BSY.UK -1% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [African Barrick Gold ABG.UK -8% (COO resigned), African Minerals AMI.UK -10% (cut sales forecast)]
- Industrials [Geberit GEBN.CH +1% (broker commentary); Alstom ALO.FR -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Nicox COX.FR +14% (positive opinion related to EU orphan drug status)]
- Stoxx50 Movers [Utilities +3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Basic Materials +0.1%, Financials flat, Industrials flat; Telecom -0.6%, Technology -0.3%, Energy -0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.10%]

Speakers:
- ECB's Coene: Clear that Greece will need more help; perhaps one or two more times

- EU's Barroso gave his State-of-Union Speech to EU Parliament and reiterated that the Crisis was not over and must not be complacent. He stressed that unemployment was the most urgent issue. Bond spreads were narrower and trust was returning to the region. He reiterated recovery is in sight for Europe, but not out of economic "heavy weather"
- Chinese Premier Li Keqiang spoke at World Economic Forum and noted that the international economic situation was complex and it's domestic economy was stable but in transition to sustainable growth. Emerging markets faced downward economic pressure. Stimulus won't help deep problems in Chins. He pledged that it would keep monetary policy stable even if capital markets show volatility
- France PM Ayrault: No plans for additional labor cost in new budget. Unemployment remains the priority for the govt
- Swiss KOF Institute raised its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts. 2013 GDP growth forecast was raised to to 1.6% from 1.3% and 2014 GDP growth forecasts to 1.9% from 1.7%
- Portugal Deputy PM Portas: Govt argued for a 2014 deficit to GDP ratio of 4.5% vs. 4.0% proposed by the Troika
- France said to lower its 2014 GDP growth forecast to +0.9% from +1.2% prior; maintain 2013 GDP at +0.1%
- Italy business group Confindustria raises Italy 2013 and 2013 GDP outlook. It noted that the economy was at a turning point but recovery from recession would be slow
- Swiss President Maurer: Franc cap exit will be difficult
- Catalonia President Mas: Catalonia cannot curt more without damaging welfare, on track to become independent state
- Russia Ambassador to France Orlov: France draft UN resolution was too hasty, Syria refusal should prompt new talks on sanctions

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were relatively calm this Wednesday. President Obama had endorsed the Russian proposal to negotiate the handover of Syria's chemical weapons, reducing the risk of an imminent military strike by Western forces. Dealers did concede that negotiations would be time consuming and once they begin there could still be hiccups
- The GBP/USD hit a 7-month high above 1.58 as the string of better UK economic data continued. Aug Jobless Claims Change fell for the 10th straight month. The rise in short dated Gilt yields since BOE announced forward guidance reflects the improvement in the economy. Given the recent string of strong economic data out of the UK many analysts believe that the BoE might start tightening before H1 2015 due to stronger data and investment well ahead of the Q3 2016 suggested by the Central Bank
- The EUR/USD remained contained within recent ranges with the pair at 1.3267 just ahead of the NY morning. The USDD/JPY was holding above parity

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy Treasury reportedly requests parliament raise 2013 net debt ceiling to 98B from 80B currently - financial press
- (PT) Portugal proposes new pension plan that calls for a 10% cut in pensions - press
- (ES) Spain said to have no impending plans to offer a new 50 year bond, any offering would depend on the market and investor interest - financial press; A related article in the FT said that the decline in yields has led Spanish officials to test demand for a possible 50-yr bond; The FT suggested that an inflation-linked bond could also be considered.
Recent Syria Stories:
- (SY) US President Obama: Requested that Congress delays its vote on military action while US pursues initiative with Russia for Assad to give up chemical weapon; Too early to tell if Russia proposal will succeed. - National address
-(SY) US President Obama has agreed to a UN discussion on the Russia plan for Syria chemical weapons - press - (SY) Congressional aide reportedly states US Senate may not vote on Syria attack at all this week - press
-(SY) White House aide reportedly has told House Democrats that diplomacy, rather than military action, is the priority at the moment regarding Syria.
- (SY) France said to have drafted UN Security Council resolution; will allow Syria 15 days to make complete declaration of entire chemical arms program - financial press; The draft resolution would also demand immediate UN inspections of all sites based on those declarations, threaten with additional necessary measures in the event of failure to comply.
- (SY) France Foreign Min Fabius: Russia Foreign Min Lavrov is not much in favor of any binding UN resolution regarding Syria
-(SY) Russia Foreign Minister: French proposal on Syria is not acceptable. Rejects holding Syria government accountable for using chemical weapons.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia to sell 2018 OFZ Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) EU to adopt Telecom-Market Proposals in Brussels
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni attends Confindustria Seminar
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug CPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 6th: No est v +1.3% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa July Manufacturing Production M/M: +2.0%e v -3.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Current Account Balance: 60Me v 574M prior; Trade Balance: 420Me v 561M prior; Exports: 13.0Be v 12.7B prior; Imports: 12.7Be v 12.2B prior
- 08:30 (EU) EU's Ashton in EU Parliament on Syria and Egypt
- 09:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Moenchengladbach
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July Industrial Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.8%e v -2.7% prior (revised from -2.4%); Manufacturing Production Y/Y: +1.1%e v -1.2% prior
- 10:00 (US) July Wholesale Inventories M/M: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly oil inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Miesbach
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (UK) BOE's Miles
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow data
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Campaign Rally, Geldern
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Portugal Foreign Min Machete in Brussels
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30 Year Real Return Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (EU) ECB Asmussen (Germany) speaks in Berlin
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Wrzburg
- 14:15 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck faces Voter Questions at Town Hall Event on ARD TV
- 17:00 (NZ) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Employment Change

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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