Thursday September 12, 2013 - 03:39:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Sep-2013 -0336 GMT
Minor profit-taking in the Nasdaq (3725.01, -4.01, -0.11%) and Shanghai (2235, -5.45, -0.24%) being seen. We had pointed out strong long-term Resistance in both yesterday. The Nikkei (14383, -0.29%) is also down marginally but ought to be bullish overall. Failure to rise further towards 15000 would be a surprise. But, the chances cannot be ruled out, as the Nikkei has been trading in a wide but contracting sideways range for the last several weeks and is now near the upper end of this range.
The DAX (8495.73, +49.19, +0.58%) rose strongly yesterday and might rise further towards 8700 or even higher. The Dow (15326.60, +135.54, +0.89%) rose relatively more and appears keen to test 15500-600.
The Nifty (5913.15) consolidated yesterday but is likely to test 6000 today. It could see profit-taking there. A break above 6000 will be needed to put fears of a dip to rest. With profit-taking possibly creeping in on the Nasdaq/ Shanghai/ Nikkei, it might be good to be a little cautious on the Nifty.
All Commodities show a support at current levels. So we may see a price rise in them in a couple of days.
Gold (1360) is down on speculation that the US Federal Reserve will commit to reduce stimulus within days. It is trading at a crucial Support now and has high chances of bouncing to 1375-1400. Silver (23.05) is in a downtrend having found good Resistance at 25-25 over the last several days. It could be vulnerable to deeper decline if the immediate Support at 22.50 breaks. But, the Gold/ Silver chart suggests relative strength in Silver going forward. So, that's a contrary signal that needs to be watched.
Copper (3.2520) is in a channel uptrend. As seen in the 3-Day Charts there is a support at current levels which may help the prices to move up to 3.4.
Nymex WTI (107.64) is up in an overall uptrend. The Daily MA’s chart shows a support at current levels which may help the prices to go up to 112. Brent (111.49) is close to the support at 111. We can also see a resistance at 113. It is uncertain as to which direction Brent will move.
The Euro (1.3309, -0.02%) has strengthened against the dollar as investors gain confidence in the European economy. It is tracking the strength in the Dax (8495.73) and is likely to remain in the range of 1.32-1.34 in the near term. Dollar Index (81.434) has dipped targeting 81.
The Pound (1.5817, -0.01%) strengthened, breaking above yesterday's resistance, after UK unemployment unexpectedly declined to 7.7% yesterday. A resistance is coming up near 1.60 on the line charts. Dollar Yen (99.4100, -0.48%) has dipped and would get a support near 98.5-98.0. If this holds it could test 102.
Aussie (0.9264, -0.70%) has dipped a bit after payrolls unexpectedly fell and unemployment rate climbed high. But it is in a near term uptrend likely to target 0.94 and above.
R-currencies are all strong including the Rand (9.8900) and the Real (2.274). The Ringgit (3.2555) has also strengthened and may target 3.20. The Rupee (63.38) is strong and might test 63.00 or even 62.70.
The US 10-Yr (2.89%) is down. The Japan 10-Yr (0.73%) and the US-Japan 10-Yr Spread (2.16%) are down.
The UK 10-Yr (2.83%) has moved past the resistance at 2.75%. It can move up to 2.90%. The UK-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.06%) is up sharply and is being reflected in GBPUSD strength.
0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Labour Force
...Expected 10.20 K ... Previous -11.4 K ...Actual -10.8 K
4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST IN IIP
...Previous - -2.20 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected -0.10 % ...Previous 0.70 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.00 % ...Previous 0.30 %
...Actual 7.70 % ...Previous 7.80 %
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