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Thursday September 12, 2013 - 10:38:21 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: BOE members reiterate view on forward guidance at Treasury Select Committee hearing EU Market Update: BOE members reiterate view on forward guidance at Treasury Select Committee hearing
Thu, 12 Sep 2013 5:51 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) raised Reference Rate by 25bps to 7.25%; not expected

- (DE) Germany Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.6% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.7%v 0.0% prior
- (FI) Finland July Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%
- (FR) France Aug CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.90 v 125.93e v 125.35 prior
- (FR) France Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (TR) Turkey July Current Account Balance: -$5.8B v -$5.5Be v -$4.5B prior
- (ES) Spain Aug CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (ES) Spain Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (ES) Spain Aug Core CPI M/M: +0.1% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7% prior
- (EU) ECB 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.5B prior; 68.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 86.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands July Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.2% v -3.7% prior
- (SE) Sweden Aug CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1%e; CPI Level: 313.84 v 313.55 prior
- (SE) Sweden Aug CPI CPIF (Underlying) M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.3%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.0% v 7.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Average House Prices (SEK): 2.182M v 2/139M prior
- (IT) Italy July Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -5.1% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -4.3% v -2.7%e
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%; as expected

- (HK) Hong Kong Q2 Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Q2 PPI Y/Y: -2.4% v 0.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Jun Unemployment Rate: 27.9% v 27.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone July Industrial Production M/M: -1.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -0.2%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI (incl tobacco): M/M: 0.4% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.1 v 1.1% prelim; CPI Ex Tobacco: 107.6 v 107.2 prior

- (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI EU Harmonized: M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2% prelim
- (ZA) South Africa July Mining Production Y/Y: +0.6% v -6.1%e v -6.2% prior; Gold Production Y/Y: +0.9% v -14.1% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total 5.5B vs. 5.5B indicated in 2016 and 2028 BTP Bonds

- Sold 4.0B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in new 2.75% Nov 2016 BTP Bonds; Avg Yield 2.72% (highest since Oct 2012) v 2.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.52x v 1.34x prior
- Sold 1.5B vs. 1.5B indicated in 4.75% Sept 2028 BTP; Avg Yield: 4.88% v 4.67% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.73x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total 2.0B in 2018 CCTeu auction
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B in 2017 I/L Bonds; Yield: 0.2346%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-Months Treasury Bills; Avg Yield: 3.84% v 3.97% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.12x v 1.60x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 3.75B in 2.25% 2023 Gilts; Avg Yield: 2.976% v 2.584% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.59x v 1.76x prior; Tails: 0.4bps v 0.2bps prior

Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.20%,
FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,565, DAX -0.30% at 8,473, CAC-40 -0.50% at 4,096, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8,865, FTSEMIB -1% at 17,391, SMI -0.50% at 8,041, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,685]

Market Focal Points: UK retailers' quarterly reports, Mining shares decline on lower metals prices

By Sector
- Utilities
[RWE RWE.DE -2.5% (concerns related to dividend)]
- Healthcare [Sanofi SAN.FR -1.5% (delays regulatory submission related to LIXISENATIDE)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Richemont CFR.CH -2.5% (5-month sales below ests); Home Retail HOME.UK +3.5% (Q2 sales above ests), Vivendi VIV.FR +2.5% (renewed break-up speculation)]
- Consumer Staples [Morrison Supermarkets MRW.UK +4.5% (reaffirmed forecast), Ocado OCDO.UK +1.5% (Q3 gross sales +16.4%)]
- Industrials [Kentz Corp KENZ.UK -11% (AMEC withdrew bid)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Kloeckner KCO.DE -1.5% (cautious broker commentary on EU steel industry)]
- Telecom [KPN KPN.NL +1.1% (continuing talks with America Movil)]
- Technology [ASM International ASM.NL +2% (broker commentary), SAP SAP.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Utilities -1%, Consumer Non Cyclical -0.80% Consumer Cyclical -0.30%, Energy -0.30%, Industrials -0.10%, Basic Materials ;Telecom +1.5%, Technology +1.3%, Financials +0.2%]

- (UK) BOE Gov Carney with members Fisher, Miles and McCafferty attend Treasury Select Committee hearing on inflation

- Gov Carney: Expected yield curve would steepen after forward guidance has introduced. Market expectations for jobless numbers have come in. Forecasts for jobless threshold now further out
- Member Fisher: Unemployment to fall back only gradual. Would have to think hard about BoE reaction if oil price spiked
- Member McCafferty: Inflation knockout very crucial to forward guidance. Voted for forward guidance to prevent overreaction to improving economy; upside risk to inflation
- EU official: Consensus view that Cyprus aid program is on track; disbursement planned for end-Sept. Mission to go to Portugal next week with Troika report to go to Eurogroup in Oct. Saw Portugal measures to offset expected shortfalls
-Troika technical mission arrives in Greece. The Review to assess whether Greece meets conditions to allow payment of 1.0B in early Oct
- Italy President Napolitano names Giuliano Amato Constitutional Court judge
- Slovenia may need to use the ESM for its banks
- Czech Govt see faster economic growth in 2014 above its +0.8% forecast
- OECD cuts Ireland 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.0% from 1.0% prior
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi: Japan not in a position to sell more bonds to stimulate the economy
- IMF's Zhu Min: US taper from QE will not cause crisis in emerging markets
- Ex-PBoC adviser Li Daokui: Sees no big impact from US QE taper
- Israel claims two shells have been fired from Syria and have hit southern Golan. Initial evidence shows shelling was 'errant
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Calls on Syria to join chemical weapons convention
- France Foreign Min Fabius: Reiterates that all options remain on the table regarding Syria and plan must be rapid, credible and verifiable

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was consolidating its recent soft tone against the major European currencies.
- Large option expiries at 99.50 said to provide a support in USD/JPY pair. Dealer chatter noted that Japanese exporter selling ahead of fiscal half-year end initially helped to support the yen in Asia session.
- AUD weakened following the second straight monthly decline in Australian employment. The AUD/USD pair at 0.9240 just ahead of the NY morning.
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor upward by 5 kopecks to 32.25-39.25 (7th time since August)
- A surprised rate hike by Indonesia showed the central bank's determination in supporting the Rupiah currency

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Hansson: The ECB has discussed another LTRO, but believe current policies seem appropriate
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Reiterates it is too early to tighten easy monetary policy; France must continue to conduct its reforms; its no secret inflation will probably stay below 2% through 2015.
- (EU) ECB's Praet: Single resolution mechanism is needed in a timely manner; ECB cannot be responsible for giving equity support to banks.
- (EU) EU's Dijsselbloem: Ireland may need access to facility to help its orderly exit from aid program, Portugal's exit will be even more difficult; Economic issues in Cyprus are not as bad as previously thought
- (EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Portugal could still have problems following the conclusion of their program
- (IT) Italy Senator Stefano: Panel to hold first vote on Berlusconi next week
- (SY) White House Press Sec: Have no timeline yet for any future vote on Syria; assessing the proposal from Russia will take time
- (SY) US State Dep spokesperson Psaki: Russia's plan for Syria comprises is an idea right now, rather than a developed proposal.
- (SY) Russia President Putin said military strike would unleash new wave of terrorism - NYTimes op/ed; Although chemical weapons were undoubtedly used, there is every reason to believe it was used by the opposition forces, not the Syrian Army, to provoke intervention.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italy Senate committee to discuss Berlusconi- 06:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on resolutions for Egypt and Syria
- (MX) Mexico Aug Same-Store Sales Y/Y: -1.0%e v -2.3% prior
- 06:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on resolutions for Egypt and Syria
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v $1.8B prior
-06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug CPI M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 6th: No est v $510.8B prior
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 07:40 (EU) ECB's Draghi speaks in Latvia
- 08:00 (IN) India Aug CPI Y/Y: 9.6%e v 9.6% prior
- 08:00 (IN) India July Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.8%e v -2.2% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 1.7% prior; Retail Sales Broad Y/Y: +1.3%e v -2.0% prior

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 321K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.97Me v 2.951M prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Import Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada July New Housing Price Index M/M: 1.9%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 09:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi post speech press conference
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Dudley in Paris on OTC Derivatives
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Aug Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior; House Price Index: No est v 158.16 prior
- 10:00 (US) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
- 10:30 (US) EIA weekly Natural Gas Inventories

- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Koblenz
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3,50B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 10-year TIPS announcement
- 12:00 (DE) German Free Democrats hold Party Congress in Mainz
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Aug International Reserves (ISK): No est v 475B prior
- 12:30 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Mnchen
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Neuss
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Aug Monthly Budget Statement: -$150.0Be v -$190.5B prior
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%




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