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Friday September 13, 2013 - 10:04:19 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Eurogroup and EcoFin meet in Lithuania on Cyprus tranche payment

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Eurogroup and EcoFin meet in Lithuania on Cyprus tranche payment
Fri, 13 Sep 2013 5:48 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Speculation that US President Obama to name Summers as new Fed Chairman after next week's Fed meeting with Treasury Undersecretary Brainard to be Vice Chairman
-Twitter files for an IPO
- Japan Cabinet again raises its Economic assessment (4 time in 5 months
- Spain Banks Aug ECB Net Borrowings decline for the 12th straight month
- Bank of Spain (BOS) 2Q Public Sector Debt Data: Debt to GDP at 92.2% (record level) v 88.2% prior
- Eurogroup and EcoFin meeting in Lithuania with Cyrus tranche payment as main topic

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Sept 9th: (RUB) 7.81T v 7.80T prior
- (JP) Japan July Final Industrial Production M/M: 3.4% v 3.2% prelim; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.6% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: +3.7% v -2.3% prior
- (SG) Singapore July Retail Sales M/M: -5.3% v +1.5%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -1.5%e; Ex Auto Y/Y: 2.5 v 2.5% prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Sept 6th (y/y): +9.2% v +3.3% prior
- (FI) Finland Aug CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.6%e
- (HU) Hungary July Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5% prelim
- (ES) Spain Q2 House Price Index Q/Q: No est v -6.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -14.3% prior
- (FI) Finland July Current Account Balance: -120M v +310M prior
- (EU) ECB 60M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0B prior; 59.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 68.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Aug Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.6%e
- (RU) Russia Aug YTD Budget Balance (RUB): 390B v 236.7B prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 157.2K v 151.7K tons prior
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) 2Q Public Sector Debt Data: Debt to GDP at 92.2% v 88.2% prior (**Note: 2013 target is 91.4%)
- (ES) Spain Banks Aug ECB Net Borrowings: 246.2B v 248.3B prior; 12 straight monthly decline)
- (IT) Italy July General Government Debt: 2.073T v 2.0751T prior
- (UK) July Construction Output M/M: 2.2% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Employment Q/Q:: -0.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.0% prior
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%, as expected

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2028 and 2046 Bonds


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%,
FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,570, DAX -0.20% at 8,474, CAC-40 -0.20% at 4,099, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 8,897, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 17,487, SMI -0.30% at 8,011, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,675]

- Market Focal Points: Speculation related to Fed taper and chairman position, Aerl Lingus warns on outlook, French banks underperform, Weakness in commodity prices weigh on miners, Upcoming Eurogroup/Eco-Fin meeting and US retail sales.

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Gerry Weber GWI1.DE -7% (Sales warning); Aerl Lingus AERL.UK -6.5% (profit warning); Bwin.Party BPTY.UK +3.5% (takeover speculation), NH Hotels +3% (broker commentary), Mediaset MS.IT +3% (broker commentary), Beiersdorf BEI.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Rhoen Klinikum RHK.DE +11% (asset sale agreement with Fresenius SE), Fresenius SE FRE.DE +4%]
- Consumer Staples [Suedzucker SZU.DE -2% (broker commentary)]
- Telecom [Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR -1% (broker commentary); Kabel Deutschland KD8.DE +5.5% (Vodafone received minimum acceptances for bid)]
- Financials [MunichRe MUV2.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Imagination Technology IMG.UK +8% (licensing agreement)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology -0.7%, Telecom -0.5%, Industrials -0.3%, Financials -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.20%; Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%, Energy flat, Utilities flat]

Speakers:
- US Sec of State Kerry: talks with Russian Foreign Min Lavrov were constructive

- Various Eurogroup Finance Ministers comment ahead of meeting on Cyrus
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Good progress is being made on the single resolution mechanism plan; good to be ambitious
- German Fin Min Scxhaeuble: Need to act fast on possible banking union; will discuss Greece's current financing; could be a remaining financial requirement
- France Fin Min Moscovici: Europe must focus on current Greek program; Reiterates Euro zone crisis is now over
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Spain will meet its commitments which are acheivable
- Cyprus Fin Min Georgiades: Europgroup to release 1.5B loan tranche; funds to be used to restructure of coop bank
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden: Cannot exclude additional aid for struggling euro zone countries but no aid seen in the short-term
- Turkey Deputy PM Babacan: Likely that the worst is over for Europe as crisis slowly fades away
- Belgium Budget Min Chastel stated that it would meet 2013 deficit and Debt targets of debt to under 100% of GDP and budget deficit to GDP of 2.9%, He added that it still need to find 1.8-2.0B to meet debt target and looking at all possible options
- Turkey Deputy PM Babacan: Likely that the worst is over for Europe as crisis slowly fades away
- Japan sales tax panel (private members): A delay in the sales tax hike risk pushing Japan into recession if it coincides with the BoJs monetary review. Japan must take steps so that rising corporate revenues increases both wages and jobs if consumption tax is increased
- Goldman economist for Germany Dirk Schumacher does not believe the upcoming German elections will be a "game-changer"

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- USD was firmer (but still locked in familiar ranges) during the European session aided by a rise in US bond yields. Market participants responded to a Japanese report that suggested Larry Summers could be named as the next Fed Chairman as early as next week
- The EUR/USD holding below the

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) According to former ECB official Bini-Smaghi, in 2011 Berlusconi discussed a potential euro exit with EMU officials - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans Pritchard
- EUR/USD: Goldman Sachs raises 3-mo EUR forecasts to $1.38 v $1.34 prior, 6-mo to $1.40 from $1.37 prior
- (EU) YTD European corporate issuance of hybrid debt has risen above $30B vs $7.7B for entire 2012 - FT
- (US) Survey finds 66% of economists expect Fed to begin to taper its asset purchase program at next week's policy meeting - financial press
-(SY) Syria President Assad: Chemical weapons deal with the UN is conditional on the US halting its aid to 'terrorists'; deal implementation may take a minimum of 1 month - Russia press interview; Will only complete its deal on chemical weapons if the US stops its 'policy of threats'; Calls on Israel to dispose of its WMD
- (SY) US Sec of State Kerry said to have informed Syria opposition forces that a military strike remains an option; is somewhat skeptical of the talks to take place in Geneva
-(SY) Syria's elite Unit 450 has dispersed chemical weapons stockpiles to over 50 sites to make them more difficult to track and attack - press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (SY) Syrian Envoy Brahimi to meet US Sec of State Kerry and Russia Foreign Min Lavrov
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Trade Balance: No est v 3.0B prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 - (BR) Brazil July Economic Activity Index M/M: -0.6%e v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.4% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Sept 6th: No est v $275.5B prior
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.7%e v -0.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug CPI M/M: -0.3%e v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug PPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Retail Sales Advance M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Ex Auto and Gas: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Control Group: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q2 Capacity Utilization Rate: 80.6%e v 81.1% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Euro-Area Finance Ministers meet
- 09:55 (US) Sept Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 82.0e v 82.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) July Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior

- 10:00 (US) US-China Economic and Security Review Commission
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Osnabrck
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.0-4.0B in Notes
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Wuppertal
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 10.6%e v 10.6% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.7% prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug Tax Collections (BRL): No est v 94.3B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

Weekend
- (DE) German state of Bavaria holds its elections (**Note: Federal elections on Sept 22nd)

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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