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Monday September 16, 2013 - 10:16:31 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk appetite maintains footing after Summers withdraws from consideration to be next Fed chief EU Market Update: Risk appetite maintains footing after Summers withdraws from consideration to be next Fed chief
Mon, 16 Sep 2013 5:45 AM EST

- Presumed front-runner Larry Summers bows out of the race to succeed Fed Chairman Bernanke citing high likelihood of an "acrimonious" confirmation process; stocks around the globe rally while the USD was falling

- Former Treasury Sec Geithner reaffirmed that he would not be considered for Fed Chairman position
- US and Russia announced an agreement on outline of Syria chemical weapons plan, giving Assad regime one week to disclose a comprehensive listing of chemical stockpiles and allowing international inspectors until mid-2014 to complete the destruction of the weapons
- German Chancellor Merkel's ally, the CSU party, was victorious in Germany's 2nd most populated state of Bavaria's state elections with 49% of the vote (vs. 43.4% in 2008); Federal elections set for this upcoming weekend (Sept 22nd); FDP coalition member struggles to hit the 5% level to be represented in Parliament
- India Wholesale Prices (WPI) stays above the 5% level for the third straight month; RBI decision on Friday
- German DAX Index hits fresh all-time highs above 8,600

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Aug Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.7%e; third straight month above the 5% level

- (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (CZ) Czech July Export Price Index Y/Y: -0.3% v -1.1% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.9% prior
- (DK) Denmark Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.9% v +0.5% prior
- (TR) Turkey Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.6%e
- (EU) ECB 67.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 60.0M prior; 71.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 59.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy July Total Trade Balance: 5.9B v 3.6B prior; Trade Balance EU: 3.2B v 1.2B prior
- (AT) Austria Aug CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug Trade Balance (NOK): 28.8B v 35.3B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Labor Costs: 0.9% v 1.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 2.23B vs. 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills

- Sold 1.02B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.038% v 0.008%prior; Bid-to-cover: 3x.0 v 2.86x prior
- Sold 1.21B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Yield 0.054% v 0.062% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.9x v 2.54x prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK7.0B vs. NOK7.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Yield: 1.79%
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) sold total 108.5M vs. 100M indicated in 2016 and 2023 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +1%,
FTSE 100 +0.8% at 6,636, DAX +1.1% at 8,602, CAC-40 +0.8% at 4,148, IBEX-35 +0.80% at 9,006, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 17,644, SMI +0.40% at 8,070, S&P 500 Futures +1.1% at 1,700]

- Market Focal Points: Risk appetite rises as Larry Summers exit race for Fed Chairman, DAX hits record high, ECB officials talk down rates, Tues-Wed Fed Meeting

By Sector
- Financials
[Optimal Payments OPAY.UK +10% (H1 profits rose sharply y/y), Barclays BARC.UK +2% (broker commentary), Danske Bank DANSKE.DK +1% (named new CEO); Raiffeisen RBI.AT -5% (raised loan loss provisions)]
- Consumer Discretionary [H&M HMB.SE +4% (Aug sales above ests), Air France AF.FR +2% (speculation related to job cuts); French Connection FCCN.UK -3% (H1 loss widened)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE (speculation related to Uralkali's strategy); African Barrick ABG.UK Gold -13% (underperforms mining sector), Fresnillo FRES.UK -12% (underperforms mining sector), Polymetal POLY.UK -7% (underperforms mining sector)]
- Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT -1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Genmab GEN.DK +8% (FDA decision on ARZERRA], Sanofi SAN.FR +1% (broker commentary))
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Basic Materials +1.9%, Consumer Cyclical +1.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.2% Financials +1.2%, Industrial +1.1%, Telecom +0.9%, Technology +0.6%, Energy +0.3% Utilities +0.10%]

- ECB's Draghi:
Could not have growth without stable foundation. He reiterated forward guidance that key rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Reiterates saw very tentative green shoots, but there would not be interest rate hike any time soon
- Spain Fin Min De Guindos: Reiterates Spain's crisis is not over, on track to meet 2013 deficit target (6.5%) as more cuts are not needed
- Spain Industry Min Soria: Need to see final numbers before looking at budget deficit
- India govt advisor Rangarajan: RBI to consider inflation and Fx movements on policy
- WSJ Fed Watcher Hilsenrath: With Summers out of the race, Fed more likely to continue with current policy
- France President office: France, UK and US to press for strong UN resolution on Syria with detailed and binding dates

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite picked up in Asia after Larry Summers withdrew his candidacy for Fed Chairman. The perception had been that Summers was more likely to hasten the exit from QE. He was said to have been the front runner for the position prior to his withdrawal.
The greenback was softer against the major pair as the likelihood of tapering of Fed policy would now be slow and gradual
The European session was a bit more subdued as it digested the weekend news. The USD maintained a steady tone after its Asian sell-off. EUR/USD at 1.3350 ahead of the NY morning while USD/JPY was holding below the 99 level. GBP/USD was back towards the pyshological 60 handle.
- The focus on risk assets will be on Wednesday's FOMC outcome

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Praet: ECB has room to maneuver on policy in response to Fed-triggered volatility - financial press; ECB could act to cut the corridor between different rates
- Bank of International Settlements' (BIS): Subdued inflation expectations said to help in preventing a rout in govt bonds comparable to that of 1994 - financial press
- (DE) Chancellor Merkel's ally, the CSU party, was victorious in Germany's 2nd most populated state of Bavaria's state elections with 49% of the vote (vs. 43.4% in 2008) - German press citing initial exit polls; Merkel coalition partner, FDP, received 3.1% of the vote vs the 5% needed to win seats in the Bavarian state parliament in Munich; In 2008 the FDP received 8% support.
- (GR) Oct loan tranche said to be possibly delayed; Greece expects financing gap in 2016 at approx 10-15B - financial press
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Govt to announce new economic forecasts on Sept 20.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CY) IMF to decide on Cyprus tranche of 86M
- (GR) Greece Trokia review to begin (Sept 16-17th)
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank holds Extra tightening day
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Trade Balance: No est v -$2.0B prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q2 Preliminary GDP Annualized: 4.5%e v 5.1% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON1.0B in 12-month Bills
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.9%e v 0.2% prior
- 07:30 (UK) Business Sec Cable speaks at Party Conference
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug CPI Core M/M: -0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (CH) Swiss Gov question time in Parliament
- 08:30 (US) Sept Empire Manufacturing: 9.00e v 8.24 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Int'l Securities Transactions: +8.0Be v -C$15.4B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.2B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Aug YTD Budget Balance: Level (PLN): No est v -25.9B prior; Budget Balance: Performance YTD: No est v 72.9% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium July Trade Balance: No est v 619.3M prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Aug Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- 09:15 (US) Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.9%e v 77.6% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.4%e v -0.1% prior
- 09:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Loerrach
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 09:45 (UK) Dep PM Clegg answers questions at U.K. Liberal Democrat Conference
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Duderstadt
- 11:00 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Emden
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $0.75-1.50B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Emmendingen
-13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Potsdam
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Freiburg
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Policy Meeting - September Minutes
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Sept Policy Minutes
- (PE) Peru July Economic Activity Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior
- (PE) Peru Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.0% prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug Tax Collections (BRL): No est v 94.3B prior




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