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Monday September 16, 2013 - 20:40:24 GMT
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New Fed Chief search begins. Active week
|New Fed Chief search begins. Active week|
17 September 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: No Major data. Europe: GB- PPI/CPI/RPI, DE- ZEW North America: US- CPI, TIC flows. NAHB Index, API Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW, US- CPI, NAHB Index
- The decision by Larry Summers to remove his name from contention to be the Fed Chair came as a shock to markets as he was the favorite for the job. Bond yields fell initially on the news on hopes for a more dovish candidate. Janet Yellen is seen as a likely candidate. Fixed Income prices are turning lower late in the U.S. session.
- The major focus this week is the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Markets are already set up for the central bank to announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. From a trading perspective, the big surprise would be no reduction in debt purchases.
- We feel Bernanke will start the Fed taper cautiously and will cut its $85bln in asset purchases by $10-15 bln initially to see what happens. One scenario we have proposed is that Bernanke could propose a flexible taper target on Wednesday
- Tuesday sees U.K. and U.S. CPI data. The latest German ZEW survey is slated as well.
- Wednesday sees U.S. Housing starts, then Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Thursday also features U.K. CPI data. On Friday Canadian CPI data are released. On Sunday Germany will hold what looks to be closely contested national elections. Merkel's allies did well in Bavaria over the weekend.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
||JGB 0.73% 0bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.93% -5bp
||U.S. 2.85% -5 bp
||North America: Higher|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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