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Monday September 16, 2013 - 20:40:24 GMT
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New Fed Chief search begins. Active week
|New Fed Chief search begins. Active week|
17 September 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: No Major data. Europe: GB- PPI/CPI/RPI, DE- ZEW North America: US- CPI, TIC flows. NAHB Index, API Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW, US- CPI, NAHB Index
- The decision by Larry Summers to remove his name from contention to be the Fed Chair came as a shock to markets as he was the favorite for the job. Bond yields fell initially on the news on hopes for a more dovish candidate. Janet Yellen is seen as a likely candidate. Fixed Income prices are turning lower late in the U.S. session.
- The major focus this week is the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Markets are already set up for the central bank to announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. From a trading perspective, the big surprise would be no reduction in debt purchases.
- We feel Bernanke will start the Fed taper cautiously and will cut its $85bln in asset purchases by $10-15 bln initially to see what happens. One scenario we have proposed is that Bernanke could propose a flexible taper target on Wednesday
- Tuesday sees U.K. and U.S. CPI data. The latest German ZEW survey is slated as well.
- Wednesday sees U.S. Housing starts, then Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Thursday also features U.K. CPI data. On Friday Canadian CPI data are released. On Sunday Germany will hold what looks to be closely contested national elections. Merkel's allies did well in Bavaria over the weekend.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
||JGB 0.73% 0bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.93% -5bp
||U.S. 2.85% -5 bp
||North America: Higher|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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