Tuesday September 17, 2013 - 03:40:53 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 17-Sep-2013 -0338 GMT
The Dow (15494.78, +0.77%) has risen well on Larry Summers exiting the race for Fed Chairmanship. But, it may find Resistance near 15600-700. If tthat holds, it may find itself moving back to 15500.
Dax (8613, +1.22%) has risen sharply on the Summers news, reaking resistance near 8570. It is now likely to rise further targeting resistance near 8800 on the 3-Day charts.
Nikkei (14426.45, +0.15%) remains consolidative for now whereas Shanghai (2218.37,-0.58%) has fallen sharply. The long-term Resistance we've been mentioning for a while is holding well and we may see a decline towards 2175.
Nifty (5840) fell sharply yesterday going against the rise other world markets and strength in Rupee. The Nifty was pulled down by the sharp rise in the WPI inflation. Today's price action is going to be crucial to determing direction for the rest of the month.
Gold (1313.60) is down further. It is looking particularly weak now and can fall to 1275. Silver (21.9350) is also down, trading below resistance at 22.5. Can target 20 while the Resistacne holds.
Copper (3.2155) has fallen back after rising to almost 3.28 yesterday. Does not seem to be holding up. Dip in the Shanghai today is worrying. Currently consolidatingbetween 3.20-3.25. It may fall to 3.19 if Support breaks.
Nymex WTI (105.80) and Brent (109.69) have fallen below the support at 106 and 111 respectively. We can expect at further fall now. The Nymex WTI 3-Day MA’s chart is showing a support at current levels, which may help push prices back up to 108.
The Dollar Index (81.28) trades just above crucial long-term Support. Need to see if it bounces. Some profit-taking in the Euro (1.3330) from yesterday's 1.3386. Resistance at 1.3352, the 200-week MA, which is holding it down for now. Market may quieten down till the FOMC announcement tomorrow.
Dollar-Yen (99.29) overall ranged between 98.50-100.50 for next few days. Medium term outlook also ranged. Profit-taking being seen in the Pound (1.5893) as well, which is down from 1.5963 yesterday. Overall trend remains bullish, targeting much higher levels of 1.65 in the long term.
In the big picture, the bounce in the Aussie (0.9303) from the 100-mth MA (0.8897) this month has been very impressive. But, it is finding some Resistance at the 21-week MA at 0.9340 now and might want to consolidate a bit before moving higher.
The R-currencies have given back some gains against the Dollar yesterday. Dollar-Rupee has opened higher near 63.30+. A rise past 63.50 can take it higher towards 63.75+.
The 2.85% Support on the US 10-Yr (2.86%, down from Friday) is being tested. Could break after the FOMC tomorrow, unless there's a sharp bounce. US yields could be peaking. Could lead to strength in non-Dollar currencies except Yen.
The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.17%) is beginning to rise again. Could help the Euro gain. The US-Japan 10-Yr Spread (2.13%) has come down from 2.22% and is testing trend Support now. Can start moving up again if this Support holds.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.46%) has come off a bit, but is ranged overall, at best betweeen 8.25-8.75%. A pessismistic scenario would be a rise towards 9.00. With WPI Inflation rising to 6.10% yesterday, there seems to be little chance of a rate cut by the RBI this Friday.
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.70 % ... Previous 2.80 %
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Trade Bal
...Expected 15.30 EUR Bln ...Previous 14.90 EUR Bln
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Expected 16.50 EUR Bln ...Previous 16.90 EUR Bln
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.15 %
13:00 GMT or 18:30 IST US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected -45.30 $ Bln ...Previous -66.87 $ Bln
EU CPI (YoY)
...Actual 1.39 % ...Previous 1.65 %
US Industrial Production
...Actual 0.40 %...Previous 0.00 %
US Capacity Utilization
...Actual 77.80 %...Previous 77.60 %
...Actual 6.10 %...Previous 5.79 %
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