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Tuesday September 17, 2013 - 10:19:55 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets generally ignore UK CPI and German ZEW data, as Fed begins two day meeting

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets generally ignore UK CPI and German ZEW data, as Fed begins two day meeting
Tue, 17 Sep 2013 5:47 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Euro Zone has bond and equity-related outflows in July
-Bond trading cautious as Fed begins 2-day meeting
-UK CPI data has little impact on Gilt and Short Sterling Futures
- Subdued market reaction to better than expected German ZEW data (highest since April 2010)

***Economic Data***
- (UK) AUG PPI OUTPUT CORE M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1%E
- (UK) AUG PPI OUTPUT M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.8%E
- (UK) AUG PPI INPUT M/M: -0.2% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.0%E
- (UK) AUG RPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.2%E; RPI EX MORTGAGE INTEREST PAYMENTS (RPIX)Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.2%E; RETAIL PRICE INDEX: 251.0 V 249.7 PRIOR
- (UK) AUG CPI M/M:0.4 % V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E
- (EU) EURO ZONE SEPT ZEW SURVEY EXPECTATIONS: 58.6 V 44.0 PRIOR
- (EU) EURO ZONE JULY TRADE BALANCE SEASONALLY ADJ: 11.1B V 13.5B PRIOR; TRADE BALANCE NSA: 18.2B V 16.5B PRIOR
- (DE) GERMANY SEPT ZEW BUSINESS SENTIMENT: 49.6 V 45.0E (highest since Apr 2010); CURRENT SITUATION: 30.6 V 20.0E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY: 58.6 V 44.0 PRIOR

Fixed Income:
-(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 4.56B in 6-month and 12-month bills v indication of 3.5-4.5B
- Sold 1.44B in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.911% v 0.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.7x v 2.95x prior; Max Yield: 0.945% v 0.850% prior; Tail: bps 3.4 v 2.0bps prior
- Sold 3.12B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 1.367% v 1.253% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x v 2.02x prior; Max Yield: 1.390% v 1.278% prior; Tail: bps 2.3 v 2.5bps prior
-(CH) Switzerland sold CHF828.4M in 3-month bills; Yield -0.083 v -0.075 prior
-(GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B v 1.0B indicated in 13-week bills; average yield: 4.02% v 4.02% prior; bid-to-cover 1.94x v 1.87x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:

Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,603, DAX -0.20% at 8,595, CAC-40 -0.40% at 4,136, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 8,932, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 17,653, SMI -0.30% at 8,008, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,689]

Market Focal Points: Cautious trading as Fed begins day one of 2-day meeting, Chinese equities biggest one day loss since July

By Sector
-Financials [Lloyds LLOY.UK -2% (share placement), French banks are broadly lower amid concerns about a new tax (BNP BNP.FR -1%, Credit Agricole ACA.FR -1%, SocGen GLE.FR -1%); RBS -1.5% (broker commentary); Deutsche Bank DBK.DE +0.50% (broker commentary)]
-Basic Resources/Materials [SDF SDF.DE -3.5% (profit-taking), Evraz EVR.UK -4% (broker commentary), GlencoreXstrata GLEN.UK -2.5% (broker commentary)]
Industrials [Continental CON.DE -3.5% (share placement)]
-Energy [Total FP.FR-1.5% (speculation related to placement)]
-Consumer Discretionary [Debenhams DEB.UK+2% (reaffirmed outlook)]
-Technology [Imagination Technologies IMG.UK -2.5% (reaffirmed outlook), Philips PHIA.NL -2% (issued longer-term outlook)]
-Stoxx50 Movers [Energy -1%, Consumer Cyclical -1.1%, Telecom -0.8%, Technology -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.4% Financials -0.2%, Industrials -0.1% ; Utilities +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%]

Speakers:
-Treasury Minister Alexander: Reiterates early stages of economic recovery, pressures could remain on budget. Sees no sign of UK housing market bubble.
-Libya National Oil Corporation (NOC) Chairman Berruien: Zawiya refinery now receiving oil from Sharara field. Libya is now producing 200-240K bpd
-Libya Deputy Oil Min Shakmak: Libya oil production not less than 500K bpd
-German financial regulator BaFin Pres Koenig: ESRB has not met expectations, too busy looking at the past financial crisis. Systemic banks must be allowed to fail.
-UK Chancellor Osborne: Proceeds in Llyod's sale to help reduce national debt by over 0.5B
-China Securities Fin Corp: China to expand its short selling program to include 287 stocks from 87 prev.
-Ireland PM Kenny: 2014 budget will be tough
-ECB's Liikanen (Finland): More capital at banks is need to restore confidence. Eurozone inflation to remain subdued until 2015, but there is small risk of a full blown Euro crisis.
-ESM's Regling: ESM to issue 9B in 2013, 14B in 2014, EFSF to issue 7.5B in 2013, 34B in 2014
-ZEW Economists: Optimism has increased due to improved economic outlook for the Eurozone. They say it seems now that worst expectations for emerging markets crisis did not materialize. Recently released German data has fallen short of expectations.
-ECB's Praet: Asset quality review will aim to reduce the gaps on information that paralyze markets

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD remained in a tight 30 pip range ahead of the start of day one of the two day Fed meeting, with the topside around 1.3350. Traders are anticipating that US stimulus will be wound back and the market is reflecting the hesitation to put on new positions without further clarification. Euro climbed a bit higher after EU and German ZEW came in higher than expected with Germany's coming in a multi-year high. USD/JPY held below 100 resistance level with a 35 pip range starting at 99.00, also waiting to see the signals that the Fed will give on future interest rate decisions. GBP/USD remained little change despite PPI, RPI and CPI data released.

Political/In the Papers:
-(NL) Netherlands govt to buy 37 F-35 joint strike fighter planes from Lockheed Martin
-(IT) Italy's Berlusconi to re-launch PDL party with video message today
-(FR) France said to be planning a new tax for banks
-(NO) Norway to cut the wealth and inheritance taxes in the 2014 budget; savings seen at 2.2B
-(DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates decision on Greece assistant to be made in 2014
-(RU) Russia to cut oil pipeline exports to Belarus to 3.1M tons in Q4 v 5.3M tons estimated in Q3

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (IL) Israel July Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -0.7% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 2.5B in 6-month bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Deposit tender to sterilize prior bonds purchases under SMP progarm
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave key rates unchanged: Expected to leave Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 7.75%; Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Average Gross Wages M/M: -1.0%e v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 3.5% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Employment M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.6%e v -0.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.5%e v -0.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug CPI NSA: 233.852e v 233.596 prior; CPI Core Index: No est v 234.004 prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 211.8B v 211.5B prior
- 09:00 (US) July Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$19.0B -prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v -$66.9B prior
- 09:00 (NL) Netherlands Govt presents budget to parliament
- 10:00 (US) Sept NAHB Housing Market Index: 59e v 59 prior
- (US) Federal Reserve begins 2-day FOMC Meeting
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Magdeburg
- 11:00 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbruck campaign event in Wuppertal
- 11:00 (UA) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $ in 4-week and 52-week Bills
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Rsselsheim
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at CDU Election Rally Near Frankfurt
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

 

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