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Wednesday September 18, 2013 - 09:13:56 GMT
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Fed taper today? Hawkish BOE minutes
|Fed taper today? Hawkish BOE minutes|
18 September 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR: North America: US- Housing Starts/Permits, Weekly Crude, FOMC Decision
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Housing Starts/Permits. Fed Decision
- The immediate major focus is the Fed policy decision later. Markets are set up for the central bank to announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. From a trading perspective, the big surprise would be no change. The street expects a cautious taper cautiously with a $10-15 bln cut in $85bln monthly purchases. We propose a flexible taper target.
- Janet Yellen now appears to be the logical candidate to replace Bernanke in January. A leak late Monday had the smell of a trial balloon to us. This can be good way to test the waters about a possible appointee.
- Bank of England policy board minutes from two weeks ago . Saw unanimous votes to keep interest rates steady and the size of asset purchases unchanged. Comments about the economy leaned to the hawkish side. The GBP has gained on the statement. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Wednesday sees U.S. Housing starts, then Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Thursday also features U.K. CPI data. On Friday Canadian CPI data are released. On Sunday Germany will hold what looks to be closely contested national elections.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
||JGB 0.72% 0bp
||Asia Close Mixed|
||Bund 1.96% -1bp
||U.S. 2.84% -1 bp
||North America: Higher|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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