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Thursday September 19, 2013 - 03:39:48 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 19-Sep-2013 -0336 GMT


GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
So, the Fed did not do the taper. The Dow (15676.94) has predictably closed sharply higher. But, it has not broken the Resistance near 15750. However, the Nasdaq (3783.64) has risen past its earlier long-term trend resistance.

Will the market now worry about global growth prospects? Or will it party afresh on continuing liquidity? Note that the Fed has reduced its forecast for US growth range from 2.3-2.6% to 2.0-2.3%. We certainly live in very interesting times.

Asia-Pac is mostly up, between +0.99% (Malaysia) and +4.31% (Indonesia). South Korea, Taiwan and China are closed. The extra-strong rise in Indonesia suggests that the Nfty (5899.45) could be carried past 6000. If so, the upside target will be 6200.


COMMODITIES
Commodities have advanced sharply as the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from cutting economic stimulus.

Gold (1364.30) has alternated between strong gains and losses yesterday registering a high of 1366.90 and a low of 1281.80. It is currently trading higher. But, yesterday's price action is abnormal. The trend support on the line chart has held well. We see a resistance at 1375. If this holds it can push the prices back down to 1275. Silver (23.16) has moved past the resistance at 22.25. The charts show an outer resistance at 23.5 which can push the prices back to 21.

Copper (3.3255) has also moved past the resistances at 3.23 and at 3.27. There is an upcoming resistance at 3.39 which may bring down the prices.

Nymex WTI (108.71) has bounced from the crucial long term support moving past the resistance at 107. An upward movement to 110 can be seen. Brent (111.06) is up. A further rise to 113-114 while above 111.


CURRENCIES
Euro (1.352) has risen sharply as the FED maintains bond purchases at $85 bln. It is trading high for now after breaking resistance at 1.35. It could rise a little more towards 1.36. Dollar Index (80.174) has finally been pushed below 81 now on the QE news. The Dollar has weakened against major currencies including the Euro, Yen (98.261) and the Brazilian Real (2.184) and is trading low.

Pound (1.6134) has risen a long-term resistance. It could pause for a while but trying to sell this rise might be hazardous. Dollar Yen (98.261) has come down sharply but is facing support at current level. There are chances that it could again bounce back to 99 else it could fall further towards 97.

Aussie (0.9503) has also risen maintaining the uptrend. It may rise towards 0.97. Dollar Rupee (63.38) has chances of trading in the range of 62.50-62.0 today.


INTEREST RATES
The US 10-Yr (2.69%) has fallen more than the 2.85-75% we'd suggested yesterday. There are prospects of further fall towards 2.60% with an outside chance of a rally to 2.80% before that. Path of least Resistance says 2.60%, though.

The German-US 2-Yr (-0.10%) has shot up. The US-Japan 10-Yr (2.10%) has broken its uptrend. The UK-US 10-Yr (+0.14%) has skyrocketed, taking the Pound up with it.

Question now will be, will the rest of the world be able to live with relatively higher yields and stronger currencies? Unfortunately, with policy rates near Zero and QE alreasy on, there's no direct way they can push relative yields lower.


DATA TODAY
7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST SNB Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Current Account Balance
...Expected -96.00 $ Bln ...Previous -106.00 $ Bln

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Philifed Index
...Expected 10.50 ...Previous 9.3

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales (Mln)
...Expected 5270 K ...Previous 5390 K

 

DATA YESTERDAY

UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %

US Housing Starts (Mln)
...Actual 891K ...Previous 883 K

US FOMC Meeting
...Actual < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %

 


 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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