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Thursday September 19, 2013 - 16:00:46 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Taper on Hold For Now

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Taper on Hold For Now
Thu, 19 Sep 2013 11:40 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Sept CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 9 v 2e; Selling Prices: +3 v 0 prior
- (IE) Ireland Q2 GDP Q/Q: +0.4% v +0.9%e v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.8%e
- (IE) Ireland Q2 Current Account Balance: 2.9B v 1.2B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 5%, as expected
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 309K v 292K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.787 v 2.871M prior
- (US) Q2 Current Account Balance: -$98.9B v -$96.3Be
- (CA) Canada July Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: +1.5% v +1.5%e
- (BE) Belgium Sept Consumer Confidence Index: -7 v -12 prior
- (MX) Mexico Q2 Aggregate Supply and Demand: 1.8% v 0.2% prior
- (US) Sept Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 22.3 v 10.3e
- (US) Aug Existing Home Sales: 5.48M v 5.25Me
- (US) Aug Leading Index: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (US) EIA weekly Natural Gas Inventories +46 bcf v +55-60 bcf expected

- It's the Fed's market this morning, as the hold on QE sends equities higher and interest rates lower worldwide. However US indices are not rising further above the gains seen after the Fed decision yesterday afternoon. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.1%, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq are up 0.1% a piece.

- For sharp observers, the Fed's decision to hold pat on QE is pretty unremarkable. When keeping in mind that Chairman Bernanke and all other Fed officials have reiterated for three months that any decision to taper would be primarily data-driven, it's not hard to believe that recent data softness stayed the Fed's hand. The decision to hold is even less surprising given the growing likelihood of a government shutdown and fiscal armageddon later this month thanks to policy gambling by the House GOP. The entire market is now focused on whether the taper will begin at the next FOMC conclave in October or the December meeting, or later. Yesterday, Bernanke highlighted that an unscheduled conference call after an FOMC meeting was entirely possible in the event of an unexpected policy move, making the lack of a scheduled press conference in October irrelevant. The choice of the new Fed chairman may also play a role: as PIMCO's Bill Gross put it, yesterday's decision looks like a handoff between Bernanke and the frontrunner, Janet Yellen.

- The US economic data out this morning was very good. The Philly Fed survey was much stronger than expected, with a headline number that jumped 13 points to a 30-month high of 22.3, while the six-month foreward outlook gained 20 points to a 10-year high of 58.2. This follows a solid performance in the Empire State survey earlier this week. August existing home sales hit yet another six-year high. The jobless claims did not suffer as much from the delayed filings in California and Nevada as had been expected, although the Labor Department cautioned that the two states are still working through their issues. Initial claims are poised to drop below 300K, while the four-week average of initial claims is at its lowest level since fall 2007.

- McDonalds gave up all its post-decision gains and then some today after analysts dismissed its 5% dividend increase. Bank of America warned that investors were looking for more like +10% and many consider the modest increase just another sign of the company's cautious outlook.

- JPMorgan has admitted wrongdoing and payed $920M in fines in civil settlements with US and UK regulators over the 'London Whale' situation. However the deal has not put possible criminal charges behind it, and the CFTC said it intends to recommend an enforcement action against the bank for its derivatives trading.

- In earnings news, Rite Aid is up more than 15% after reporting a small Q2 profit (versus expectations for a loss) and raised its FY14 guidance significantly. Executives said they are seeing strong tailwinds in 2014 from more people insured under Obamacare. Shares of Oracle are more or less flat after the firm reported pretty solid Q1 results on good y/y growth.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q2 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 2.8% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasuries to sell $13B in 10-Year TIPS Reopening

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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