Friday September 20, 2013 - 03:37:04 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Sep-2013 -0334 GMT
As feared, Equities are not seeing follow-through buying and are vulnerable
to profit-taking instead.
The Dow saw profit-taking yesterday. The Resistance at 15700 mentioned
yesterday is holding and could push the Dow down again. Asia-Pac is mixed,
largely down. The Nikkei (14779, +0.09%) trades only marginally higher.
The Nifty (6115.55) rose yesterday, of course, but is hugely Overbought.
Expect profit-taking to kick in. It may be wrong to initiate Longs at these
The metals have remained stable since yesterday. There is a fall in the Oil prices.
Gold (1362.90) is testing a near term resistance at 1375-1380, if this breaks it can move up to midterm resistance at 1400, which if holds can bring down the prices to 1300.
Silver (23.005) may consolidate for a while between the support at 22.5 and the resistance at 23.5 and can move either ways from there.
Copper (3.345) is rising. The resistance at 3.39 may bring down the prices to 3.30.
Nymex WTI (106.10) and Brent (108.61) fell for the fourth time in five days as Libya’s oil output increased. WTI has fallen below the support at 107. Our yesterday’s prediction has been proved wrong. The daily line chart shows a support at 104. It may bounce back to 109 if it falls to 104. The Brent Charts show a support at 107.2-107.3 a bounce to 110 may be expected from here.
The Euro (1.3535) has risen a bit and is still above 1.35. It is likely to move towards 1.36 before deciding its further move. Dollar Index (80.343) is low and may need some time to recover.
Pound (1.6042) has fallen after yesterday’s sharp rise and is facing resistance at current levels. There are chances of it coming back towards 1.59. Dollar Yen (99.328) has bounced back and could stay ranged for sometime now. Yen tumbled against the Euro, EURJPY (134.39) after the FED news. Investors are prompted to borrow low-interest-rate currencies to buy high yielding assets.
Aussie (0.94501) has dipped a bit and could remain ranged foe now. Support coming up at 0.94.
R-Currencies are mixed. The Ringgit (3.1652) soared high registering its biggest advance since 1998 as FED refrained tapering. The Ruble (31.669) has recorded gains after US Federal Reserve pared from Cutting Stimulus. The Rand (9.7084) looks weak in the near term. Dollar Rupee (61.77) is trading low with support coming up at 61.60. Needs to see if it breaks this level or rises from here. Watch out for what Mr. Rajan has to say after the RBI Meeting today.
The US 10-Yr (2.74%) has bounced back a bit from the levels near 2.69% the
day before. Expect Resistance in the 2.80-85% region though.
Raghu Rajan's maiden RBI Meeting today. Some hopes are there of either an
enhancement of the MSF limit or a reduction in the MSF rate. That could
bring down rates a bit. But, being perverse as it is, the market might not
be enthused. It may still want to sell the Nifty and possibly buy
Dollar-Rupee Forward Rates could come down a bit, though, if the MSF limit
is raised or rate is reduced.
Question: Is having Shobha De drool over you a lucky sign for RBI Governors,
or not? We will find out today.
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Previous - 7.25 %
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous - 6.25 %
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Previous - 4.00 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous - 1.30 %
...Actual < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
US Current Account Balance
...Actual -99.00 $ Bln ...Previous -106.00 $ Bln
US Philifed Index
...Actual 22.3 ...Previous 9.3
US Existing Home Sales (Mln)
...Actual 5.48 Mln ...Previous 5.39 Mln
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