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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - FED WOBBLES ON GUIDANCE

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2013

 

FED WOBBLES ON GUIDANCE

 

• US data to question Fed’s tapering decision; focus shifts to fiscal debate

• German Election outcome hangs on FDP, but short-term outlook for euro policy unchanged

• FPC statement due - over the coming years, the FPC may prove more activist than the MPC

 

New Fed uncertainty to reverberate ...This week’s FOMC decision to eschew tapering and continue the $85bn/month pace of QE was a surprise. The ensuing press conference saw the Fed Chairman soften the Fed ’s commitment to its forward guidance. As such, the current pace of economic expansion has grown in importance. The coming week sees US releases that should help shape future tapering expectations. European attention will focus on the German Election, although market reaction should be limited. Domestically, the FPC statement will be the focus.

 

Economic data to shape taper debate?... The Fed’s decision not to taper QE was likely driven by a number of factors, including the sharp rise in market rates. However, an apparent softening in economic momentum recently is also likely to have played a role. The coming week sees several economic releases which will be interesting, particularly in light of this week’s surge in the Philadelphia Fed survey and existing home sales. Specifically, durable goods orders look set to rebound after July’s drop; Q2 GDP looks likely to be revised higher to 2.7%; and pending and new home sales releases are also due. The Fed’s latest statement reduced confidence in its forward guidance and suggested a more dovish bias.

There is now a good chance that tapering does not occur until 2014. However, Bernanke suggested no preset course and stronger data could yet see a decision to taper in December.

 

Shutdown ? ... US political uncertainty is returning to the fore. Two key fiscal debates loom with agreement on a Budget required over the next two weeks to avoid a shutdown of the Federal government. With Democrats and Republicans still fiercely opposed, a compromise appears a long way off. While agreement should prevail, the risk of prolonged political deadlock is high. This augurs poorly for the debt ceiling debate to follow, with current estimates suggesting the Federal government will run out of money towards the end of October/early November. Previous episodes of deadlock on fiscal matters have had a significant impact on market, consumer and small business sentiment. This may have added to the Fed’s recent caution.

 

Little market reaction to German election? ...

Away from the immediate economic outlook, the euro area will focus on the results of the German Election on Sunday. While several scenarios are possible, the key uncertainty is whether the FDP will achieve the 5% threshold necessary to enter Parliament (latest polls suggest they will). In all likelihood this will determine the shape of the next coalition, although Merkel will probably remain Chancellor under either outcome. This will have wider ramifications for Germany, but market reaction may be governed by the implications for the European debate. We do not expect a marked shift in German policy towards Europe. Accordingly, the performance of the AfD - anti-euro - party may be the most interesting, not just for coalition arithmetic, but in gauging popular resistance to Germany assuming a greater role in solving the euro areas problems.

 

FPC, not MPC, the focus for policy activity ... MPC members Bean and Tucker speak over the coming week. Recent comments from Miles and Weale have done little to question markets’ more elevated interest rate expectations. However, given the MPC’s forward guidance commitments, the FPC may become the more active policy body over the next two years. Wednesday’s statement (from this week’s meeting) will be interesting. While the MPC dismissed current concerns about the housing market, we expect it to have been a key topic of discussion for the FPC and one that will merit close ongoing surveillance.

 

 

DIsclaimer

 

This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.

 

 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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