Monday September 23, 2013 - 03:34:59 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Sep-2013 -0332 GMT
Dow (15451.09, -1.19%) is down. We see a support at the current levels. If this support holds we may see it rising to 15800.
Dax (8675.73, -0.21%) is trading near the resistance at 8800. It has been falling for the last two days. We may see a further fall to 8400 if the resistance holds.
Asia-Pac is mixed. Nikkei (14742.42, -0.16%) is consolidating between 14500-14900. We may see it go up to 15200 in the coming weeks. Shanghai (2206.03, +0.65%) is up after a two day holiday as the Chinese manufacturing index came out higher than expected. We may see the prices going up to 2250 before coming off from the resistance there.
Nifty (6012.10, -1.70%) closed lower on Friday. Unsure as of now as to where it will move now. It may come down to 5950-5900 before moving up again to 6100-6200.
Metals declined as China PMI exceeded estimates.
Gold (1320.10) declined sharply as investors weighed the FED news and heard that a small taper may occur next month. The resistance at 1375 is holding well for now. We may see a fall to 1300 before it starts with a fresh rise. Silver (21.49) has also fallen sharply breaking support at 22.5. It may dip further towards near term support at 20 from where it can bounce back to 22.
Copper (3.2705) has dipped but is likely to consolidate for now. Charts show resistance at 3.39.
Brent (109.15) has risen a bit. It is likely to consolidate for sometime now before rising towards mid term resistance near 113. Nymex WTI (104.75) dropped sharply as Russia moved to block any United Nations threat against Syria.
Euro (1.3521) is stable for now but had moved up high against the dollar after Angela Merkel won the German elections. It is likely to move towards 1.36. Dollar Index (80.405) is stable for now and is likely to trade below 81 for sometime.
Pound (1.60198) has remained stable but faces resistance near 1.605 from where it may dip to 1.59. It might also not get further yield advantage from here.
Aussie Dollar (0.9417) rose as China Manufacturing data exceeded estimates boosting prospects for commodity exports. It is stable for now and has support at current levels.
Dollar Rupee (62.23) had closed higher after the RBI Meeting on Friday. We may expect it to trade at 63-63.5 given the market volatility. Other R-currencies look weak against the Dollar and are correcting upwards after their recent strength on Fed news.
The taper is not dead. Some people expect some tapering in the 30-Oct FOMC. Some other expect it to be postponed till December. The US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and GDP data this week will be closely dissected by the market for clues about growth. The just released China HSBC Flash PMI (51.2) should help lift the mood a bit.
The US 10-Yr (2.74%) has topped out for now and can target 2.60-2.50% in next few weeks. The Curve is steepening with the 5-Yr (1.49%) falling more and the 30-Yr (3.76%) falling less. Take a look at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usddiff.shtml#sindiff
With US yields falling, the Dollar is losing its yield advantage against the Euro and Yen. But, the UK-US 10-Yr Spread (0.0% now) might find Resistance now, producing Resistance for GBPUSD as well.
In India, banks are expecting further Repo rate hikes after Friday's RBI Meeting. SBI has already raised deposit and lending rates. The Indian 10-Yr (8.58%) had shot up on Friday, from 8.25% on Thursday. Expect a volatile range of 8.25-75% for the coming weeks. If so, the Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (5.84%) might move up a bit towards 6.0-6.1%.
No major data release today.
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 7.50% ...Previous 7.25 %
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 6.50% ...Previous 6.25 %
...Actual 4.00% ...Previous 4.00 %
CA Inflation Y/Y
...Actual 1.10% ...Previous 1.30 %
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