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Monday September 23, 2013 - 15:50:42 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Europe, US Indices at Their Lows on Weak PMI Data US Market Update: Europe, US Indices at Their Lows on Weak PMI Data
Mon, 23 Sep 2013 11:14 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Central Bank Cuts Base Rate by 25 bps to 1.00%, unexpected
- (US) Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: +0.14 v -0.15 prior
- (US) Sept Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.8 v 54.0e prior
- (MX) Mexico July Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.3% v -1.9% prior

- European indices were pivoting around the unchanged level early in the overnight session until some weak PMI data sent the continent firmly into the red. US indices are also under pressure this morning, with the S&P500 at its lows. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.51%, the S&P500 is down 0.59% and the Nasdaq is down 0.73%.

- The September Markit PMI index retreated to 52.8 this month from 53.1 in August, with a slowdown seen in the key new orders and employment components. The early look at September manufacturing supports the Fed's assertion about weakening economic performance.

- The euro has softened a little bit in the wake of the German election results, however it is still sustaining most of the gains seen in the wake of the Fed's surprise taper hold. EUR/USD hit highs of around 1.3540 overnight, to decline to 1.3494 as of writing. Merkel has her third term as chancellor, but talks with the SPD and possibly the Greens are being set up to build a new coalition. The consensus view is that there will be very little change in German policy stemming from the election, although it is notable that the SPD is said to be asking for the finance ministry portfolio as the price of supporting Merkel.

- Dovish New York Fed governor Dudley explained his vote against the taper this morning. Dudley emphasized that he believes labor market improvements have been overstated and said there has been no meaningful increase in the pace of the recovery. Additionally Dudley said what many believed, namely that fiscal uncertainty is impacting the schedule for exiting QE.

- Crude continues to float lower, and front-month WTI is now firmly established in the $104 handle, to the detriment of E&P names. Syria continues to comply with the US/Russian plan, while Iranian officials are making more positive noises ahead of key meetings between Iran and western diplomats, including a possible chat between Rohani and President Obama, at the UN General Assembly.

- Shares of Apple are up 5% or so, off their earlier highs and still below $500/shr. The company disclosed that first weekend iPhone 5S/5C sales topped 9M devices, ahead of industry expectations of 5.5-6M. More than 200M iOS devices are now running the updated iOS 7, which Apple called the "fastest software upgrade in history." Apple also guided its Q4 revenue and gross margin "at high end of prior guidance" of R$34-37B, gross margin 36-37%.

- The FT has published another article warning that a major bank has seen material declines in its fixed income business that will impact quarterly earnings. On Friday it was Deutsche Bank while this morning it was Citigroup, which reportedly saw a sharper-than-expected summer slowdown in markets businesses. Shares of global banks are in the red this morning, broadly weighing on equity indices. Shares of Citi are down 3%.

- Potash names are broadly lower on a negative report out of Agrium. The fertilizer firm warned that soft nutrient prices and lower sales volumes across the business would negatively affect Q3 results. Wholesale nitrogen and phosphate volumes were down 20-30% y/y and potash would be 30% lower than normal. The company doubled its dividend in response to the bad news, and shares of AGU are down 2.5%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 Fed's George Kahn speaks to Society of Business Economists in London
- 13:30 Fed's Richard Fisher speaks before the Independent Bankers Association of Texas
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Trade Balance: No est v $770M prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Trade Balance: No est v $717.8M prior; Total Imports CIF: No est v $4.3B prior
- (AR) Argentina Sept Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 50.03 prior




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