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Tuesday September 24, 2013 - 10:38:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: EUR/USD continues to trade near 1.35, amid mixed German IFO data and Fed uncertainty EU Market Update: EUR/USD continues to trade near 1.35, amid mixed German IFO data and Fed uncertainty
Tue, 24 Sep 2013 5:26 AM EST

-Mixed German IFO data
-Emerging market weakness continues amid Fed uncertainty
-Overall, markets continue to trade cautiously

***Economic Data***
- (FI) FINLAND AUG PPI M/M: 0.3% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.9% V 0.0% PRIOR
- (UK) AUG BBA LOANS FOR HOUSE PURCHASE: 38.2K V 39.0KE (highest since Dec 2009)

Fixed Income:
-(ID) Indonesia sells IDR12T in 2-Year, 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 30-year bonds
-(NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sells 2.35B v 2.0-3.0B indicated in 2016 bonds; Avg Yield: 0.435% v 0.495% prior
-(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total 3.58B v 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month bills
- Sells 2.81B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.291% v 0.155% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.85x v 4.1x prior; Max Yield: 0.318% v 0.199%; Tail: 2.7bps v 3.7bps prior
- Sells 768M in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.980% v 1.089% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.64x v 1.95x prior; Max Yield: 1.004% v 1.120%; Tail: 2.4bps v 3.1bps prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.40%, FTSE 100 flat at 6,560, DAX +0.10% at 8,645, CAC-40 +0.40% at 4,187, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 9,103, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 17,962, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,692]

Market Focal Points: M&A in the European telecom sector continues, Weaker commodity prices continue to weigh on miners

By Sector
Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT +1.5% (agreement with Telefonica)]
Energy [Total FP.FR +1.5% (broker commentary)]
Financials [Close Brothers CBG.UK +1.5% (FY profits rose y/y); Deutsche Wohnen DWNI.DE -2% (share placement)]
Consumer Discretionary [Euromoney ERM. +4% (issued guidance); Cupid -7% (gross margins declined y/y), Premier Foods PFD.UK -7% (named new CFO)]
Consumer Staples [Suedzucker SZU.DE -5% (H1 profits declined y/y)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +1%, Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Technology +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.40%, Energy +0.20%, Telecom +0.10%; Industrials flat, Financials -0.10%, Basic Materials -0.10%]

-ECB's Nowotny: Reiterates that it is not yet in situation to think about exit from measures and that monetary policy reversal to come when economy is back on track as Too early exit may create emerging market liquidity risk. He also said Low bank demand for LTRO may reflect less ECB reliance and that ECB guidance is not a deviation from existing policy.
-IFO Economists: Manufacturers expect better exports, but they should not overestimate the small drop in IFO business conditions. Overall, the outlook is very positive, the new German govt can count on an economic tailwind.
-Ireland Fin Min Noonan: There is a little flexibility around 3.1B adjustment in next month's budget.
-Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci: Turkey plans to issue medium term outlook soon. The depreciation of TRY (Lira) should be treated as a normal development, and should not worry the private sector. The Lira is over depreciation level, may fall to 1.80 next year is capital inflows increase.
-Unnamed EU Leader: Greece is already getting major further official aid and thus will never have another haircut. Privatizations are a significant disappointment.
-Venezuela Oil Min Ramirez: Venezuela producing 3M bpd.
-Iraq's Deputy PM Shahristani: Iraq producing 3.3M bpd not including Kurdish areas
-South Korea Financial Services Commission (FSC) Chairman Shin: to ease rules to bolster asset management business
-Sweden Riksbank Jansson: Reiterates conditions for a rate hike will not be in place in H1 2014. He said the rate path can tolerate some upward revision of economic outlook and that rising housing prices and a pick -up in borrowing is worrying and that further measures on household debt are necessary.
-EU Parliament's Liese: Parliament unlikely to back weakened ICAO carbon deal

Political/In the Papers:
(KR) S&P affirms South Korea sovereign rating at A+; Outlook Stable
(KR) China stops some exports in North Korea to meet sanctions
(ES) Spain Aug foreign tourists: 8.3M, +7.1% y/y (record)
(DE) Bundesbank's Lautenschlaeger: Sustained low interest rates over a long period can weaken bank earnings, is a worrying prospect
(DE) CDU's Kauder: SPD should not delay coalition talks
(DE) German CSU's Seehofer rejects a possible coalition with Green Party. CSU wants a agreement with sister party CDU on highway toll before negotiations begin.
(DE) Lower Saxony PM Weil (SPD): SPD may be open to future coalition with the Left party, Left party not fit to rule at the federal level at this time.
(DE) German Bundestag Pres Lammert: First sitting of the lower house seen on Oct 22nd
(GR) Troika is pressuring Greece privatization fund (TAIPED) to speed up asset sales - press
(GR) Troika is doubtful of Greece projections for a primary surplus in 2013 and 2014. Troika sees a very small primary deficit in 2013 and is very skeptical of the planned 1.5% surplus in 2014. Greece Fin Ministry will not be able to pay off 8B in arrears this year
(EU) S&P Kraemer: There is much public and private deleveraging still ahead in Europe

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY gained later in the Asian session to 99.07 and 133.90 though failed to break into new levels with little follow through on the move. Movement was mostly tempered by EU and US central bank comments and the lack of clarity on US Fed policy with a new unknown chief to be named. EUR/USD gained heading into IFO but fell over 50 pips after the actual German September IFO figure came out, testing to 1.3492, it later tested and had a small break through that bottom again nearly an hour later.

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Deposit Tender to sterilize prior bonds purchases under SMP program
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut the Base Rate by 10bps to 3.70%
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Retail Sales M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: No est v 0.8% prior
-08:45EDT/12:45GMT UK MPC Member Tucker Speaks
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Business Confidence: No est v -8.6 prior
- 09:00 (US) July S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: No est v 0.89% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.07% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 159.54 prior
- 09:00 (US) July House Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on Payment Systems in Chicago
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Current Account Balance: No est v -$9.0B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): No est v $5.2B prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing: No est v 14.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 81.5 prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 42-Year Notes
-13:00EDT/17:00GMT UK MPC Member Bean Speaks
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories




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