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Wednesday September 25, 2013 - 10:24:52 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European markets continue to seek fresh catalysts, amid light economic calendar

 

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European markets continue to seek fresh catalysts, amid light economic calendar
Wed, 25 Sep 2013 5:28 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Economic data from Sweden and Norway data miss analyst expectations
-French bonds underperform into 2014 budget announcement
-German government continues talks related to formation of coalition
-Japanese JPY firms amid weakness in the European and emerging equity markets; NZD/JPY underperforms
-GBP/USD continues to trade near 1.60, while EUR/USD remains near 1.3500

***Select Economic Data***
- (ES) SPAIN AUG PPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.9% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.1% V +1.2% PRIOR
- (FR) FRANCE SEPT BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 97 V 99E
- (DE) GERMANY OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 7.1 V 7.0E

- (IT) ITALY SEPT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 101.1 V 98.5E

Fixed Income:
(IN) India sells total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sells INR70B vs. INR70B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 9.6947%
- Sells INR50B vs. INR50B indicated in 6-month Bills: Yield: 9.4720% v 10.2003% prior
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells 3.25B v 3.25B indicated in CTZs and BTPEI bonds
- Sells 2.5B v 2.0-2.5B indicated in % Jun 2015 CTZ; Avg yield 1.623% v 1.871% prior; Bid-to-cover 1.77x v 1.46x prior
- Sells 750M v 500-750M indicated in 2.1% Sept 2021 BTPei bonds; Yield 2.62% v 2.79% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77x v 1.76x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.60%, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,563, DAX -0.20% at 8,649, CAC-40 -0.10% at 4,190, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 9,148, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 18,017, SMI +0.10% at 8,051, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,690]

Market Focal points: Slight rebound in gold prices support precious metals miners, trading remains cautious as emerging market equities continue to weaken

By Sector
Consumer Discretionary [Laura Ashley ALY.UK -10% (H1 profits declined y/y), Punch Taverns PUB.UK -4% (FY profits declined y/y), Tesco TSCO.UK -2% (broker commentary)]
Basic Resources/Materials [ London Mining LOND.UK +12 % (update on Marampa mine), ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE +4.5% (Cevian raised stake), Wacker Chemie WCH.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
Financials [SocGen GLE.FR -1% (broker commentary); Swissquote SQN.CH +10% (announced acquisition)]
Eurostoxx50 movers [Financials -0.9%, Basic Materials -0.80%, Consumer Cyclical -0.70%, Consumer Non-Cyclical-0.70% Utilities -0.40%, Industrials -0.40%, Technology -0.20%, Energy -0.20%, Telecom -0.10%]

Speakers:
Hungary Econ Min Varga: 2014 GDP will reach 2% and we will also see tax revenue rise that will keep the budget shortfall below the 3% of GDP limit.
Germany Greens Party Head Goering-Eckardt: Coalition with Merkel would lack credibility
Cyprus Fin Min Georgiandes: Cyprus is not planning any additional tax increases. The 2014 budget will focus on spending cuts. He sees a decision on state asset sales soon.
UK Debt Chief Stheeman: Gilt market is deep and liquid; Gilt supply is still at very elevated levels. FTT (Tobin) tax could increase borrowing costs for the UK and dramatically widen bid/offer spreads.
BoE Financial Policy Committee (FPC): Made no new policy recommendations at Sep 18th meeting. Modest long term rate rise not a threat to banks
ECB's Hansson (Estonia): ECB can keep rates low during a moderate recovery. He warns against excessive confidence in early recovery.

Political/In the Papers:
(EU) EU banking resolution plan (SRM) could be limited to the largest banks which are systemically-important (SIFIs), about 130 banks could be impacted and not 6,000.
(PT) Portugal's largest banks have about 5.2B in real estate acquired through foreclosures that they must, by law, sell within two years
(ES) Increased tax collection due to the rise in VAT (VAT Rev +8.4% y/y) kept Spain's Aug YTD deficit at 4.62% of GDP, on track to meet the 6.5% target for the year
(CH) Swiss govt: CHF (Franc) level is bearable for economy. Comments are in response to Social Democrats motion on CHF strength. They fully back the 1.20 EUR/CHF cap.
Basel Committee: Banks had $759.4B liquidity short-fall at end-2012. Large banks need 115B in total to reach core capital target of 7% (The estimate is based on bank capital levels as of the end of 2012, shortfall is 83B less than mid-2012)
(RU) World bank cuts Russia 2013 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 3.6% Jan forecast
(DE) German Fin Min Schaueble: Doesn't rule out tax hike. However, says he is personally against tax hikes.
(PL) Poland Foreign Min Sikorski: Wants Germany to agree to common Euro Bonds, would create a true political union

***Forex***
The euro was pretty steady in the session around $1.3475, falling from a high of $1.35 hit on the 24th. German consumer confidence, came in at a 6- year high which helped the euro but dealers will be looking for a break below the $1.3450 level as a trigger for further weakness. The yen gained against the USD in the session testing 98.39. New Zealand dollar was significantly down, testing as low as 0.8220 after a trade balance came in at the largest gap in 4-years. Many analysts have revised their outlooks to count in a 75bps rate cut over the next 12-months as a result. Focus will now turn to US data including durable goods orders and new home sales, with continued eagle eye on signs that could indicate a start in QE tapering.

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (UK) Sept CBI Industrial Reported Sales: No est v 27 prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Consumer Confidence: No est v 1 prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 20th: No est v % prior
- 08:30 (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: No est v -7.3% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: No est v 0.6% prior; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: No est v -3.3% prior; Capital Non-defense Ex Aircraft: No est v -1.5%; Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -6.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug New Home Sales: No est v 394K prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes
- 12:00 (FR) France Aug Net Change Jobseekers: No est v +6.3K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.286M prior

 

 

 

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