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Thursday September 26, 2013 - 03:35:30 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 26-Sep-2013 -0333 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Stocks fell in the US as concern grew that Washington wonít reach a budget deal. Time in hand is till 17-Oct. Dow (15273.26, -61.33) can target 15100 over this week or the next. There could even be a danger of seeing 15000 on the downside. The Nasdaq (3671.10, -7.16) is consolidating for now with chances of a fall to 3700.

Dax (8665.63, +1.03) fluctuated as investors consider the composition of a new government after Angela Merkelís election victory. It testing support at 8600 can move up to 8800 if support holds.

Chinaís stocks fell as companies linked to the Shanghai free-trade zone tumbled. The dip in the Shanghai (2176.03,-22.49) below is 2200 worrying. Support at 2150 needs to hold to maintain long-term bullishness. Else, a break below 2150 could be very bearish in the coming weeks. The Nikkei (14495.27, -125.26) touched a low of 14410.52 conforming the chances of a fall to 14400 and even lower.

Nifty (5873.85, -18.60) closed lower yesterday. It remains Overbought and can target 5700 if it breaks below 5800.


COMMODITIES
Gold (1331.40, -0.36%) has dipped a bit. A further rise may be uncertain as the strong resistance at 1375 still holds. Silver (21.79) rose on concern over the US government shutdown. Charts show resistance near 22.5.

Copper (3.2650) rose as US New Home Sales data rebounded, but beware a long term resistance is coming up near 3.32.

Even though Nymex WTI (102.31, -0.35) is testing crucial supports and has chances of rising to 108-109, it fell after a government report showed U.S. inventories unexpectedly rose last week as demand slipped. Brent (108.07, -0.25) is moving sideways targeting the support at 107 which if holds can help it to rise to 111-112.


CURRENCIES
Currencies have dipped on concern over US budget shutdown.

Euro (1.3514, -0.09%) has dipped after a sharp rise to 1.3536 yesterday. We expect a fall to 1.34 on the downside. Dollar Index (80.455) remains ranged.

Pound (1.6072, -0.065) has dipped after registering an intra-day high of 1.6087 yesterday. It is losing its yield advantage against the USD and could be berish going forward. Dollar-Yen (98.78, +0.36%) trades a bit high, having bounced from a low of 98.27 today, with 98 being a medium-term sideways range bottom. Immediate Resistance at 99.20 could be vulnerable to a break targeting 100 on the upside.

Aussie (0.9356, -0.13%) has been declining this week as the risk of a potential US shutdown has cut demand rate for high yielding assets. It had broken support at 0.94 yesterday and could test 0.93 on the downside before rising again.

R-Currencies are all weak except. The Rupee (62.4450) strengthened a bit yesterday but is well ranged in the 63-62 levels. It may test 62-61.9 and then bounce back towards 63.


INTEREST RATES
The US 10-Yr (2.63%) is close to our initial target of 2.60%. Next target below that would be 2.50%. US Durable Goods and New Home Sales data were good yesterday. So, maybe yields may stabilise a bit now. Note that 2.57% is the 38.2% retracement of the rise in yields from 1.63 (May-13) to 3.01 (Sep-13).

The UK-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.06%) has dropped sharply from a high of +0.19% seen on 19-Sep, a day after the FOMC announcement. Could this lead the Pound (1.6060) lower later on? The US-Japan 10-Yr Spread (1.96%) could dip another 5-10 bp alongwith the dip in US yields. The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.16%) has come down in the last few days, but may find Support near -0.20%, just a little lower from current levels.

Indian 10-Yr (8.88%) remains high and the Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (6.22%) can rise towards 6.25-30%.


DATA TODAY
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK GDP
...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 0.79 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 2.70 % ...Previous 2.50 %

 

DATA YESTERDAY

US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual 0.12 %...Previous -8.07 %

US New Home Sales
...Actual 421 K ...Previous 390 K

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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John M. Bland, MBA
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