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Thursday September 26, 2013 - 10:09:02 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Banking and political concerns in Italy weigh on markets

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Banking and political concerns in Italy weigh on markets
Thu, 26 Sep 2013 5:28 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Europe fails to benefit from equity gains seen in Tokyo
-JPY weakness on renewed corporate tax cut speculation; NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY rebound
-Italy markets underperform amid ongoing political concerns;
-Bank of Spain reiterates that Q3 GDP is expected to improve
-Euro-zone bank lending continues to contract, amid ECB concerns about the transmission of monetary policy
-UK Q2 household consumption, business investment revised lower; Gilt yields hit lowest level since late Aug

***Economic Data of Note***
- (EU) EURO ZONE AUG M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E; M3 3-MONTH AVERAGE: 2.3% V 2.3%E
- (UK) Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.5%E
- (UK) Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -13.0B V -11.0BE

- (TW) TAIWAN CENTRAL BANK LEAVES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.875%

Fixed Income:
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells 8.5B v 8.5B indicated in Mar 2014 bills; avg yield: 0.781%; bid-to-cover 1.45


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.30%, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,545, DAX -0.30% at 8641, CAC-40 -0.40% at 4,177, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 9,186, FTSE MIB -2% at 17,738, SMI -0.30% at 8,031, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,688 ]

Market Focal Points: H&M's earnings beat ests, Italian equities and banks underperform as debt spreads widen , Alcatel-Lucent benefits from M&A speculation

By Sector
Financials [Mapfre MAP.ES -2% (share placement), Raiffeisen RBI.AT -1.5% (broker commentary)]
Industrials [DSM DSM.NL -4.5% (cautious outlook), Jenoptik JEN.DE (broker commentary)]
Telecom [Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR +6.5% (M&A speculation)]
Consumer Discretionary [Ladbrokes LAD.UK -8% (warned on outlook), Thomas Cook TCG.UK -7% (reaffirmed outlook), Colruyt COLR.BE -3.5% (cautious outlook), Aggreko AGK.UK -1% (broker commentary); H&M HMB.SE +6% (Q3 profits above ests), Tui Travel TT.UK +1% (raised outlook)]
Consumer Staples [Compass Group CPG.UK +1% (reaffirmed outlook)]
Basic Materials [African Minerals AMI.UK +45% (strategic investment agreement)]
EuroStoxx50 sectors [Energy -0.60%, Technology -0.50%, Basic Materials -0.40%, Financials -0.30%, Consumer Cyclical -0.40%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.20%, ;Telecom +0.40%, Industrials +0.30%, Utilities +0.10%]

Speakers:
IMF Sr Official Rodlauer: More confident in IMF's 7.8% growth forecast for China in 2013.
Avg growth for China of about 6% is sufficient going forward.
IMF: Eurozone should set up a joint budget to help avoid economic shocks and to prevent weak members from experiencing severe recessions. Budget could be 2.5% of Eurozone GDP or about 200B. Such a fund would collect revenues from euro area members at all times and make transfers to countries when they experience negative shocks.
Fed's Lacker (hawkish, non-voter): The Fed will face risks as it pursues its exit strategy from recent unconventional policies. Forward guidance on low rates could reduce economic activity by reducing expectations of future growth. He Sees only minor impact of govt funding issue on GDP. Lacker said it would be difficult to start taper in Oct without losing face (but its could be done in principle based on data), but don't see any reason why the taper can't start in Dec.
Sweden Riksbank Jochnick: US economy is on the right track; reiterates Sweden's economy is on road to recovery
Hungary Central Bank: Inflation to remain well below target until 2015, sees room for further moderate easing. 2013 and 2014 budget deficit to remain below EU limit.
Bank of Indonesia: To raise reserve ratio to 3%, effective Oct and to raise the ratio to 4% from Dec
German CDU Caucus leader Grosse-Broemer: No need for tax increases
ECB's Asmussen: Investors have confidence in EU crisis management. Everybody can trust in ECB keeping price stable. US must re-order their fiscal policy in the long term and not just raise their debt ceiling every few months. He said it would be good to have a Eurozone budget to support reforms.
Italy President Napolitano: Cancels attendance at event due to disturbing political developments

Political/In the Papers:
(PT) Portugal Debt Agency Chief Rato: Portugal can regularly issue bonds starting in 2014
(ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Spain 2012 budget deficit revised to 6.8% from 7.0% prev. No more budget cuts will be approved in 2013
(ES) Spain govt confirms it will freeze salaries for civil servants in 2014 for 5th year in a row that will apply to 2.6M employees at national, regional and local levels
(DE) German CDU leader Barthle: Would like lower taxes for mid and low income earners
(JP) Japan pension advisory panel: advises Japan govt to re-examine their bond holdings. Japan GPIF and other public funds should alter current emphasis on JGBs in their portfolio allocations

***Forex***
- Talk of possible corporate tax reform in Japan drove the yen weaker to 99.11. In general the USD was weaker against the other majors due to continued uncertainty over the US budget and possible government shutdown. EUR/USD had a range of 1.3526-1.3499. The sterling was down 0.25% to 1.6036, after Q2 current account and, GDP and total business investment came in lower than expected.

**Looking Ahead***
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 0.05%
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior; Personal Consumption: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Price Index: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: No est v K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v M prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Pending Home Sales M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.6% prior
- 11:00 (US) Sept Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v 8 prior
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Houghton, MI
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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