Friday September 27, 2013 - 03:52:30 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 27-Sep-2013 -0350 GMT
U.S. stocks rose, halting the longest slump this year and the European stocks were unchanged, as an unexpected drop in jobless claims overshadowed concern that a budget wrangling in Washington will lead to a government shutdown. Dow (15328.30, +55.04) has moved past 15300. We can see it rising to 15400-15500 if it does not fall from here. Nasdaq (3787.83, +26.33) has also moved past our target of 3700. It could rise further to test resistance at 3825.
Dax (8664.10, -1.53) is stable near yesterday’s level. Support at 8600 is crucial.
Asian stocks climbed, led by Japanese shares, amid speculation the nation’s government will study a corporate tax cut and advise public pension funds to hold more risky assets. Nikkei (14806.19, +7.07) has moved up sharply negating the risk of a fall to 14000. Shanghai (2159.62, +3.81) is testing resistance at 2160-2165. It can target 2125 if the resistance holds.
Nifty (5882.25, +8.40) has closed marginally higher today. It can target 5950 to test the resistance there
Gold (1324.80) Silver (21.6750) are ranged and are likely to remain so for sometime now. Resistance for Silver at 22 still holds.
Copper (3.3095) rose yesterday before the US GDP that came out at 2.5% but a resistance is coming up at 3.32 which if holds may push it back to 3.2.
Nymex WTI (102.75) rose before US GDP yesterday but has fallen now as stockpiles dropped in the US. There is support at current levels. Brent (109.11) is up and can target 111 while about 109.
Currencies are globally weak.
Euro (1.3480) has declined against the Dollar as the Euro peripherals see some corrections in the external imbalances. It could test 1.33 on the downside. The Euro continues to move within the wide range of 1.33-1.35. Dollar Index (80.541) has risen a bit but overall remains stable.
Pound (1.60407) had fallen against the Dollar yesterday after UK GDP came out less than earlier estimates. Its likely to remain ranged near 1.59 in the coming weeks. Dollar Yen (98.74) has fallen on speculation that the Japan government would cut corporate rates. Yen’s appreciation is likely to be modest. There is support near current levels which might take the pair back to 99.
Aussie (0.93394) has been falling against the dollar this week. Australia seems to be in danger as its current account deficits remain sizeable on top of the net international investment position which is already very weak. We may expect it to rise afresh from 0.93.
R- Currencies are all weak for now except the Ringitt (3.2110) which has strengthened a bit possibly in anticipation of a $776 mln 30-Yr sovereign bond issue. The Rupee strengthened yesterday closing at 62.06 in line with expectation. Crucial support at 62-61.85 region from where it may rise back.
The US 10-Yr (2.66%) has stabalised a bit near yesterday’s levels as there was a drop in the jobless claims. The UK-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.09%), the US-Japan 10-Yr Spread (1.97%) have stabalised along with the US 10-Yr.
The UK10-Yr (2.57%) dipped after the GDP news which showed annual economic growth was less than earlier estimated. The German -US 2-Yr Spread (-0.15%) has dipped, can rise with an upcoming support near -0.20%.
0:01 GMT or 5:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -10 ...Previous -13
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN BoP
...Previous - 781 $ Bln
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 99.00 ...Previous 98.10
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.10 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.14 %
...Actual 0.69 % ...Previous 0.79 %
...Actual 2.50 % ...Previous 2.50 %
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