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Friday September 27, 2013 - 18:56:23 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US FISCAL DEADLINES LOOM

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS Friday 27 September 2013

 

US FISCAL DEADLINES LOOM

 

• US Budget discussions go to the wire, raising prospect of partial government shutdown

• Japan set to unveil further stimulus to offset consumption tax increase

• Global PMIs and US employment report due; UK PMIs forecast to soften a little

 

US Budget discussions go to the wire... It is an important week for economic data, especially with  US payrolls, but politics, not economics, could well dominate market sentiment. In the US, discussions over the Federal Budget look set to go to the wire. The US Senate is scheduled to vote on a Budget deal later today but, given the entrenched divisions, it is far from clear an agreement will/can be reached. If not, a partial US government shutdown could ensue from next Tuesday when the new fiscal year starts. While evidence from past episodes of shutdown suggest that the financial markets may underplay the lack of a Budget deal - for now - investors are likely to be far less forgiving over the impending deadline for the US debt ceiling. With the US government reportedly set to run out of money around 17 October, lack of progress on the debt ceiling discussions has the potential to significantly unnerve bond markets.

 

Italian political uncertainty back to the fore.. It is not only in the US where political tensions are rising. In the euro area, the Italian coalition could collapse after Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia threatened to quit parliament if a Senate committee vote to expel its leader from the upper house next month. The spectre of renewed political instability has raised fears of another downgrade of Italy’s sovereign debt. The markets will be watching how political developments unfold over the coming week, particularly given the potential contagion to other peripheral markets.

 

Abe seeks to cushion the blow... In Japan, PM Abe is due to unveil another stimulus plan on 1 October, at the same time as he delivers his long awaited decision on whether to raise the consumption tax next year. According to media reports, the PM is considering a pump-priming package totalling as much as Y5trn to cushion a mooted rise in the sales tax from 5% to 8% next April (rising to 10% in October 2015)

 

US tapering remains data dependent... Alongside US political developments, the coming week’s ISM and payroll data will also be watched closely, as markets continue to weigh up the prospects for Fed ‘tapering’. It is unclear whether the FOMC’s decision not to ‘taper’ at its last meeting represents a temporary postponement in response to the fiscal uncertainty, or a more fundamental reassessment in the light of recent softer economic data. The tone of the upcoming ISMs and payroll reports will help influence this debate. We expect the September ISMs to be little changed after the strong increases in recent months. Conversely, the relatively weak payroll outturns in July and August provide scope for an upside surprise. Recent jobless claims figures suggest the pace of job-shedding may have slowed over the past month. The market is looking for payrolls to rise by 178k. We expect a stronger gain of 189k (with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 7.3%).

 

ECB watched for LTRO announcement... In the euro area, the ECB meets amid ongoing signs of gradual economic improvement. While no change in policy is expected, President Draghi has indicated that the ECB stands ready to provide further liquidity to help ease the upcoming maturity of LTROs. We do not expect a formal announcement on LTROIII yet, but Draghi could well address this issue in the post-meeting press conference.

 

UK PMIs forecast to soften slightly... The main focus in the UK will be on the PMIs. After a recent string of very strong increases, we look for both the manufacturing and services PMI to soften a little in September. The latest money data, including consumer credit, mortgage approvals and M4, are also released. The September BBA report points to upside risks for all three - particularly mortgage approvals.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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