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Sunday September 29, 2013 - 19:21:07 GMT
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PMI data due in the front half of the week Jobs at the end
|PMI data due in the front half of the week Jobs at the end|
30 September 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: CN- HSBC PMI JP- Mfg PMI, Unemployment, Retail Sales, Industrial Output Europe: DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP. North America: US- Chicago PMI.
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI JP- Mfg PMI, Retail Sales, Industrial Output, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP
- The next few weeks in the U.S. will focus on the U.S. government budget and the debt ceiling impasse. The Republicans are ready to run the bus off the cliff while the Democrats and the President refuse to do anything to reform out of control government spending. As usual.they will run the clock out until the last minute and then finally come to an agreement. Its all a charade.
- The Fed is still employing its Tower of Babble policy with Fed officials continuing to muddy the waters with one continuously contradicting the other. With policy data dependent, the major focus this week will be the employment report on Friday. We feel it is unlikely the Fed would react to a single employment report this Friday no matter what the outcome.
- The week ahead will be especially heavy on the data front. The early part of the week will see a slew of final PMI reports for September, plus the quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey. The markets watch the PMI reports closely even though they are not as good predictors of key economies as some might hope. Wednesday through Friday will see a number of U.S. employment reports. Street estimates currently are for a lackluster 180K increase in U.S. jobs in the month.
- Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
||JGB 0.69% -1bp
||Asia Close Mixed|
||Bund 1.78% -5bp
||U.S. 2.61% -4 bp
||North America: Lower|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Tue 31 July 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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