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Monday September 30, 2013 - 05:38:23 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: Shanghai enters holiday week on a positive note after launch of free trade zone; US braces for looming govt shutdown***Observations/Insights*** - Source TradeThe

- Political standoff in Washington enters its decisive 24 hours; House of Reps approve Republican measure to delay implementation of Obamacare by one year; Legislation - already not expected to get through the White House - assures stalemate with the Senate, bringing the govt to the brink of its first shutdown in 17 years; US equity futures, USD sharply lower as investors brace for market impact. - Italy also in political crisis after Berlusconi's PDL party ministers resign from coalition govt in protest of continued tax reform; PM Letta to seek a confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday in hopes that some of the PDL lawmakers break from party ranks and support the coalition. - Japan industrial production, retail sales disappoint ahead of the crucial PM Abe decision on consumption tax increase later this week; Govt still awaiting quarterly Tankan data from the BOJ tomorrow. - Australia inflation data still soft while RBA warns banks not to raise dividends too quickly; RBA decision tomorrow may see the bank reintroduce an easing bias to knock down AUD. - Shanghai Composite notably outperforms after launching Free Trade Zone going into the holiday week; HSBC Final manufacturing PMI disappoints, tempering expectation for a steady H2 recovery. ***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA SEPT FINAL HSBC/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.2 V 51.2E - (CN) China Aug Leading Index M/M: 99.9 v 99.9 prior - (JP) JAPAN AUG PRELIM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.7% V -0.3%E (1st decline in two months); Y/Y: -0.2% V +0.5%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.5 V 52.2 PRIOR (highest reading since Feb 2011) - (JP) JAPAN AUG RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.0%E; RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.9% v 1.0%E; LARGE RETAILERS SALES: -0.1% V 1.2%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.2% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1% PRIOR (matches a 5-month low) - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.5%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.8% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 2.1%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE Y/Y: 0.3 V 0.3 PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA OCT BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 82 V 77 PRIOR; BUSINESS SURVEY NON-MANUFACTURING: 72 V 70 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 1.4% V 2.5%E (first rise in 3 months) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 WESTPAC EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: 102.8 V 104.2 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 6.5% V 5.2% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 54.1 V 48.1 PRIOR (highest reading since Mar 1999); ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 45.3 V 43.3 PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE AUG MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 15.7% V 14.7% PRIOR; M2: 7.1% V 7.4% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE AUG BANK LOANS AND ADVANCES: 15.4% V 17.6% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE AUG CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS: 19.2M V 21.3M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.42B V 3.54B PRIOR - (UK) UK SEPT HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY M/M: 0.5% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.4% V 1.8% PRIOR ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) China MOF to sell CNY21.6B in 3-yr and CNY22.1B in 5-yr local govt debt - press - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 3.6 tonnes to 906.0 tonnes (lowest since Feb 2009) - update as of 9/27 - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 300B in 1-3 yr JGB, 350B in 3-5 yr JGB and 200B in JGB with over 10-yr maturity - EUR/USD fell about 40pips at the open below 1.3480 amid Italian political standoff; USD/JPY down about 50pips below 97.70 on anticipated flight into safehaven US treasuries as US govt shutdown draws closer; AUD/USD hits session low 0.9280 after disappointing China PMI data - down as much as 40pips from Friday close. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: Hard to implement planned hike to 10% in Oct 2015 if initial 8% hike in April causes downturn - Japanese press - (JP) According to a survey, Japan public is said to be evenly split in support of the planned sales tax hike in Apr 2014 - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: doesn't see major effect on Japan economy from US budget issue - (JP) Japan govt expects no electric power shortages this winter - Kyodo News - (CN) Shanghai Free Trade Zone launches official website and unveils more rules - financial press >- (CN) 8 Chinese banks, 2 foreign banks, and 1 financial leasing firm are approved to set up branch in Shanghai Free Trade Zone; China Pacific Insurance is approved for FTA business - Chinese press - (CN) China Ministry of Finance to offer 50% refund in VAT as part of tax breaks to manufacturers of solar products - Xinhua - (CN) China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) revised approval rules for foreign banks - financial press - (CN) China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) denies on CNY30B investment to support milk companies - Chinese press - (CN) China approves $47.5B QFII v $46.4B m/m, $88.3B QDII v $87.6B m/m and CNY134.3B RQFII v CNY127.8B m/m as of Sept 27th - Chinese press - (US) Moody's: US govt shutdown wouldn't affect debt service; US will probably increase debt limit and avoid a govt shutdown. - (IR) Iran Dep Foreign Min Araqchi: Iran is willing to discuss limits in the level to which it enriches uranium but will never suspend the process altogether - financial press ***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.7%, S&P/ASX -1.2%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -1.3%, Dec S&P500 -0.7% at 1,674, Dec gold +0.1% at $1,340, Nov crude oil -1.2% at $101.58/brl US markets: - AMGN: Phase III data comparing Vectibix (Panitumumab) to Erbitux (Cetuximab) met primary endpoint - SI: To cut 15K jobs worldwide per cost-cutting program - BA: 787 Dreamliner operated by Poland's LOT Airline makes unexpected landing in Iceland due to faulty air identification system Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Kikkoman Corp 2801.JP -2.9% (cut to neutral from overweight) - Industrials: Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd 117930.KR -8.1% (may post unexpected op loss); Chiyoda Corp 6366.JP +3.3% (to build production base for hydrogen used in autos) - Materials: Lynas Corp LYC.AU -3.7% (provides weak production update); OZ Minerals OZL.AU +3.1% (denied earlier speculation of Glencore takeover) - Technology: Rakuten Inc 4755.JP +1.3% (to release website in Singapore); BestTV New Media Co Ltd 600637.CN +9.5% (JV with Microsoft approved in Shanghai FTA); Asahi Glass Co 5201.JP -1.0% (cut European production); DataDot Technology Ltd DDT.AU -15.4% (announces share placement); Beijing Ultrapower Software Co Ltd 300002.CN +8.5% (to invest in online gaming firm partnered with Tencent) - Energy: Power Assets Holdings 6.HK +3.2% (announces spin off of assets) - Financials: K Wah International Holdings Ltd 173.HK flat (Plans residential construction near Shanghai FTA); Hong Yuan Securities Co Ltd 000562.CN -7.9% (investigation of execs); Mizuho Financial Group Inc 8411.JP -3.2% (to review loan approval process); Bohai Leasing Co Ltd 000415.CN +10.0% (acquires marine container business) - Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP +1.5% (may report profit in current year; expects improved finances) - Source


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