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Monday September 30, 2013 - 10:04:56 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Equity markets decline amid political concerns related to the US and Italy

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Equity markets decline amid political concerns related to the US and Italy
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 5:24 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Italy/Germany 10-yr yield spread hits widest level since late June
-European equities volatility rises ahead of key event risks for the week (PMI data, monthly US jobs report, Japan Tankan Survey and Sales tax announcement, ECB decision, Italy confidence vote)

***Economic Data of Note***
- (DE) GERMANY AUG RETAIL SALES M/M: +0.5% V +0.8%E; Y/Y: +0.3% V +0.6%E
- (FR) FRANCE AUG PPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.4% V +0.3% PRIOR
- (DK) DENMARK Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.5% PRELIM; Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.4% PRELIM
- (NO) NORWAY AUG RETAIL SALES W/AUTO FUEL M/M: 0.2% V -1.3% PRIOR
- (IT) ITALY AUG PPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: -2.3% V -1.0% PRIOR
- (UK) AUG NET CONSUMER CREDIT: 0.6B V 0.6B PRIOR; NET LENDING: 1.0B V 0.7B PRIOR
- (UK) AUG MORTGAGE APPROVALS: 62.2K V 61.4KE (highest since Feb 2008)
- IT) ITALY SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI EU HARMONIZED M/M: 1.8% V 0.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.2% PRIOR
- (IT) ITALY SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI NIC INCL. TOBACCO M/M: -0.3% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.2% PRIOR
- (EU) EURO ZONE SEPT CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.3% PRIOR; CPI CORE Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1% PRIOR

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [Stoxx50 -1%, FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,468, DAX -0.70% at 8,604, CAC-40 -0.90% at 4,150, IBEX-35 -0.90% at 9,141, FTSE MIB -1.6% at 17,370, SMI -0.60% at 8,004, S&P 500 Futures -0.70% at 1,676]

Market Focal Points: Italian banks underperform on political concerns, Miners declines amid weaker than expected China PMI

By Sector
Financials [Italian banks have underperformed on political concerns (Intesa UCG.IT -4%, UniCredit UCG.IT -3.5%)]

Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT +3% (speculation CEO m ay resign)]
Technology [Dialog Semi DLG.DE -3% (broker commentary)]
Basic Resources/Materials [New World Resources NWR.UK +6% (asset sale)]
Stoxx50 Sectors [Financials -1.5%, Industrials -1.4%, Utilities -1.3%, Energy -1.2%, Consumer Cyclical -1.1%, Basic Materials -1%, Telecom -0.9% Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%; Technology flat]

Speakers:
India Fin Min Chidambaram: need to boost second wave of financial reform
ECB's Couere: Increased costs of bail-in liabilities will have a limited impact on bank lending

Political/In the Papers:
(AT) Austria's two-party centrist pro-Euro ruling coalition barely squeaks by in elections over the weekend with 51% of the vote
(PT) Ruling Social Democrat party wins only 17% (v 24% prior) of vote in municipal elections over the weekend
(CN) Foreign banks are hesitant about the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, only 2 global banks are set to begin operations
(ES) Fitch raises Spain 2013 GDP forecast to -1.4% from -1.6% prev
(IN) 20% (INR2.5T) of restructured loans in the Indian banking system are in default
(GR) Troika said to prefer that Greece return to bond markets in 2015
(JP) Japan Govt official: Size of economic stimulus package to be 6.0T
(DE) Merkel's CDU/CDS party to hold preliminary talks with SPD on Fri Oct 4th

***Forex***
EUR 1.3501, change -0.0021; GBP 1.6151, change +0.0001; CHF 0.9048, change -0.00040; JPY 97.84, change -0.400; AUD 0.9325, change +0.00082

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.3% prior
06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.3% prior
- 06:30 (IN) India Aug Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 77.8B prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (IN) India Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v -$ prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Sept Inflation Expectations: 0.9%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Q2 Current Account: No est v 1.5B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Manufacturing Index Y/Y: No est v 4.7% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 10.3% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Total Copper Production: No est v 480.4K tons
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -57.7B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Trade Balance (ZAR): No est v -14.2B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July GDP M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Industrial Product Price M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: No est v 4.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Sept ISM Milwaukee: No est v 48.21 prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -21.1B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 2.3B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 34.1% prior
- 09:45 (US) Sept Chicago Purchasing Manager: No est v 53.0 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Net Outstanding Loans (MXP): No est v 2.386T prior
- 10:30 (US) Sept Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v 5 prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Aug National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.9% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.0% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.5% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Aug YTD Budget Balance (MXP): No est v -123.70B prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Aug Jobless Rate: No est v 3.8% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: No est v 4 prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50% prior (on Tuesday)

 

 

 

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