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Monday September 30, 2013 - 20:20:34 GMT
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Busy Tuesday ahead. Gov't shut down looms
|Busy Tuesday ahead. Gov't shut down looms|
1 October 2013 10:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: CN- Holiday, JP- Tankan, AU- Trade, RBA Europe: DE- Unemploy, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemploy North America: US- Mfg PMIs, Construction Spending, API
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Tankan, AU- RBA, DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment, US- Mfg PMIs
- The immediate focus in the U.S. is on the budget impasse. The expiring budget runs out at the end of the day Monday. A temporary government shutdown is likely if no agreement is reached. Despite much hand-wringing, this whole process is charade with both sides only playing for political advantage.
- The first week of the month is usually an active one for central bank meetings. The Reserve Bank of Australia decision is due early on Tuesday. No rate change is expected. The European Central Bank decision will be announced on Wednesday from Paris and the latest BOJ decision is due on Friday.
- PMI data from both Japan and China (HSBC) were both weaker than expected. German retail sales data,after revisions were better than expected for August.
- The week ahead will be especially heavy on the data front. The early part of the week will see a slew of final PMI reports for September, plus the quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey. The markets watch the PMI reports closely even though they are not as good predictors of key economies as some might hope. Wednesday through Friday will see a number of U.S. employment reports. Street estimates currently are for a lackluster 180K increase in U.S. jobs in the month.
- Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
||JGB 0.69% 0bp
||Asia Close Lower|
||Bund 1.78% 0bp
||U.S. 2.62% 0 bp
||North America: Lower|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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