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Tuesday October 1, 2013 - 09:55:55 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: US Govt shutdown sparks rumor of potential early release of Non-farm payroll data EU Market Update: US Govt shutdown sparks rumor of potential early release of Non-farm payroll data
Tue, 01 Oct 2013 5:26 AM EST

- US Govt begins partial shutdown after lawmakers failed to bridge the divide; first such shutdown in 17 years; Concerns that global markets will turn much more turn risk-off as a result
- JapanQ3 Tankan tops estimates while Jobless rate climbs to 6-month high; PM Abe confirmed plan to raise sales tax to 8% next April
- China September official manufacturing PMI disappoints (51.1 vs.51.6e) but still reaches 17-month high
- RBA leaves Cash Target Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected; Aussy Aug retail sales better than expected and housing prices reach record highs
- European Manufacturing PMI data mostly comers in a touch below market expectations
- German Unemployment Change comes in worse than expected and registers its 2nd straight monthly rise; Unemployment Rate at 6.9% vs. 6.8%e
- Italy Unemployment Rate hits record high at 12.2%
- Euro Zone Aug Unemployment Rate comes in better at 12.0% vs. 12.1%e

***Economic Data***
- (AU) RBA leaves Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50% prior; as expected

- (JP) Japan Sept Vehicle Sales Y/Y: +12.4% v -6.4% prior; first rise in five months
- (IN) India Sept HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 48.5 prior; second straight month of contraction
- (RU) Russia Sept Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 v 49.4 prior; third straight month of contraction
- (SE) Sweden Sept PMI Manufacturing: 56.0 v 52.1e
- (NO) Norway Sept Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 51.6e
- (HU) Hungary Sept Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 v 51.7 prior
- (PL) Poland Sept Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 52.3e
- (TR) Turkey Sept Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 v 50.9 prior
- (EU) ECB 689M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 120.0M prior; 66.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 52.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 v 51.2e; second straight month of growth
- (CH) Swiss Sept PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 54.9e
- (IT) Italy Sept PMI Manufacturing: 50.8 v 51.1e; third straight month of growth
- (FR) France Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.8 v 49.5e; confirms 19th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.1 v 51.3e; confirms 3rd straight month of growth
- (DE) Germany Sept Unemployment Change: +25K v -5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.8%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.1 v 51.1e;

- (GR) Greece Sept PMI Manufacturing: 47.5 v 48.7 prior; 48th straight month of contraction
- (IT) Italy Aug Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.2% v 12.1%e; fresh record high
- (UK) Sept PMI Manufacturing: 56.7 v 57.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted 94.5B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 97.0B prior

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,452, DAX +0.6% at 8,645, CAC-40 +0.70% at 4,173, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 9,255, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 17,599, SMI +0.20% at 8,035, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,682]

Market Focal Points; FTSE 100 underperforms on Unilever, Slight rebound for Italian banks, Mixed European PMI data

By Sector
- Telecom
[Telecom Italia TIT.IT +3% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Experian EXPN.UK +1.5% (acquisition)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Wolseley WOS.UK +2% (confirmed special dividend); Partouche PARP.FR -6% (debt restructuring) Unilever ULVR.UK -3% (cautious outlook), Sopra Group SOP.FR -3.5% (share placement), Henkel HEN3.DE -1% (tracking declines in Unilever)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Nyrstar NYR.BE +2% (marketing agreement)]
- Industrials [Duerr DUE.DE +2% (raised outlook)]
- EuroStoxx50 sectors [Industrials +0.9%, Basic Materials +0.8%, Utilities +0.4%, Telecom +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Technology +0.2%, Financials +0.2%; Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.3%]

- Japan PM Abe issued a statement that confirmed the govt would raise the sales tax from 5% to 8% in the next fiscal year (April 2014). A govt official also confirmed that it would compile stimulus package of approx 5.0T to offset impact from sales tax increase

- BoE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) report noted that stress test was designed to ensure financial stability and that banks might have to hold capital above Basel minimums. Banks to be tested in 2014 included Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Co-op, Nationwide, Santander, Standard Chartered, RBS with results to be published at end-2014
- BoE Tucker: Stress test would improve BoE accountability to Parliament and create debate about supervision objectives
- Spain Labor Min: could tap the pension reserve fund for 6.1B

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was weaker after the US Govt was forced to begin a partial shutdown after lawmakers failed to bridge the divide as the clock stuck midnight. Overall sentiment was that USD was just too flawed to hold water at this time but off its worst levels ahead of the NY morning.
Dealers were also pondering the effects of the partial US govt shutdown on pending economic data releases. One rumor circulating was that the Friday release of Non-Farm Payroll might be moved forward to as soon as Tuesday (today)
- USD/CHF tested below the 0.90 level for first time since Feb 2012 while the EUR/USD hit a eight-month high at 1.3580. The USD Index dipped below the 80 handle for 8-month low.
- Dealers noted in the EUR/USD pair of large option expirations today in the 1.3570-1.3590 area with more buying of strike above that level.
- The USD/JPY pair drifted below 97.70 just ahead of the NY morning. Japan govt to 'urgently consider' cutting corporate tax rate while PM Abe stated he would seriously consider the move
- RBA toned down the language calling for a weaker AUD in its post rate decision cvommentsd
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor upward by 5 kopecks to 32.30-39.30 in dollar/euro basket

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) According to Markit data, the overall value of short positions on European equities declined to $144B (lowest level since 2006) - FT
- (IT) Italy PM Letta to address Parliament on Wed Oct 2nd at 16:00 local time (10:00ET), may not ask for a confidence vote on Oct 2nd - press
- (IT) As many as 20 PDL Senators may form a breakaway party unless Berlusconi softens his stance against the Letta govt - press
- (ES) Troika Members comment on Spain program; bank restructuring is underway, economy is bottoming out
- (US) White House: The world's financial markets would not take seriously any unilateral attempt by the President to increase the debt ceiling; Congress must raise the debt ceiling
- (US) S&P: Debt ceiling debate not likely to change sovereign rating; The debt ceiling issue should not lead to a change in the sovereign rating, as long as it is short-lived.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CZ) Czech Sept Budget Balance: No est v -36.2B prior
- (RU) Russia Sept Reserve Fund: No est v $85.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.8B prior
- (RO) Romania Sept International Reserves: No est v $35.7B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Sept Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Sept Budget Balance: No est v -9.2B prior
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell combined 1.4B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (UK) BOE's Woods
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to 2.0B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank chief Matolcsy on regulator merger
- 08:15 (EU) EU's Van Rompuy in Belgium
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 08:58 (US) Sept Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 53.0e v 52.8 prelim
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.4 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 09:45 (UK) BOE to purchase 640M in 2028-68 Gilts
- 10:00 (US) Aug Construction Spending M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: 55.0e v 55.7 prior; Prices Paid: 55.0e v 54.0 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Total Remittances: No est v $1.8B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (UK) BOE's Dales
- 10:30 (UK) BOE announces size of upcoming 0.125% I/L 2019 Gilt
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 4-week bills
- 11:55 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep. Gov Macklem speech
- 12:00 (EU) EU Commission Rehn in Paris
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -6.6% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Sept IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.2 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.8 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Monthly Trade Balance: No est v $1.2B prior; Total Exports: No est v $21.4B prior; Total Imports: No est v $20.2B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Sept Total Vehicle Sales: No est v 16.02M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: No est v 12.44M prior
- 17:30 (GR) Greece PM Samaras
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Trade Balance: No est v -A$765M prior
- (US) Fed's Yellen speaks at Economic Club of New York




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