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Tuesday October 1, 2013 - 15:30:34 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Markets Calm Following Government Shutdown US Market Update: Markets Calm Following Government Shutdown
Tue, 01 Oct 2013 11:17 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Sept 27th: w/w +0.2%; Y/Y: +2.1%
- (RU) Russia Q2 Final GDP Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2% prelim
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Sept 27th +3.8% y/y, Sept MTD: -0.4% m/m; Sept YTD: +3.9% y/y
- (US) Sept Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.8 v 53.0e
- (BR) Brazil Sept PMI Manufacturing: 49.9 v 49.4 prior
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 212.1B v 212.0B prior
- (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: 56.2 v 55.0e; Prices Paid: 56.5 v 55.0e

- In a rare twist of irony, the Italian government is looking more functional than the US government this morning, as PdL members more and more lean toward supporting the Letta government while here in the United States simple cooperation for the public good seem to be impossible. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.43%, the S&P500 is up 0.71% and the Nasdaq is up 0.86%.

- For the first time in 17 years, much of the federal government is shut down as Congress failed to agree on new funding before a midnight deadline. House Republicans continue to insist on changing, delaying or defunding Obamacare while Senate Democrats and President Obama continue to reject that position. There is no potential resolution in sight at this point, and additionally the debt ceiling is creeping closer, threatening further fiscal chaos. Fitch said that the US debt ceiling is not itself a downgrade trigger, but a formal ratings review with potentially negative implications would be triggered if the government does not raise debt ceiling in a timely manner.

- In Italy, a faction within the conservative PdL party is apparently breaking with Berlusconi and looking to support Letta's government in a confidence vote. Yesterday as many as 20 PdL Senators said they may form a breakaway party, a number that may be up to 40 this morning, although other PdL figures have been urging the party to remain cohesive.

- Between 7:00 and 8:30ET, precious metals tumbled sharply in a pronounced sell-off. Spot Gold dropped to -2.6% on the session to $1,293 while spot silver fell to $20.90/oz, -3.4% on the session. Traders cited 'thin liquidity' conditions for the move, as well as a big set of stops lined up below $1291 for the move in gold. Separately, in a report Fitch asserted that a rebound in gold would be unlikely and further declines likely given the QE unwind and prospect for steady (but unspectacular) US growth. Shares of the gold miners are down 4-5% a piece.

- Ford and Chrysler reported surprising gains in US September sales. Ford sales rose 5.7% to 184K and Chrysler deliveries rose 0.7% to 143K, while General Motors sales declined 11%. A Ford sales executive said overall Q3 industry sales rate hit its best level since 2007. Toyota sales were down 4.3% and Nissan's dropped 5.5%. Note that deliveries for the first two days of September, including the Labor Day holiday, were counted in August figures.

- Shares of Walgreen are up nearly 5% this morning on relatively strong Q4 results, including good comps. Apple is up 2% after Carl Icahn said he had a productive meeting with CEO Cook yesterday. Icahn said he pushed hard for a $150B buyback and both sides agreed to continue in the coming weeks.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 4-week bills
- 11:55 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep. Gov Macklem speech
- 12:00 (EU) EU Commission Rehn in Paris
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -6.6% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Sept IMEF Manufacturing Index: 50.1e v 49.2 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 49.5e v 49.8 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Monthly Trade Balance: $2.0Be v $1.2B prior; Total Exports: $21.0Be v $21.4B prior; Total Imports: $18.9Be v $20.2B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Sept Total Vehicle Sales: 15.60Me v 16.02M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.10Me v 12.44M prior
- 17:30 (GR) Greece PM Samaras
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Trade Balance: -A$400M v -A$765M prior
- (US) Fed's Yellen speaks at Economic Club of New York




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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.

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