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Wednesday October 2, 2013 - 15:38:12 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Government Shutdown Enters Day Two US Market Update: US Government Shutdown Enters Day Two
Wed, 02 Oct 2013 11:07 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) leaves Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- (IE) Ireland Sept Live Register Monthly Change: -1.8K v -3.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: 13.3% v 13.4% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 27th: -0.4% v +5.5% prior
- (EU) ECB leaves Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected
- (BR) Brazil Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.6%e
- (US) Sept ADP Employment Change: +166K v +180Ke
- (SG) Singapore Sept Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5 v 50.7e; Electronics Sector Index: 50.3 v 51.2e
- (US) Sept ISM New York: 53.6 v 60.5 prior
- (US) DOE Crude: +5.47M v +2Me; Gasoline: +3.5M v -0.5Me; Distillate: -1.7M v -0.5Me; Utilization: 89% v 89.3%

- Global equity markets have nearly all traded lower since the shutdown began, and as of writing there is no end in sight to the budget battle. The DJIA is down 0.72%, the S&P500 is down 0.73% and the Nasdaq is down 0.42%.

- The September ADP jobs data missed expectations and August's gains were revised lower to 159K from 176K. The ADP report gains added significance this week as the shutdown may likely prevent the release of September Labor Department reports, including the NFP, previously scheduled for this Friday. Note that in the wake of the weak data, the yield on the 10-year UST fell back below 2.6%.

- There were no surprises at the ECB rate decision. However the euro caught a bid and EUR/USD moved out to eight-month highs above 1.3600 after Draghi appeared less dovish as expected at the post-decision press conference. Draghi reiterated that the euro exchange rate was not a policy target and repeated several times that the ECB had a wide variety of available tools to support liquidity, including another LTRO.
Dollar weakness was reinforced by the disappointing ADP data.

- Italian PM Letta won a Senate confidence vote with a crushing majority after Berlusconi abandoned his bid to topple the government in a stunning turnabout. The vote was 235 in favor of the government and 70 against, far higher than the majority required of 153 senators. This result follow Berlusconi's move to abandon his plan to withdraw the PdL's support for the government.

- The House will try to pass piecemeal spending bills to reopen slices of the federal government as the shutdown enters its second day. Note that Democrats would like to use a procedural maneuver - called a motion to recommit - to force a vote on a clean CR funding bill. If given the opportunity to bring that bill up, just 16 GOP members would have to join with 200 Democrats to pass the bill. Traders watching the carnage say that in a sign of jitters ahead of the debt ceiling fight, the one-to-five year CDS curve has inverted for the first time since July 2011.

- Gold is retaking a good chunk of the losses seen in yesterday's session. Spot gold rose from the $1,290 level seen overnight to $1,320 as of writing, up 2.6% or so. With the shutdown and now the disappointing ADP data, many guess there's no way the Fed can launch the taper this year, supporting gold.

- Shares of Monsanto were down as much as 3% as of the first minutes of cash trading this morning after reporting a larger-than-expected quarterly loss in its Q4. The firm's FY14 outlook was also well below par thanks to dilution related to the acquisition of Climate Corporation, which was also announced this morning. Global Payments topped expectations in its Q1 report and added to its share buyback program, sending shares of GPN up 11%.

- Among other movers, Pandora is up nearly 5% after disclosing solid September operating metrics, which were enhanced by the firm's decision to lift mobile usage cap. Rare-earths name Molycorp is up 9.3% after offering a positive update on its Mountain Pass project.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.4% prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow data
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Rosengren (FOMC voter) in Vermont
- 15:20 (US) Fed's Bullard (dovish, FOMC voter) in St Louis
- 15:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Community Banks in St. Louis
- 21:00 (CH) China Sept Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.9 prior




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