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Thursday October 3, 2013 - 10:21:36 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Major European PMI Services come in mixed but stay constructive in tone EU Market Update: Major European PMI Services come in mixed but stay constructive in tone
Thu, 03 Oct 2013 5:15 AM EST

- No major breakthrough after meeting between Obama, top Democrats and Republicans; President Obama stated that he would enter negotiations once govt had reopened
- China Sept official Non-Manufacturing PMIi hits 6 month high (55.4 v 53.9 prior)
- Moody's raises Philippines sovereign rating to investment rate; lowers Brazil outlook to negative and warns that Italy's political instability is credit negative
- Major European PMI Services come in mixed but overall constructive
- Italy PMI Services moved back into growth after 28 readings in contraction territory (52.7 v 49.1e)
- Spain PMI Services slipped back into contraction territory ((26 times of the last 27 months)
- Germany PMI Services revised slightly lower but stays in growth territory for the 5th straight month)
- Spain 3-part bond auction saw little trouble getting done. Sold just above the indicated range at lower yields
- France 2-part bond auction also solid

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Sept Services PMI: 51.5 v 53.7e prior; second straight month of expansion
- (IE) Ireland Sept Investec Services PMI: 56.8 v 61.6 prior; 14th straight month of expansion
- (SE) Sweden Sept PMI Services: 53.3 v 53.7 prior
- (UK) Sept Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; 3M/Y: 6.2% v 6.4%e
- (TR) Turkey Sept CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 7.8%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 7.0 v 6.4% prior
- (EU) ECB 145.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 25M prior; 55.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 52.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain Sept Services PMI: 49.0 v 50.9e; moves back into contraction territory (26 times of the last 27 months)
- (IT) Italy Sept PMI Services: 52.7 v 49.1e; first growth in 28 months
- (FR) France Sept Final PMI Services: 51.0 v 50.7e; confirms 1st growth 13 months
- (DE) Germany Sept Final PMI Services: 53.7 v 54.4e; Confirms 5th straight month of growth
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Final PMI Services: 52.2v 52.1e (Confirms 2nd straight month of growth); PMI Composite: 52.2 v 52.1e

- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Sep Food Price Index: 199.1 v 201.8 prior
- (UK) Sept PMI Services: 60.3 v 60.5e
- (HK) Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 8.1% v 10.1%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 7.2% v 9.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -1.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.515B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2018 and 2023 bond
- Sold 955M in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 2.795% v 3.001% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.66x v 1.94x prior; Maximum Yield 2.823% v 3.032% prior; Tail: 2.8bps v 3.1bps prior
- Sold 1.378B in 3.75% Oct 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.128% v 3.477% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.05x v 2.62x prior; Maximum Yield 3.161% v 3.504% prior; Tail: 3.3bps v 2.7bps prior
- Sold 1.176B in 4.40% Oct 2023 bond; Avg Yield: 4.269% v 4.503% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1..96x v 1.98x prior; Max Yield: 4.290% v 4.526% prior; Tail: 2.1bps v 2.3bps prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.46B vs. 6.5-7.5B indicated range in 2023 and 2029 Oats
- Sold 5.105B in 1.75% May 2023 Oat; Avg Yiel: 2.37% v 2.32% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.88x v 1.70x prior
- Sold 2.355B in 5.5% Apr 2029 OAT; Avg Yield 3.02% v 3.94% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 2.34x prior

Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.20%, FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,451, DAX flat at 8,626, CAC-40 -0.30% at 4,147, IBEX-35 flat at 9,348, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 18,135, SMI +0.20% at 7,978, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,679]

- Market Focal Points: Italy's FTSE MIB continues to outperform amid better than expected services PMI , Overall equity trading is mixed as US gov't shutdown persists and dealers digest recent ECB commentary , Mixed PMI data, Upcoming Fed speakers (Williams, Lockhart, Powell, Fisher), Upcoming US initial jobless claims

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[First Group FGP.UK. +1% (reaffirmed forecast), Tesco TSCO.UK +1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Gerresheimer GXI.DE -2% (broker commentary); Finmeccanica FNC.IT +4.5% (ongoing speculation related to Ansaldo), Thales HO.FR +1.5% (outlook commentary)]
- Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT +0.50% (holds board meeting later today)]
- Energy [BP BP.UK +1% (favorable court ruling)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [K+S SDF.DE +3% (Uralkali reported Q3 production)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Energy -0.60%, Industrials -0.50%, Telecom -0.40%, Consumer Cyclical -0.40%, Basic Materials -0.30%, Financial -0.20%, Utilities -0.10%, Technology flat; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.30%]

- ECB's Noyer
: New actions such as interest rate cuts are not justified
- Moody's: Cyprus banking system outlook remains negative
- Brazil Central Bank gov Tombini: Brazil is making progress on inflation and appears to be under control
- India's Finance Ministry may have to make at least INR200B in spending cuts
- Thailand Fin Min Kittiratt: benchmark rate is too high; appropriate time to call for rate cut but won't ask Central Bank to do so as it is independent entity.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were quiet subdued in the session despite the ongoing US govt shutdown and the looming debt ceiling situation. Dealers noting that overall the market remained optimistic that a deal would be ironed out before the middle of October. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.36 area as the major European PMI Services data was mixed in their readings but maintaining momentum in the growth territory.

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB Pres Draghi has asked panel to look at options for boosting bank liquidity; ECB panel has not set a date yet to produce a new liquidity plan - financial press
-(EU) Goldman Sachs Chief Market Economist Wilson said he is confident in the ECB's capacity to react - French Press; Says the ECB is very attentive to problems related to liquidity and reiterates the central bank is likely to offer a new LTRO by the end of 2013; Notes the situation in Italy seems to have improved following recent confidence vote
-(GR) Citi analysts expect approx $2.1B to flow into the Athens stock exchange, ATHEX, after Morgan Stanley (MSCI) reclassifies it as an emerging market - Greek press
- (IT) Moody's: Italy's political instability is credit negative
-(IT) Italy's Berlusconi: Have no intention of resigning from the Senate
- (US) Pres Obama: "Prepared to negotiate anything"; Ready to negotiate once the clean continuing resolution (stopgap spending bill) is passed in the House and the govt reopens
- (US) House Speaker Boehner: Time for the Senate to appoint negotiators; President Obama reiterated he will not negotiate on shutdown, debt ceiling
-(US) Group of moderate Republicans reportedly calling for Speaker Boehner to end the Govt shutdown and to find a way to stop the stalemate
-(US) S&P comments on economic impact of US Govt shutdown; sees GDP lower by 0.3% for each week the Govt is shut
-(US) Fed's Rosengren (dove, FOMC voter): Strongly backed FOMC's decision not to taper QE at the Sept meeting, Fed should only very gradually remove accommodation over several years

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) Chancellor Merkel to mark German unification day
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy in Japan
- (EU) EU's Barroso in EU Parliament
- (EU) EU's Barnier on official visit to Poland
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Sept Sacci Business Confidence: No est v 90.5 prior
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 4.0B in 2.25% 2023 Gilts
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 27th (RUB): No est v $515.9 prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 07:30 (US) Sept Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 50.4K prior; Y/Y: No est v 56.5% prior
- 07:30 (US) Oct RBC Consumer Iutlook: No est v 51.1 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 313Ke v 305K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.80Me v 2.823M prior
- 08:30 (US) USDA weekly Net Export Sales data
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PMI Services: No est v 49.7 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Consumer Confidence: 96.4e v 97.4 prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (US) Congress holds closed door meeting on Syria
- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy 640M in 2021-2027 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 IMF's Lagarde speaks on global economy
- 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 57.0e v 58.6 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France)
- 11:00 (US) Fed's Williams in CA
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement for 3-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $3.0-4.0B in bonds
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart in Atlanta
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Powell speaks on Banking in St. Louis
- 17:30 (US) Fed's Fisher in AR
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Statement




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