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Friday October 4, 2013 - 10:02:34 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Non-Farm Payroll data a casualty of the partial US govt shutdown and its delay helps mute the tone during the session EU Market Update: Non-Farm Payroll data a casualty of the partial US govt shutdown and its delay helps mute the tone during the session
Fri, 04 Oct 2013 5:17 AM EST

- US Sept Non-Farm Payroll data delayed due to US govt shutdown
- BOJ keeps policy settings and economic assessment unchanged, acknowledges improving CAPEX; reiterated to increase its monetary target between 60-70T

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Sept HSBC/Markit Services PMI: 44.6 v 47.6 prior; 3rd straight contraction and lowest reading since Apr 2009
- (DE) Germany Aug PPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.3% v -1.2%e
- (EU) ECB 138.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 145M prior; 57.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 55.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Aug Service Production M/M: +1.5% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.9% v -0.2% prior
- (UK) Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: 12.1% v 10.9% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Foreign Reserves: $412.6B v $409.4B prior
- (UK) Sept Lloyds Employment Confidence: -13 v -22 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.5%e
- (IS) Iceland Sept Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 8.8B v 2.9B prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [EuroStoxx50 +0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,442, DAX +0.1% at 8,605, CAC-40 +0.4% at 4,147, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 9,323, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 18,167, SMI -0.5% at 7,900, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,674]

- Market Focal Points: Most of the major markets opened lower on fears of the continuing US budget standoff, but managed to shrug off losses into the middle of the trading day. Trading into the afternoon should be muted as no important economic data will be released.

By Sector
- Consumer Staples [Tate & Lyle TATE.UK +1.7% (guides Q2 in-line)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Lindt & Spruengli LISP.CH +1.4% (buyback), Carpetright CPR.UK -10.2% (profit-warning)]
- Financials [Piraeus +4.0% and National Bank of Greece +2.0% (to roll bad loans into bad bank)]
- Energy [CGGVertias CGG.FR -0.3% (sees weaker pricing), Petrofac PFC.UK -1.4% (bond issue)]
- Industrials [Nokian NRE1V.FI -7.5% (lowers FY guidance)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [VoestAlpine VOE.AT -4.3% (broker downgrade)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Energy 0.0%, Industrials -0.2%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%, Financial 0.0%, Utilities -0.1%, Technology 0.0%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.1%]

- BOJ gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference
noted that the domestic economy was moving towards price target; current policy easing was enough to achieve the 2% price target. Current BoJ easing was enough to meet BoJ target but would continue to take appropriate action. US debt talks could undermining sentiment and destabilizing markets if prolong. Overseas economies still posed a risk to Japan
- ECB's Costa (Portugal): Sustainable public finances were needed for growth. Thus growth was critical to invert the unsustainable debt path
- Czech Central Bank Sept Minutes noted that some members expressed doubts that Fx intervention was the correct response to the negative demand shock
- S&P affirmed Greece sovereign rating at B-; Outlook stable. Greek economy was rebalancing and has reduced its current account deficit. However Greece debt remained large but noted that Euro Zone was determined to preserve Greek membership in EMU
- (CH) Swiss regulator Finma is probing banks over possible Fx market manipulation
- APEC chief: President Obama absence from upcoming meeting should not impact the TPP schedule

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was mixed in quiet trade during the Friday session. Dealers noted that any possible turn in the direction of budget/debt compromise could turn things in the greenback going into the weekend. The Sept release of Sept Non-Farm Payroll data was a casualty of the partial US govt shutdown and added to the muted tone in the session.

Political/In the Papers:
- ESM chief Regling: Reiterates he believes Greece will need a third bailout package - Handelsblatt interview
- (PT) Portugal Deputy PM Portas: Country passed latest troika bailout evaluation (8th and 9th review), 2014 deficit target to remain at 4% of GDP per troika's demands
- (IE) Fitch affirms Ireland sovereign rating at BBB+; outlook Stable
- (US) House Speaker Boehner Spokesman: Boehner has always insisted that the US will never default on debt, however spending cuts and other reforms are also required to deal with the drivers of the deficit
- (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, non-voter): Very concerned about political consequences from losses on Fed's long-term assets when rates rise
(US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Difficult to gauge US employment conditions at the moment; would not rule out October FOMC as a possible time for a taper decision

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
-06:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -8.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.6% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen in Parliament
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (FI) Finland PM Katainen
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds exploratory discussions with Social Democrats
- 07:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Sept 27th: No est v $277.4B prior
- 08:30 US Sept Non-Farm Payrll data delayed due to govt shutdown
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Fisher in Little Rock, AR on economy
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Leading Indicators M/M: No est v -0.07 prior
- 09:15 (US) Fed's Dudley to give Introductory Remarks at NY Conference
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Stein to speak at Repo Conference in NY
- 09:30 World Bank briefing on 2014 World Development
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Vehicle Production: No est v 340.5K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 329.1K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 64.1K prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Sept Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 53.5e v 51.0 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 45.7 prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lacker
- 13:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in Minnesota
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Sept PPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.8%e v -0.5% prior

***Note: Due to the partial US Govt shutdown the Sept payroll data is delayed
- Delayed 08:30 (US) Sept Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +180Ke v +169K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +182Ke v +152K prior; Change in Manufacturing: +6Ke v +14K prior
- Delayed 08:30 (US) Sept Unemployment Rate: 7.3%e v 7.3% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.7% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v -115K prior
- Delayed 08:30 (US) Sept Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior




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