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Monday October 7, 2013 - 03:38:28 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 07-Oct -2013 -0336 GMT

EQUITIES
US stocks rose as chances grew that the lawmakers would reach a deal to end the Budget impasse. Dow (15072.58, +76.10) moved past 15000. It may still fall to 14900-14750 before rising to 15100 and higher. Nasdaq(3807.75, +33.41) is up. It is consolidating for now between the channel support and resistance i.e. 3750-3850.

Dax (8622.97, +25.06) is up. It is testing resistance at 8640. It has been consolidating 8600-8700 for the last week. The move now is unsure. It can target 8500 on the downside or break resistance and move up to 8800. Nikkei (13900.99, -123.32) has fallen sharply. It can target 13800 and even lower to test support at 13600 while below 14000.

Nifty (5907.30,-2.40) is testing the resistance at 5950. We may see Nifty opening higher today as there has been a bounce in the Dow.

 

 

COMMODITIES
Gold (1313.90, +0.31%) and Silver (21.76, +0.01%) climbed amid talks over debt-limit and concern over US outlook. Both remain ranged sideways and could continue so for some more time.

Copper (3.3020) has bounced from support at 3.298. It is consolidating within a broad range of 3.2-3.35. A rise within this range could be seen in the coming weeks,

Brent (109.10, -0.33%) is consolidating for now and may rise up steadily towards 110.
Nymex WTI (103.29, -0.53%) fell as the Gulf of Mexico production resumed after a Tropical Storm and on concern over expansion of US debt-limit. Resistance near 103.80 may be tested. It could also be ranged sideways for some time.

 

 

CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3572) has risen a bit after falling sharply on Friday. Support at 1.3539 is holding well for now. We may see a rise past 1.36 towards 1.37 in the coming weeks. Dollar Index (80.207) has bounced from just below 200-week MA at 79.84 but is still in an overall near term down trend.

Pound (1.6038) has risen a bit after a sharp fall to 1.6006. It remains in an overall uptrend. A rise towards 1.62 may be targeted. Yen (97.093) strengthened after Treasury Secretary Jacob J Lew called for extending a US debt limit boosting demand for Yen. Dollar yen has been falling since last week and is nearing support at 96.90-96.95 now from where it may again rise towards 99.

Aussie (0.94204) has risen slightly and faces support at current level. If this holds we may see a rise towards 0.95 else a fall towards 0.93 may be expected.

R-Currencies are mixed. The Rand (9.9884) and Rupee (61.44) have strengthened a bit while the Ringgitt (3.182), Real (2.2065) and Ruble (32.165) are weak. Dollar Rupee had bounced from support at 61.22. While below 62, we my expect it to trade in 61.00-61.55 range and if it rises past 62, it may test resistance near 62.60-62.75.

 

 

INTEREST RATES
The US-10-Yr (2.63%) has remained stable. It is still in a downtrend and may test the support near 2.55. The Japan-10-Yr (0.65%) is testing support at the current levels. It may bounce to 0.70% if the support holds. The US-Japan 10-Yr spread (1.99%) has bounced as the Yen appreciated against the Dollar.

The German 10-Yr (1.84%) is up. It can target 1.90%. The German-US-10-Yr spread (-0.79%) has also bounced and may target -0.75%.

 

DATA TODAY
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.30 %


FRIDAY'S DATA
BOJ Meeting
...Actual <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %

US NFP
...Expected 179K ...Previous 169K


US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.3% ...Previous 7.3%

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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US/JP- Holiday
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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