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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet session as US govt shutdown enters its second week

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet session as US govt shutdown enters its second week
Mon, 07 Oct 2013 5:13 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US partial govt shutdown enters its 2nd week; No fresh updates but there was a lot more posturing as Boehner vowed to not bring a clean CR or ceiling votes to the floor until Obama and Reid sat down to negotiate

- US House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Reiterates not enough House votes for clear CR; path we are on is to default - financial press interview
- Taiwan Sept Trade Balance has smaller-than-expected surplus as exports to China, Japan and US slump
- Euro Zone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence misses expectations but registers its 2nd straight reading in positive territory

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Leading Index CI : 106.5 v 106.6e; Coincident Index: 107.6 v 107.6e

- (CZ) Czech Aug Industrial Output Y/Y: +1.6% v -1.3%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -8.1% v +0.2% prior
- (DK) Denmark Aug Industrial Production M/M: -2.3% v -1.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Aug Trade Balance (CZK) 20.6B v 21.1Be
- (CH) Swiss Sept Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 432.4B v 432.5Be
- (SE) Sweden Sept Budget Balance (SEK): +28.3BB v -0.6B prior; largely due to the government selling shares in Nordea
- (DE) German Bundesbank: Sept Target2 claims: 570.4B v 573.6B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Trade Balance: $2.4B v $4.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -7.0% v -1.2%e; Imports Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.9%e
- (NO) Norway Aug Industrial Production M/M: -3.8% v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: -4.4 v +2.8% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 5.7% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence: 6.1 v 8.5e; 2nd straight month of positive reading
- (EU) Euro-Zone Q2 GDP revised lower to -0.6% from -0.5% y/y - EuroStat


Fixed income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
**Equities:
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -1%,
FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,406, DAX -1.2% at 8,517, CAC-40 -1.3% at 4,112, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 9,347, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 18,245, SMI -0.90% at 7,872, S&P 500 Futures -1% at 1,667]

Market Focal Points: European equities hit 1-month low amid continuing US budget stalemate, Cautious Burberry comments weigh on luxury retailers, Lower commodity prices drive miners lower, Second tier Spanish banks start to tap debt markets

By Sector
- Industrials
[Finmeccanica FNC.IT +3% (broker commentary), Solvay SOLB.BE +1% (acquisition), Airbus EAD.FR +0.80% (order from Japan Airlines)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Burberry BRBY.UK -2% (cautious comments about China)]
- Financials [Banca Monte Paschi BMPS.IT +4% (speculation related to restructuring plan)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE +1% (broker commentary), E.ON EOAN.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Fresnillo FRES.UK +2% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology -1.7%, Basic Materials -1.6%,Consumer Cyclical -1.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1.5%, Telecom -1.4%, Industrials -1.3%, Financials -1.3%, Energy -1.1%;Utilities +0.10%]

Speakers:
- Greece Dep Fin Min Staikouras presented 2014 draft budget:
Economy was in phase of stabilization. 2013 GDP seen at -4.0% (in line with press speculation); Unemployment Rate at 27.0%; Primary surplus seen at 340M and fiscal deficit at 2.4% of GDP
- Germany's Chancellor Merkel to hold talks with opposition SPD official Gabriel on Thursday, Oct 10th
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski: Saw high probability of steady interest rates through Q1
- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duch: Did not rule out return to discussion on rate cuts but backs stable rates through mid 2014
- Japan LDP member Noda: Should consider sales tax of over 10% (**Note: On Oct 1st Japan PM Abe formally announced that the govt would raise sales tax to 8% as planned in its next fiscal year and is slated to go up to 10% in 2015)
- China President Xi: China to communicate, negotiate and cooperate with South Korea regarding Peninsula situation
- China Vice Fin Min Zhu reiterated its call for US to ensure safety on its investments in the US (**Note: An estimated two-thirds of its $3.5T of reserves are held in dollar-denominated assets)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was a touch softer in the session as the partial US govt shutdown entered its second week. The Oct 17th deadline to raise the debt ceiling will be a key date in the standoff. Overall the market holding a view that the US situation will find a resolution.
- EUR/USD uptrend remained in the 1.34-1.37 consolidation range with some dealers believing its upside could run out of steam and while a re-test of the 1.3645 and 1.3710 peaks cannot be ruled out in the near term.
- GBP/USD rebounded from last week's late sell-off. Dealers noted that prior gains had been driven by the recent stream of positive economic data surprises. However, even this source of support had diminished as UK data appeared failing to meet heighted market expectations.
- The USD/JPY hit fresh 1-month lows below 96.90 after the Nikkei225 again slumped by 1.2% to close below 14K

Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: To scrap plans for a new corporate tax planned for 2014 that was intended to bring in about 2.5B - financial press
- (DE) German SPD party hints at possible abandonment of tax hike plans - German press interview
- (DE) Germany Environment Minister Altmeier: Greens party coalition with Chancellor Merkel CDU/CSU is now "conceivable" - German press
- (GR) There is speculation that Greece could seek to swap certain bilateral loans for a 50-year government bond - financial press
- (IE) IMF: Ireland will need 5.1B in further fiscal adjustments over the next two years, talks on a precautionary credit line for Ireland to begin later this year
- (UK) UK Conservative Party lawmaker Adam Afriyie to launch a bid to force a parliamentary vote paving the way to an EU referendum in coming weeks - UK press
- (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Reiterates not enough House votes for clear CR; path we are on is to default - financial press interview

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CO) Colombia Sept CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- (IL) Israel Sept Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $78.5B prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (LX) Luxembourg Parliament is dissolved ahead of Oct 20th elections
- (EU) EU, US begin second round of Trans-Atlantic Trade Talks
- 05:30 (EU) German Bundesbank's Ulbrich speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 05:30 (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) speaks in Potsdam
- 05:30 (SE) Sweden Debt office seminar on banking sector
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 9-month Bills
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2018 and 2023 bonds
- 06:45 US) Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON700M in Bills
- 07:15 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug Economic Activity M/M: 0.8%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 5.3% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept Official Reserves: No est v $109.4B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Building Permits M/M: -7.4%e v +20.7% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces allotment in next 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt bond purchases under SMP program
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls bids in next 7-day Main refi Tender
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Sept YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -961.2B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico JSept Vehicle Production: No est v 259.1K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 88.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 226.9K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $65B in 3-Month and 6-month Bills
- 15:00 (US) Aug Consumer Credit: $12.0Be v $10.4B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug Trade Balance: -946.4Be v -880.2B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Sept HSBC/Markit Services PMI: No est v 52.8 prior

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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