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Tuesday October 8, 2013 - 09:11:32 GMT
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Budget impasse to continue until the last minute? U.S. data on hold
|Budget impasse to continue until the last minute? U.S. data on hold|
8 October 2013 10:00 gmt
||JGB 0.66% +1bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.82% +2bp
||U.S. 2.64% +2 bp
CALENDAR: North America: CA- Trade. US- 3-yr Auction, API
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- Trade, Factory Orders, CA- Trade
- The absence of U.S. data due to the budget impasse has trading anf the (Fed?) on hold. Look for the politicians to run the clock out until the last minute or even beyond. Swiiss CPI daya today suggest the high value of the currency is depressing economic activity.
- Budget/debt default debate negotiations are now focused on October 17. If history is aguide, there is a fair amount of leeway in that date. We will see. So far we have the following U.S, data postponed this week: Trade, Wholesale inventories, Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, PPI.
- Top items due in the week ahead include trade figures from Germany, Canada, US (postponed?) and the U.K. plus employment figures from Australia and Canada. A Bank of England policy decision is set for Thursday. On Friday U.S. retail Sales data (postponed?) are due.
- As for Fed "tapering", the partial shutdown of the government has resulted in key economic data not being released, so policy is on hold. Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. It might be that the Her nomination is being held up by the budget impasse. This is a non-partisan job, and she would
be a safe appointment for Obama. Yellen is widely seen as a policy dove.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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