Wednesday October 9, 2013 - 03:41:29 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 09-Oct -2013 -0340 GMT
Dow (14776.53, -159.71) has fallen below our initial target of 14900 it is now nearing our secondary target of 14750. If the support at 14750 does not hold we may see it dip further to test the long term support near 14250 on the weekly. Nasdaq (3694.83, -75.54) has fallen below the support at 3700. We may now see it testing the long term support near 3600 on the weekly.
Dax (8555.89, -35.69) has dipped. A fall past 8500 and we may see it targeting 8400.
Nikkei (13888.01, -6.60) is testing 21-Day MA support at the current levels. There are strong chances of it to bounce back to 14000-14100 in the coming days. Shanghai (2201.95, +3.75) is up marginally. It has bounced from the support at 2175. It can target 2225-2250 while above 2200.
Nifty (5928.40, +22.25) had closed higher yesterday but it could come off today due to the fall in Dow and the reduction of growth outlook by IMF.
Gold (1317.80) has dipped from the resistance near 1325. If it breaks the prices can go up to 1350. Silver (22.32) is consolidating between 22-23 for now. A rise to 23 can be seen.
Copper (3.2865) has dipped as the US shutdown weakened the demand by the world’s second biggest consumer of the metal. It may test support at 3.275.
Nymex WTI (103.52) advanced as U.S. lawmakers took steps toward raising the government’s debt limit and on a forecast that global demand will increase. It is now testing the resistance at 104. We may see it moving past 104 to 105-106 if the resistance breaks. Brent (110) is trading at our target of 110, the support of the 21 day MA may help Brent rise to 112.
Euro (1.35671) is finding difficulty in rising above 1.36 which is a strong resistance on the monthly charts. Also the support near 1.355 is holding well. EURGBP (0.8439) has risen and the Pound (1.60744) is holding gains for now. It has support on the 3-day charts.
Dollar Index (80.102) has bounced from the 200-week MA at 79.85. It may now rise up towards 82 while above 79.85.
Dollar Yen (97.271) is bounced off the 200-day MA Support at 96.78. But, it also faces resistance at current levels. While it holds the pair may find itself falling towards 96.5-96.0.
Aussie (0.94251) trades a bit high before the nomination of the new FED chairman. It is looking bullish for a possible rise towards 0.96, having built Support at 0.96. A break above 0.9480 is needed to confirm.
R-currencies are overall weak. Rupee (61.79) is trading high in the NDF market at 61.95.
The US Yield Curve has moved a little wierdly. The 5Yr (1.41%, +2bp) and 10Yr (3.71%, +2bp) have risen a little more than the 10Yr (2.63%, +1bp). We have to see whether this continues or not. The 2Yr and 5Yr Swap Rate have moved up to 0.4995% and 1.535% respectively.
Regarding the debt ceiling standoff, Obama has said that in case push comes to shove, "the US has obligations to meet other than TBills also". There is, obviously, nervousness out there.
The German Yield Curve is steepening with the 30-10 and 30-5 Yr Spreads steepening. Take a look at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurdiff.shtml#sindiff
The Indian 10-Yr GOI (8.57%) has come off in reaction to the MSF rate cut and the Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (5.95%) has also fallen. But, they have Supports at 8.50% and 5.85% respectively and could move up again. Note that FIIs continue to sell Indian debt.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -8.90 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.85 £ (Bln)
No major data release yesterday.
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