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Wednesday October 9, 2013 - 10:21:10 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK production data disappoints; Obama expected to formally nominate Yellen as next Fed chief later today EU Market Update: UK production data disappoints; Obama expected to formally nominate Yellen as next Fed chief later today
Wed, 09 Oct 2013 5:19 AM EST

- BOJ Minutes: Japan expected to continue moderate recovery
- No meaningful shift in US govt shutdown. US Debt impasse has now extended into the ninth day and this has left a nervous tone across global markets.
- Janet Yellen to be formally nominated to head Fed on Wednesday; helps sentiment to a degree
- India Sept Trade Balance registers its lowest deficit in 2 1/2 years as imports slump
- UK Aug Production data comes in well below analyst expectations (Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v +0.4%e); GBP currency slumps below the 1.60 handle, Gilts futures rise

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -6.3% v -1.7% prior
- (IN) India Sept Trade Balance: -$6.8B v -$10.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 11.5% v 13.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: -18.1% v -0.7% prior
- (DK) Denmark Aug Current Account Balance (DKK): 15,4B v 12.0Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 8.4B v 7.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Sept CPI M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 41.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 66.0M prior; 72.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 65.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: -2.3% v -0.4% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -1.8% v 2.6% prior
- (UK) Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.7%e
- (UK) Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +1.0%e
- (UK) Aug Visible Trade Balance: -9.6B v -8.9Be; Total Trade Balance: --3.3 v -2.1Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -4.4B v -3.7Be

- (GR) Greece Sept CPI Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.1%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.1%e

Fixed income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its order book to sell new 7-year BTP syndicate issue; guidance seen +10bps over 3.75% 2021 BTP
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell Oct 2044 bono bond via syndicate; guidance seen +250bps over mid-swaps

- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.62% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $112.8M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.61% vs. $28m prior

Indices [EuroStoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 -0.20% at 6,353, DAX -0.10% at 8,549, CAC-40 -0.10% at 4,128, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 9,364, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 18,437, SMI -0.50% at 7,786, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,654]

- Market Focal Points: Equities mixed ahead of the release of Fed minutes and lack of progress related to US debt talks, Swiss laboratory equipment firm Tecan warns on outlook on uncertainty related to US gov't shutdown, Greek equities underperform on weakness in banking sector, Goldman positive on UK homebuilding sector following launch of Help to Buy program

By Sector
- Industrials
[Saint Gobain SGO.FR -3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Schibsted SCH.NO -9% (cautious outlook), Brown N Group BWNG.UK -2% (H1 profits declined y/y); Tom Tailor TTI.DE +4% (Q3 SSS +6.2%)]
- Healthcare [Tecan TECN.CH -5% (sales warning)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Avocet Mining AVM.UK -4% (cut production forecast), Vedanta Resources VED.UK -3.5% (copper production declined y/y), K+S SDF.DE -1% (cautious broker commentary)]
- Financials [Abbey Protection ABB.UK -4.5% (take under)]
- Telecom [Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR -5% (gov't concerns related to job cut plan)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Industrials -0.9%, Technology -0.9%, Basic Materials -0.40%; Utilities +1.5%, Telecom +0.6%, Financials +0.5% Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

- ECB's Coeure (France):
ECB must consider long-term policy impact but current context of weak growth the unanimous opinion of the governing council was that rates would remain low for a prolonged period
- ECB's Makuch (Slovakia): Bond spreads signal countries must continue reforms
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Banks were safer after financial crisis but did not rule out future problems
- France PM Ayrault: Reiterated pledge to reverse unemployment trend this year as recovery was underway
- Greece Central Bank gov Provopoulos: Greek banks needed capital for two additional years of recession under the 'adverse' stress test scenario
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus: Noted signs of recovery in the US but headwinds loomed from fiscal policy and tapering. Japan's outlook was uncertain and the risk of a disorderly break-up in Europe was reversing
- China Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua: China hoped the US would ensure the safety of Chinese assets

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was supported in the session aided by concerns of a possible shortage of USD liquidity ahead of next week Oct 17th deadline on the debt ceiling
(prompting a degree of higher level of risk aversion). Financial press noted earlier that Banks in the UK were said to have begun stockpiling cash and avoiding US treasury bills nearing their maturity
- The GBP/USD slumped below the 1.60 level after disappointing UK industrial and manufacturing production data.

Political/In the Papers:
-IMF cut its global growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014; Raised euro area 2013 GDP est to -0.4% from -0.6%
-(EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): It is not the ECB's job to make sure banks remain solvent, liquidity from central banks cannot replace bank capital
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: New Govt formed in Germany unlikely to change European policies, unlikely to move away from EU reform
-(CH) SNB's Jordan: Reiterates SNB will continue to enforce the cap on the Franc, Franc remains highly valued; Notes SNB has not intervened in the CHF for over a year.
- (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) confirms to introduce legislation for clean debt ceiling raise through to 2014
-(US) US House Speaker Boehner: disappointed that Pres Obama and Democrats are unwilling to sit down and negotiate; Pres Obama wants an "unconditional surrender" - press conf
-(US) House Republicans formally introduce the legislation to form a House and Senate working group for deficit reduction and growth linked to debt ceiling raise.
-(US) White House: Pres Obama would veto House-passed bill which would create bipartisan, bicameral panel to work on deficit reduction, debt limit.
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, non-voter): Time has come to expeditiously phase out the QE program; economy is expanding at 2.5% this year, next year should grow at 3%
- (US) Fed's Pianalto (non-voter, moderate): Wanted to reduce QE asset purchases at the September FOMC meeting, labor market improvements were sufficient to taper

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 9.50%
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1% 2018 BOBL

- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 2025 and 2042 bonds
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Aug Industrial Production M/M: +1.0%e v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.4%e v -2.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: No est v -902M prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Aug Leading Indicators: No est v 100.5 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2019 and 2028 bonds
- 06:45 (Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell 2019 and 2028 OFZ Bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland)
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 4th: No est v -0.4% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Sept Trade Balance: -$15Me v -$525.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.4B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.9B prior
- 07:30 (CH) Chile Sept Copper Exports: No est v $3.4B prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Sept IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.9%e v 6.1% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Sept CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Fed's Evans speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington
- 10:00 (UK) Sept NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.9% prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Aug CNU Capacity Utilization: 82.3%e v 82.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow data
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho speaks at Economist Association Conference
- 13:45 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) in Switzerland
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Sept 17-18 FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (US) President Obama expected to formally nominate Janel Yellen as next Fed Chairman

- 18:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi speaks in Cambridge, Massachusetts
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Employment Change: +15.0Ke v -10.8K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior




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