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Wednesday October 9, 2013 - 15:27:18 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Markets Begin to Worry about Washington US Market Update: Markets Begin to Worry about Washington
Wed, 09 Oct 2013 11:12 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: +0.3% v -1.4%e
- (PT) Portugal Aug Trade Balance: -922M v -832M prior
- (EU) OECD Aug Leading Indicators: 100.6 v 100.5 prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 4th: +1.3% v -0.4% prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.9%e
- (MX) Mexico Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3,4% v 3.5%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e
- (UK) Sept NIESR GDP Estimate: % v 0.9% prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug CNU Capacity Utilization: % v 82.3%e
- (US) DOE Crude: +6.8M v +1.5Me; Gasoline: +149K v +0.5Me; Distillate: -3.14M v -1Me

- After a choppy start, US equities are solidly in the red and extending yesterday's steep losses. While talking heads concentrate on the pending nomination of Janet Yellen as Bernanke's successor at the Fed, there are serious concerns emerging regarding the fiscal situation of the United States. As of writing, the DJIA is down 1.30%, the S&P500 is off 0.18% and the Nasdaq is down 0.95%.

- It is clear now that Tuesday's session was the first time that financial markets began to worry about the situation in Washington, DC. Yesterday the S&P500 and DJIA both only declined about 1.0% a piece, while the Nasdaq fell 2% and moved sharply below its 50-day moving average. The US Treasury's $35B four-week bill sale went very poorly, with the rate hitting its highest level since March 2008, almost triple the rate of the last four-week auction, as traders continue to shy away from holding short-term US paper. Meanwhile, losses were pronounced in smaller, less-liquid equities, especially smaller tech and biotech names, hurting the Nasdaq, as traders moved out of risk.

- So far, investors have not been rushing to yank their money from the funds, but there are emerging worries that this could happen if panicky investors look to raise cash. This morning, Fitch stated there was no evidence that default risk aversion was prompting withdrawls and asserted that the money market would bbe able to weather a "short-lived" default. Meanwhile, there were press reports that banks were moving to stock 20-30% more cash than usual in case customers tried to withdraw more funds. In the UK, banks are reported to be holding informal discussions with the BOE about potential disruptions in the US bond market.

- In FX trading, the greenback has been supported by concerns of a possible liquidity shortage ahead of the US Treasury's Oct 17th deadline for the debt ceiling, heightening the tone of risk aversion. The euro weakened, aided by comments from the Bundesbank's Weidman, who countered recent comments from ECB President Draghi by claiming there is no need for another LTRO. EUR/USD has moved lower toward 1.3500 in US trading. USD/JPY hit 96.60 overnight and has moved a bit higher, back into the 97 handle. Spot gold has taken a tumble, dropping below $1,300 for the first time in a week.

- Alcoa is up 4% after the company firmly topped consensus expectations in its Q3 report and struck a positive tone about the industry, citing improvements in the European market and a stronger Chinese market. The company is projecting 12% demand growth in China, up from prior forecast of 11%. Yum Brands is down 8.3% after missing top- and bottom-line expectations and warning that its China KFC business is not improving as quickly as anticipated.

- Jos. A Bank disclosed that it had offered to buy Men's Warehouse for approximately $2.3B in cash, or $48/shr, a 42% premium to the closing price the day before the offer was made on Sept 17th. Men's Warehouse rejected the deal, claiming it did not fully value the company and did not remedy potential anti-trust concerns.

***Looking Ahead***
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 9.50%
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow data
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-Year Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho speaks at Economist Association Conference
- 13:45 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) in Switzerland
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Sept 17-18 FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (US) President Obama expected to formally nominate Janel Yellen as next Fed Chairman
- 18:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi speaks in Cambridge, Massachusetts
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept Employment Change: +15.0e Ke v -10.8K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior




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