User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday October 9, 2013 - 19:30:53 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Imre Speizer

 

The US fiscal stalemate remained the main influence on markets, the optimism around earlier news dove Yellen will be nominated as the next Fed Chairperson fading. Even the FOMC minutes, which revealed most members felt it appropriate to taper this year, were cast as redundant in light of the current government shutdown. S&P500 futures fell 1.0% after midday London, making a fresh one-month low, but recovered early NY.

6:18AM, 10 Oct 2013

 

Market Wrap:

Global market sentiment: The US fiscal stalemate remained the main influence on markets, the optimism around earlier news dove Yellen will be nominated as the next Fed Chairperson fading. Even the FOMC minutes, which revealed most members felt it appropriate to taper this year, were cast as redundant in light of the current government shutdown. S&P500 futures fell 1.0% after midday London, making a fresh one-month low, but recovered early NY.

 

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields had already risen from 2.61% to 2.67% when the FOMC minutes revealed more appetite for tapering, particularly weighted to treasuries, than the market had earlier believed. However the reaction was miniscule, indeed yields are lower at 2.64% as we write. The 10yr auction results were mixed, awarded at market yield but with a sub-average bid-cover ratio. 1mth tbill rates continued to climb, reaching 0.44%. Australian 3yr government bond yields (implied by futures) fell from 3.09% to 3.04% while the 10yr yield fell from 4.04% to 4.00%.

 

Currencies: The US dollar extended yesterday’s rebound. EUR fell from 1.3560 to 1.3486. USD/JPY rose from 97.12 to 97.64 before retracing. AUD rose from 0.9430 to 0.9464 before reversing to 0.9423 after midday London. NZD was similarly confined to a 0.8278-0.8320 range. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.1370 and 1.1400.

Economic Wrap:

The FOMC Minutes showed that most officials expected tapering to start in 2013, but many were also concerned about significant risks to the economy, including from fiscal policy, indicating the September vote to not taper was close.

 

German industrial production rose 1.4% in Aug, offsetting the (revised lesser) fall of 1.1% in July, thus restoring the level of production to about where it was at the end of the second quarter, after rising quite sharply in June. The detail showed manufacturing and mining reversing a 1.8% July fall with a 2.1% Aug rise, but the first fall in construction, down 1.9%, since May.

 

UK industrial production fell 1.1% in Aug, paced by a 1.2% fall in factories’ output. All the utilities, mining and energy were lower too. The annual pace of growth in industrial production fell further to –1.5% yr. This year’s surge in the UK factory PMI simply is not being reflected in hard data on output of the industrial sector (as in the US with the ISM factory survey well-outpacing the Fed’s IP data). Despite the latest UK IP fall, August exports rose 1.1%, but that was a weak bounce following July’s 7.6% fall. With imports about flat, the visible trade deficit narrowed a bit from £9.9bn to £9.6bn in Aug, not enough to suggest any contribution to Q3 GDP growth from net exports. Separately, the BRC reported that shop prices remained disinflationary at –0.2% yr in Sep, from –0.5% yr in Aug.

Market Outlooks:

Event risk today: NZ has manufacturing PMI, but the day’s highlight will be Australia’s employment report. Westpac expects 20,000 jobs were added in September, against the consensus expectation of 15,000. There are speeches from ECB-head Draghi and Fed members Bullard and Williams to watch.

 

NZD/USD 1 day: Struggling to push above 0.8340, we favour a test of 0.8280 below today.

 

NZD/USD 1-3 month: The Fed’s surprising delay in tapering QE should support NZD/USD during the next few months. NZ fundamentals push in the same direction so NZD/USD towards 0.86 is expected.

 

AUD/USD 1 day: Near term momentum has slowed and 0.9460 above should be sticky today. Favour a test of 0.9420 below today, although Au labour data surprises will dominate.

 

AUD/USD 1-3 month: Better Chinese data and the Fed's "no taper" decision suggest the AUD should remain bid with a possible move to 0.9600. However, the US debt ceiling/ Government shutdown issue should cap gains in the near term.

 

AUD/NZD 1 day: Momentum is positive, suggesting a test of 1.1400 above during the next few days. Au labour data today will be key.

 

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The downtrend since March should eventually resume and targets sub-1.1000 during the months ahead. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.

 

NZ swap yields 1 day: In response to changes in US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open down 1bp at 3.46% and the 10yr should open down 1bp at 4.98%.

 

NZ  swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrends since June 2012 remains intact despite the downward correction unfolding at present (the 10yr swap should fall to at least 4.80%). By Dec-2013 the 2yr could reach 3.80% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.

 

 

 

 

 

 

© Copyright 2013 Westpac Bank Corporation

 

Terms and conditions.

1. WIBIQ is a service provided by Westpac Institutional Bank (Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 AFSL and Australian credit licence 233714) here referred to as “Westpac”. 2. Your access to this service is subject to these terms and conditions, the Westpac Privacy Statement, notices, disclaimers and any other statements contained on this website. 3. You agree that any view or opinions expressed in the articles or podcasts contained in WIB IQ are the author's own and may not necessarily reflect the view or opinions of Westpac. 4. You agree that any commentary contained in WIBIQ is not intended as personal advice and should not be relied upon as such by you. 5. WIB IQ may contain information in relation to certain financial products. Westpac makes no recommendation to buy, hold or sell these financial products, nor does it make any representations or warranties regarding the financial products. You should make your own decision in relation to the financial products based on your own enquiries, the information contained in the relevant disclosure documents, and the suitability of the relevant financial products to your own investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

 

Disclaimer.

Things you should know: Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.

If you are located in Australia, this material and access to this website is provided to you solely for your own use and in your own capacity as a wholesale client of Westpac Institutional Bank being a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 AFSL 233714 (‘Westpac’). If you are located outside of Australia, this material and access to this website is provided to you as outlined below.

This material and this website contain general commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. This material and this website may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure the information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac and its related entities intend by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. The information contained in this material and this website does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter a legally binding contract. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this material and this website are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

Transactions involving carbon give rise to substantial risk (including regulatory risk) and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Statements setting out a concise description of the characteristics of carbon units, Australian carbon credit units and eligible international emissions units (respectively) are available at www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au as mentioned in section 202 of the Clean Energy Act 2011, section 162 of the Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act 2011 and section 61 of the Australian National Registry of Emissions Units Act 2011. You should consider each such statement in deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, any carbon unit, Australian carbon credit unit or eligible international emissions unit.

 

Additional information if you are located outside of Australia

New Zealand: The current disclosure statement for the New Zealand division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 or Westpac New Zealand Limited can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz. Westpac Institutional Bank products and services are provided by either Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (New Zealand division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited. For further information please refer to the Product Disclosure Statement (available from your Relationship Manager) for any product for which a Product Disclosure Statement is required, or applicable customer agreement. Download the Westpac NZ QFE Group Financial Advisers Act 2008 Disclosure Statement at www.westpac.co.nz.

China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India: Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Westpac Hong Kong Branch holds a banking license and is subject to supervision by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Westpac Hong Kong branch also holds a license issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activity. Westpac Shanghai and Beijing Branches hold banking licenses and are subject to supervision by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). Westpac Mumbai Branch holds a banking license from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and subject to regulation and supervision by the RBI.

U.K.: Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. This material and this website and any information contained therein is directed at a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (b) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may otherwise be lawfully communicated, falling within Article 49(1) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). The investments to which this material and this website relates are only available to and any invitation, offer or agreement to subscribe, purchase or otherwise acquire such investments will be engaged in only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely upon this material and this website or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this material and this website is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. With this in mind, Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this material and this website to any third party. In particular this material and this website, website content and, in each case, any copies thereof may not be taken, transmitted or distributed, directly or indirectly into any restricted jurisdiction.

U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM.

Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.

The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.

For the purposes of Regulation AC only: Each analyst whose name appears in this report certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst about any and all of the subject companies and their securities and (2) no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific views or recommendations in this report.

For XYLO Foreign Exchange clients: This information is provided to you solely for your own use and is not to be distributed to any third parties. XYLO Foreign Exchange is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 and Australian credit licence 233714. Information is current as at date shown on the publication. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. XYLO Foreign Exchange’s combined Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement can be obtained by calling XYLO Foreign Exchange on 1300 995 639, or by emailing customercare@XYLO.com.au.

The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105