Thursday October 10, 2013 - 03:50:32 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Oct -2013 -0348 GMT
Dow (14802.98, +26.45) rose slightly in welcome of Jannet Yellen’s nomination to the Fed Chair. Of course, some short-covering is justified after the long fall from 15676 (19-Sep). Nasdaq (3677.78, -17.06) has continued to fall, though and may now target the support at 3600. There is danger of a Bear SHS on the Dow. Careful about that.
Dax (8516.69, -39.20) is down near a 3 week low. A further dip and we may see it targeting 8400.
Nikkei (14155.37, +117.53) bounced from the 21-Day MA support and has moved past 14100. We may see it targeting 14400 as the Yen continues to weaken against Dollar. Shanghai (2204.54, -7.23) has dipped the target of 2225-2250 can be reached if it does not dip further.
Nifty (5007.45, +79.05) has bounced after the trade deficit numbers came in lower than expected. We may see a target of 6050.
Gold (1304.40) has fallen further on US Dollar strength. The resistance at 1325 is holding. A break below 1300 and we may see it targeting 1275. Silver (21.905) has dipped and fallen below 22. A support at 21.50 may help Silver to bounce back to 23.
Copper (3.241) has fallen below the support at 3.275. We might see it targeting 3.20 in the coming days.
Nymex WTI (101.68) declined after a Government report showed that the US inventory grew. The resistance at 104 has held. Brent (109.13) has dipped. It ranged between 108-110..
US Dollar Index (80.557) has risen sharply continuuing to bounce off the 200-week MA. The FOMC Minutes showed that there could be tapering this year.
Euro (1.3500) remains well below 1.3600. Surprsingly, the Pound (1.5924) has declined sharply, coming down from levels above 1.61. The EURGBP (0.8475) has risen sharply as a result and could move higher towards 0.8500. The GBPUSD could see some trend Support near current levels.
Dollar Yen (97.682) has built on its gains, bouncing up from the 200-day MA support near 96.83. It could now move up towards 98 and maybe even 99. Aussie (0.9407) weakened as jobs growth was less than expected. It remains stable in a range of 0.94-0.95
R-currencies are overall weak except the Brazilian Real (2.2009) which rose on speculation that Janet Yellen's dovishness would support Brazill's efforts to strengthen the currency. Dollar Rupee (61.93) climbed yesterday after the trade data was released. It is testing Resistance in the 62.20-62.50 region at the Open today, weakening on overall Dollar strength. Need to see whether this Resistance holds/ breaks.
Sharp rise in the US 10Yr (2.67%) from 2.63% the day before. The 5Yr (1.44%) and 30Yr (3.75%) have also moved up, but lesser than the 10Yr. So, the kink in the Curve mentioned yesterday has got a little ironed out. TBills maturing around 17-Oct continue to see increase in rates, but the rest of the Curve is not feeling a lot of stress as the market believes a US default will be shortlived, even if it happens.
European yields are stable. Italy (10Yr 4.38%) and Spain (10Yr 4.34%) are trending sideways for now. The German 10Yr (1.82%) is moving up slightly alongwith US yields. But, the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.19%) has been coming down since -0.10% (20-Sep). It is trading at a trend Support now. But, if the Support breaks, the Spread could fall towards -0.28%. This could pull the Euro lower.
The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.52%) came down a little more yesterday, but has crucial Support at 8.50% now. It needs to be seen if this Support will break today or not.
0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Labour Force
... Expected 15.20 K ...Previous -10.20 K ...Actual 9.1K
11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %
UK Trade Balance
...Actual -9.63 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.94 £ (Bln)
IN Trade bal
...Actual -6.7$ Bln ...Previous -10.9 $ Bln
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