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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Various EMU members' industrial production data comes in below expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Various EMU members' industrial production data comes in below expectations
Thu, 10 Oct 2013 5:12 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Brazil again raises SELIC rate by another 50bps (5th hike in cycle)
- Bank of Korea (BOK) holds 7-day Repo Rate unchanged for the 5th straight time (as expected); cuts 2014 growth outlook
- Australia Sept Unemployment Rate falls as more leave the labor force; Overall employment data not as strong as expected
- China Premier Li Keqiang: China GDP expected to stay above its official growth target of 7.5% in the first three quarters
- Japan machine orders at 3-month high as govt raises assessment on the sector
- Overnight press suggested a temporary deal to extend the US borrowing capacity for 4-6 weeks
- Hong Kong Exchanges raised haircut on US bills maturing within one year for margin cover
- Various EMU members' industrial production data comes in below expectations (including France, Italy, Finland and Sweden)
- Nordic inflation data comes in tame
- ECB/PBoC sign bilateral swap agreement (ahead of G20 meeting in Wash DC)
- Italy 12-month Bill auction seen solid with yields falling and better bid-to-cover


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Sept Consumer Confidence Index: 45.4 v 43.5e; first MoM rise in 4 months

- (FI) Finland Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -2.8%e
- (FR) France Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.7%e
- (FR) France Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.7%e

- (DK) Denmark Sept CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- (EU) ECB 100M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 41M prior; 46.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 72.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Aug Industrial Production M/M: -2.3%% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.9% v -4.1%e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Industrial Orders M/M: -0.2% v +0.1e; Y/Y: -1.2% v 0.6% prior
- (SE) Sweden Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e; CPI Level: 315.05 v 315.29e
- (SE) Sweden Sept Underlying CPI (CPIF) M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e
- (NL) Netherlands Sept CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.8% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e
- (IT) Italy Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.6%e; Y/Y: -7.6% v -1.2% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.2%e
- (NO) Norway Sept CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1%e

- (NO) Norway Sept CPI Underlying M/M: 0.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.2%e
- (NO) Norway Sept PPI (including Oil) M/M: 0.5% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 1.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.2% v -7.7% prior
- (GR) Greece July Unemployment Rate: 27.6% v 28.0%e; matches revised record high

Fixed income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.5B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.999% v 1.340% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.72x v 1.36x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,385, DAX +0.90% at 8,595, CAC-40 +1.3% at 4,179, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 9,571, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 18,820, SMI +0.80% at 7,817, S&P 500 Futures +0.80% at 1,661]

- Market Focal Points: Fed minutes, equities broadly higher as various US press outlets noted progress in the debt talks, Peripheral indices outperform, Technology shares gain following guidance from Hewlett-Packard

By Sector
- Financials
[Gagfah GFJ.DE +3% (refinancing update)]
- Consumer Discretionary [WH Smith SMWH.UK +6% (raised dividend), Prosiebensat PSM.DE +3.5% (broker commentary), Hays HAS.UK +1.5% (Q1 LFL fees +2%), Givaudan GIVN.CH flat (Q3 sales in line)]
- Technology [SAP SAP.DE +1.5% (guidance from HP)]
- Industrials [Astaldi AST.IT +5%(contract award); Rheinmetall RHM.DE -2.5% (credit rating downgrade)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [Talvivaara Mining TALV.UK -19% (liquidity concerns)]
- Eurostoxx50 Sectors [Technology +1.6%, Financials +1.4%, Basic Materials +1%, Telecom +0.8%, Industrials +0.8%, Consumer Cyclical +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.60, Energy +0.6%, Utilities +0.3%]

Speakers:
- Hong Kong Exchanges: raises haircut on US bills maturing within one year for margin cover
- ECB announced a 3-year bilateral currency swap line agreement of CNY350B with People's Bank of China (PBoC)

- ECB's Coeure: Swap agreement recognizes growing role of yuan in international financial flows
- Greece Dep Fin Min Staikouras stated that the country would achieve its 2013 fiscal targets. He added that Greece posted 9-month Primary Surplus of 2.6B at Central Govt level (**Note: On Oct 9th IMF stated it expected Greece to miss 2014 bailout budget target)
- Japan PM Abe stated that leaders have created momentum towards Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement by end 2013 and sought to continue to call on South Korea and China for talks
- Japan Vice Fin Min Aichi: Reiterates must monitor effect of US debt issues on markets, hopes US resolves the issues soon
- OECD's Gurria: Failure to raise US debt ceiling would push OECD region back into recession
- EU Energy Commissioner Oettinger said to favor EU-wide renewable energy subsidies
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor upward by 5 kopecks to 32.35-39.35 in dollar/euro basket (9th adjustment since Aug)
- Germany was the only gold seller under the ECB agreement (**Note: The agreement, which covers the gold sales of the Eurosystem central banks, Sweden and Switzerland from September 2009 to 2014)
- Switzerland to limit short selling with new rules, effective Nov 11th
- Germany Bundesbank VP Lautenschlaeger
and Bafin chief Koenig: Banking sector should expect hard stress tests

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD was initially steady in European trade but wobbling a bit ahead of the NY morning from its best levels. Dealers noted that a couple of articles in the overnight press which suggested a temporary deal to extend the US borrowing capacity for 4-6 weeks. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.3500 level for the bulk of the morning but drifting higher ahead of the NY morning at 1.3580. Initially dealers viewed any bounce would likely to be minor while the break of 1.3480 suggested that there could be more downside in the pair towards1.3400-10 area (the upside breakout when the Fed failed to taper back in Sept).
- EUR/SEK hit 4-month highs above 8.81 level (weaker Swedish currency) following disappointing industrial production data and tamer CPI in Sweden

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Constancio: ECB not actively preparing to provide additional LTRO loans for banks; The ECB has had general discussions about which tools to use but have not chosen anything specific yet.
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: Staff economic outlook justifies the ECB's easing bias in future monetary policy decisions; Still has the potential to cut rates
- (EU) ECB's Weidman: There is no need for another LTRO, there should be no automatic ECB reaction to changing money market rates; some banks may need additional capital after asset quality reviews and stress tests
- (EU) Foreign companies are issuing more Euro denominated bonds
-(GR) IMF expects Greece to miss 2014 bailout budget target; Projects 1.1% GDP budget surplus compared to target of 1.5%.
- (GR) Greece Parliamentary Budget Office Report: Not possible for country to return to capital markets to refinance its debt at reasonable returns as size of debt will deter possible lenders - financial press
-(IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: cabinet approved deficit adjustment decree to bring 2013 deficit within 3% of GDP
-(US) House Speaker spokesperson indicates that the GOP is to send a small group to the White House; Speaker himself and some leadership will attend but not full caucus
- (US) Reportedly House Republican leaders are mulling a short-term debt ceiling extension; no decision has been made about length of extension or whether or not to attach conditions - press
- (US) House minority leader Pelosi: Have not heard short-term offer discussed - press conf
-(US) Fitch Ratings continues to believe that an agreement will ultimately be reached to end the current political impasse in order to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a 'technical' default
- (US) DBRS rating agency places United States rating on review with potential negative implications

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Aug Gold Production Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 3.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.19x prior (Sept 26th)
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept CPI M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.5%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est V 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1%e V 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.9% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic. to sell Bills
- 06:30 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 06:45 (Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON1.0B in Bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 4th: No est v $514.9B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.0%e v +5.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 5.4% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.9%e v 1.0% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 07:45 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda speaks at CFR in New York
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 311Ke v 308K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.86Me v 2.925M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales (**Note was not released last week)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
- 09:45 (US) Fed's Bullard to speak on Monetary Policy in St. Louis
- 10:00 (ES) Spain Econ Min speaks at Forum in Washington
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 Bills
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 12:00 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda talks at Bretton Woods Committee
- 12:20 (EU) ECB's Draghi Speaks in New York
- 14:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on the Economy in Boise, Idaho
- 15:00 (DE) ECB's Assmussen (Germany) in Washington DC
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%
- G20 Summit

Delayed - 08:30 (US) Sept Import Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -0.4% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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