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Thursday October 10, 2013 - 19:42:03 GMT
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Weekly jobless spike -- special factors. Movement on Budget?
|Weekly jobless spike -- special factors. Movement on Budget?|
11 October 2013 00:00 gmt
| CALENDAR: Far East: CN- Trade.Europe: No Major Data. North America: CA- Employment, US- data postponed (shutdown)|
||JGB 0.66% +1bp
||Asia Close Lower|
||Bund 1.87% +6bp
||U.S. 2.69% +4 bp
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- Trade, CA- Employment
- U.S. weekly jobless claims spiked higher in the latest week. Data were distorted by California computer issues and by the government shutdown. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- As expected, the Bank of England kept policy steady today. Very recent economic data has been softening a bit.
- There might have been some softening in the U.S fiscal debate, and this talk has given markets a lift Budget/debt default debate negotiations are now focused on October 1. Odds favor a six week extension to the debt limit to November 22. Then we start all over again.
- Australian September Employment data were not as strong as expected, but the unemployment rate fell. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Janet Yellen is the candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. She is widely seen as a policy dove. We would characterize her as more of a moderate. Based on what we see currently, her Senate approval for the job should not be a problem..
- The latest Fed Meeting Minutes confirmed that the central bank is of many minds on the issue..
- Top items on Friday are employment figures from Canada and U.S. Retail Sales data (likely postponed).
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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