Tuesday October 15, 2013 - 03:49:00 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 15-Oct -2013 -0342 GMT
Equities trade largely higher on hope of a budget resolution in the USA, but could run into long-term Resistances next week.
US Equities were open yesterday despite the Columbus Day holiday. The Dow (15301.26, +64.15, +0.42%) rose further. It could run into some profit-taking near 15500 tomorrow, but looks headed up to 16000-100 over the next couple of weeks. The Dax (8723) was flat yesterday but remains in a broad uptrend. Some Resistance could be seen near 8800-900 though.
Most of Asia-Pac is in the green today, barring China (-0.37%), Malaysia (-0.06%) and Singapore (-0.45%). Australia is up almost 1% and the Nikkei (14480, +0.52%) is trading higher after yesterday's holiday. A test of crucial Resistance at 15000 is likely.
The Nifty (6112.70) closed marginally higher yesterday despite the higher WPI inflation data. A rise past 6150, if seen, can target 6240. But, we could see profit-taking coming in there.
Gold (1272) has remained stable since yesterday. It is targeting the support near 1250. A decline to 1225 will be seen if the support is broken. Silver (21.20) is trading just above the support at 21 within a broad downtrend that can target 20. But, there is Support at 20.88 that needs to be watched.
Copper (3.2965) has risen past earlier resistance at 3.275 and could rise to 3.40 on a break above 3.30.
Nymex WTI (102.34) is up but is targeting the support at 100 which may help it to bounce back to 103-104. Brent (110.91) has dipped. The 13-day MA support at current levels may help it to bounce to 112.5 but a break in the support and we may see it falling further to 108.
Euro (1.3556) has dipped a bit but remains ranged. It may make a steady move towards 1.365-1.37 in the coming weeks. Dollar Index (80.336) had rebounded sharply from 79.85 and has remained ranged for the past 3 days. It may continue to be ranged for some more time before it decides its further movement.
Pound (1.5982) has been falling in the past two days against the Dollar. If it falls further a crucial support in the 1.59-1.574-1.568 region may help it to bounce back to 1.60. Dollar Yen (98.49) has dipped slightly but faces support of 100-Day MA at current levels. If this holds we may see the pair rising towards 99.
Aussie (0.9524) has risen sharply and is targeting 0.96 in the coming days. R-Currencies are mixed. The Ringgit (3.180) and the Real (2.177) are strong while the Rand (9.896) and the Ruble (32.307) are consolidating sideways. Dollar Rupee (61.55) rose yesterday and may now test immediate resistance at 61.60. If this breaks, it may test another crucial resistance at 62.00.
The market is more or less as prepared as it wants to be for a potential US debt default. The consensus more or less is that either the Republicans will cave in before 17th Oct, or that a default will be short-lived. Near term T-Bills have been sold, of course, but the market has not collapsed/ frozen up. The 10-Yr (2.71%) has moved up a bit more. It can find Resistance at 2.75% by tomorrow. But, if no deal emerges finally, we could see a sharp rise to 3.0%.
Indian Inflation (WPI 6.46% and CPI 9.84%) came in very high and will make it hard for the RBI to lower interest rates in its meeting on 29th October. The 10-Yr GOI (8.57%) could move up towards 8.75%.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK CPI
...Expected 2.6 % ...Previous 2.7 %
...Actual 6.46 % ...Previous - 6.10 %
...Actual 9.84% ...Previous 9.52 %
EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual 1% ...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous -1.50 %
EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Actual -2.1 % ...Expected -2.40 % ...Previous -2.66 %
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